Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li style="text-align: left;">WTR-CMI for the week. It was another down week for the market, with both the Russell 2000 (down 0.5%) and the S&amp;P 500 (down 0.8%) losing value.</li><li style="text-align: left;">Our WTR-CMI index underperformed, losing 1.8%, dragged down by NGVT, ASH, and EAF, as they delivered disappointing results and provided more cautious guidance.</li><li style="text-align: left;">April auto sales looking up. Germany’s new passenger vehicle sales increased 13% Y/Y, while French sales increased 22% Y/Y.</li></ul>

WTR-CMI for the week. It was another down week for the market, with both the Russell 2000 (down 0.5%) and the S&amp;P 500 (down 0.8%) losing value.Our WTR-CMI index underperformed, losing 1.8%, dragged down by NGVT, ASH, and EAF, as they delivered disappointing results and provided more cautious guidance.April auto sales looking up. Germany’s new passenger vehicle sales increased 13% Y/Y, while French sales increased 22% Y/Y.

Mat-Chem Notes : For the Week Ended May 5, 2023

<ul><li>WTR-CMI last week. In what was a mixed week for the market, with S&amp;P 500 appreciating 0.9% and the Russell 2000 slipping 1.3%, our WTR-CMI index of 30 specialty chemicals and materials stocks outperformed both broader indexes by appreciating 1.1%, led by a recovery in prices of lithium stocks, which took a tumble the previous week after the announcement of the Chilean government’s intention to increase its financial participation in large lithium projects in the country.</li><li>Better weather drives stronger planting progress. Following last year’s planting delays caused by unseasonal weather, the 2023 planting season in the US is picking up the pace after a slower start, with both corn and soybean planting well ahead of last year and the five-year average, boding well for North American crop protection and the fertilizer market, at least when it comes to demand.</li><li>Chinese auto sales look to rise. According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, the country should see a 50% surge in Y/Y new passenger vehicle sales in April, following a strong March, compared with the COVID lockdown period a year ago.</li></ul>

WTR-CMI last week. In what was a mixed week for the market, with S&amp;P 500 appreciating 0.9% and the Russell 2000 slipping 1.3%, our WTR-CMI index of 30 specialty chemicals and materials stocks outperformed both broader indexes by appreciating 1.1%, led by a recovery in prices of lithium stocks, which took a tumble the previous week after the announcement of the Chilean government’s intention to increase its financial participation in large lithium projects in the country.Better weather drives stronger planting progress. Following last year’s planting delays caused by unseasonal weather, the 2023 planting season in the US is picking up the pace after a slower start, with both corn and soybean planting well ahead of last year and the five-year average, boding well for North American crop protection and the fertilizer market, at least when it comes to demand.Chinese auto sales look to rise. According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, the country should see a 50% surge in Y/Y new passenger vehicle sales in April, following a strong March, compared with the COVID lockdown period a year ago.

Mat-Chem Notes : For the Week Ended April 28, 2023

<ul><li>WTR-CMI last week. In what was a mixed week for the market, with the Russell 2000 appreciating 0.6% and the S&amp;P 500 remaining virtually unchanged at (0.1%), our WTR-CMI index of 30 chemicals and materials technology stocks underperformed, declining 0.3%, as lithium stocks led by ALB suffered from Chile’s decision to nationalize its lithium mining industry, once existing contracts with private companies (mainly SQM and ALB) expire.</li><li>SHW exits another paint market. When the company acquired Valspar, it did not only shore up its presence in the North American big-box distribution channel and expand its industrial coatings business, but it also gained exposure to non-North American paint markets, specifically China and Australia.</li><li>SHW divested the Australian business two years ago and now has also found a buyer (Akzo) for its Chinese paint business, which may have contributed to SHW topping the list of WTR-CMI stocks appreciating last week.</li></ul>

WTR-CMI last week. In what was a mixed week for the market, with the Russell 2000 appreciating 0.6% and the S&amp;P 500 remaining virtually unchanged at (0.1%), our WTR-CMI index of 30 chemicals and materials technology stocks underperformed, declining 0.3%, as lithium stocks led by ALB suffered from Chile’s decision to nationalize its lithium mining industry, once existing contracts with private companies (mainly SQM and ALB) expire.SHW exits another paint market. When the company acquired Valspar, it did not only shore up its presence in the North American big-box distribution channel and expand its industrial coatings business, but it also gained exposure to non-North American paint markets, specifically China and Australia.SHW divested the Australian business two years ago and now has also found a buyer (Akzo) for its Chinese paint business, which may have contributed to SHW topping the list of WTR-CMI stocks appreciating last week.

Mat-Chem Notes : For the Week Ended April 21, 2023

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/almonty-industries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23864:1" rel="noopener">Almonty Industries (AII CN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38824:1" rel="noopener">Standard Lithium (SLI US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hubei-zhenhua-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30013:1" rel="noopener">Hubei Zhenhua Chemical Co Ltd (603067 CH)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US)</a> in December.</li>
<li>The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 18.2% and in a round-trip trade of US$550m.</li>
<li>There have been large creations in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US)</a> as strategic metals and rare earths stocks have surged in price over the last few months.</li>
</ul>



Almonty Industries (AII CN), Standard Lithium (SLI US) and Hubei Zhenhua Chemical Co Ltd (603067 CH) will be added to the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) in December.
The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 18.2% and in a round-trip trade of US$550m.
There have been large creations in VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) as strategic metals and rare earths stocks have surged in price over the last few months.


MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 3 Adds and Other Changes; US$550m Trade

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Policy-Backed anchor: Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass is now Washington’s flagship lithium project, backed by a $2.26bn DOE loan, GM’s $625m JV, and a potential U.S. equity stake.</li>
<li>Industrial strategy shift: The Trump administration is moving from grants to direct equity and loans, echoing China’s model of securing critical minerals through state capital and long-term offtakes.</li>
<li>Bigger picture: The key opportunity is anticipating U.S. intervention beyond lithium — into nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earths — as it builds a parallel to China’s strategy.</li>
</ul>


Policy-Backed anchor: Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass is now Washington’s flagship lithium project, backed by a $2.26bn DOE loan, GM’s $625m JV, and a potential U.S. equity stake.
Industrial strategy shift: The Trump administration is moving from grants to direct equity and loans, echoing China’s model of securing critical minerals through state capital and long-term offtakes.
Bigger picture: The key opportunity is anticipating U.S. intervention beyond lithium — into nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earths — as it builds a parallel to China’s strategy.


Matching China’s Playbook: U.S. Turns to Lithium Americas

Canada

Lithium Americas Corp. operates as a mining company. The Company mines, produces, and supplies lithium. Lithium Americas conducts its business operations in Argentina and Canada.

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Lithium Americas (LAC US)

Mat-Chem Notes : For the Week Ended May 5, 2023

WTR-CMI for the week. It was another down week for the market, with both the Russell 2000 (down 0.5%) and the S&P 500 (down 0.8%) losing value.

Water Tower Research

Mat-Chem Notes : For the Week Ended April 28, 2023

WTR-CMI last week. In what was a mixed week for the market, with S&P 500 appreciating 0.9% and the Russell 2000 slipping 1.3%

Water Tower Research

Mat-Chem Notes : For the Week Ended April 21, 2023

In what was a mixed week for the market, with the Russell 2000 appreciating 0.6% and the S&P 500 remaining virtually unchanged at (0.1%)

Water Tower Research

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 3 Adds and Other Changes; US$550m Trade

There are 3 adds for the REMX in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 18.2% and round-trip trade is US$550m. There have been big creations in REMX...

Brian Freitas

Matching China’s Playbook: U.S. Turns to Lithium Americas

Lithium Americas' Thacker Pass project leads US shift to state-backed mineral investments, mirroring China's strategy for securing critical minerals.

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Mat-Chem Notes : For the Week Ended May 5, 2023

WTR-CMI for the week. It was another down week for the market, with both the Russell 2000 (down 0.5%) and the S&P 500 (down 0.8%) losing value.

Water Tower Research

Mat-Chem Notes : For the Week Ended April 28, 2023

WTR-CMI last week. In what was a mixed week for the market, with S&P 500 appreciating 0.9% and the Russell 2000 slipping 1.3%

Water Tower Research

Mat-Chem Notes : For the Week Ended April 21, 2023

In what was a mixed week for the market, with the Russell 2000 appreciating 0.6% and the S&P 500 remaining virtually unchanged at (0.1%)

Water Tower Research

MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 3 Adds and Other Changes; US$550m Trade

There are 3 adds for the REMX in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 18.2% and round-trip trade is US$550m. There have been big creations in REMX...

Brian Freitas

Matching China’s Playbook: U.S. Turns to Lithium Americas

​Lithium Americas' Thacker Pass project leads US shift to state-backed mineral investments, mirroring China's strategy for securing critical minerals.

Rahul Jain

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 3 Adds and Other Changes; US$550m Trade

Lithium Americas' Thacker Pass project leads US shift to state-backed mineral investments, mirroring China's strategy for securing critical minerals.