High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>While market commentary and cable business media talking heads were focused on arguing about the definition of a recession and whether the US economy is currently in one this week, there were notable developments in the back half of the week that came from DC that have significant market implications moving forward. </li><li>The arguments back and forth of whether or not we are in a recession is classic noise that investors should be tune out as GDP figures released this past week are backwards looking and the labeling is simply used as signaling for political points. </li><li>First, Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell delivered the expected 75bps of interest rate increase this past meeting, but his comments were interpreted by many that the period of significant outsized hikes of 75bps are now behind us and that lower hikes will soon follow for the remainder of the year.</li></ul>

While market commentary and cable business media talking heads were focused on arguing about the definition of a recession and whether the US economy is currently in one this week, there were notable developments in the back half of the week that came from DC that have significant market implications moving forward. The arguments back and forth of whether or not we are in a recession is classic noise that investors should be tune out as GDP figures released this past week are backwards looking and the labeling is simply used as signaling for political points. First, Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell delivered the expected 75bps of interest rate increase this past meeting, but his comments were interpreted by many that the period of significant outsized hikes of 75bps are now behind us and that lower hikes will soon follow for the remainder of the year.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global rare earth/strategic metals stocks are breaking out of bases, giving us a high degree of confidence that price and RS appreciation is likely to continue.</li>
<li>Looking at the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX-US), it remains topside an 8-year base and displays a bullish inflection after consolidating for 8.5 months.</li>
<li>Buying: MP Materials (MP-US), Lithium Americas (LAC-US, LAC-CA), Livent (LTHM-US), AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group (AMG-NL), Pilbara Minerals (PLS-AU), Liontown Resources (LTR-AU), AVZ Minerals (AVZ-AU), and Standard Lithium (SLI-CA)</li>
</ul>


Global rare earth/strategic metals stocks are breaking out of bases, giving us a high degree of confidence that price and RS appreciation is likely to continue.
Looking at the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX-US), it remains topside an 8-year base and displays a bullish inflection after consolidating for 8.5 months.
Buying: MP Materials (MP-US), Lithium Americas (LAC-US, LAC-CA), Livent (LTHM-US), AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group (AMG-NL), Pilbara Minerals (PLS-AU), Liontown Resources (LTR-AU), AVZ Minerals (AVZ-AU), and Standard Lithium (SLI-CA)


Buying Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Stocks: MP, LAC, LTHM, AMG-NL, PLS-AU, LTR-AU, AVZ-AU, SLI-CA

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.</li>
<li>As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.</li>
<li>Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.</li>
</ul>


The market continues to send mixed signals - some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well.
As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&amp;P 500 is above 4495, we cannot be bearish.
Treasury yields are not breaking down below 1.40%-1.45% support on the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.76% support on the 30-year Treasury yield.


Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Last month our text-mined indicators pointed to a year-end surge in raw materials restocking coupled with an extraordinary spike in general reporting on price increases globally</li>
<li>With a seasonal slowdown ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday and mobility restrictions, the restocking has faded; buildups in iron ore, steel and zinc inventories confirm a pause in momentum</li>
<li>Despite crowded positioning, copper maintained low beta to mining equities with a single-digit correction vs. the equities correcting closer to -10%; so far both remain near 50DMAs</li>
<li>Our text-mined copper sentiment indicator peaked at a multi-year high of +4.2x STDEVs on January 2, pulling back in recent weeks closer to neutral readings; however sharp, attribution finds the pullback is still primarily associated with pre-LNY seasonal slowdown and the relatively firm USD (as conviction levels on structural copper tightness remain high amid lean inventories)</li>
<li>Lithium sentiment stands out in the YTD, improving to +2x STDEVs on the lithium carbonate spot recovery and improving EV data points</li>
<li>Iron ore and steel diffusion indices have been dropping sharply in the YTD on falling utilization, building inventories and compressing mill margins, finally down to outright negative territory on first signs of vol in iron ore this week</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tool text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </div>


Last month our text-mined indicators pointed to a year-end surge in raw materials restocking coupled with an extraordinary spike in general reporting on price increases globally
With a seasonal slowdown ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday and mobility restrictions, the restocking has faded; buildups in iron ore, steel and zinc inventories confirm a pause in momentum
Despite crowded positioning, copper maintained low beta to mining equities with a single-digit correction vs. the equities correcting closer to -10%; so far both remain near 50DMAs
Our text-mined copper sentiment indicator peaked at a multi-year high of +4.2x STDEVs on January 2, pulling back in recent weeks closer to neutral readings; however sharp, attribution finds the pullback is still primarily associated with pre-LNY seasonal slowdown and the relatively firm USD (as conviction levels on structural copper tightness remain high amid lean inventories)
Lithium sentiment stands out in the YTD, improving to +2x STDEVs on the lithium carbonate spot recovery and improving EV data points
Iron ore and steel diffusion indices have been dropping sharply in the YTD on falling utilization, building inventories and compressing mill margins, finally down to outright negative territory on first signs of vol in iron ore this week
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary tool text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot:  Metals Points - Restocking Pauses, Copper Sentiment Pulls Back from Extremes

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a>'s spread to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>'s terms steadily increased subsequent to the US elections, ostensibly over Trump (Musk?) bluster, blowing out to 21% before Xmas.</li>
<li>Overnight, the transaction received the go ahead from CFIUS. Shares popped ~8.2% on the news. The transaction remains subject to investment screening approvals in Australia, Canada and Italy. </li>
<li>Unlike Greenland and the Panama Canal, the takeover of Arcadium should complete "before mid-2025"; possibly this quarter.</li>
</ul>



Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)'s spread to Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)'s terms steadily increased subsequent to the US elections, ostensibly over Trump (Musk?) bluster, blowing out to 21% before Xmas.
Overnight, the transaction received the go ahead from CFIUS. Shares popped ~8.2% on the news. The transaction remains subject to investment screening approvals in Australia, Canada and Italy. 
Unlike Greenland and the Panama Canal, the takeover of Arcadium should complete "before mid-2025"; possibly this quarter.


Rio Tinto/Arcadium: Home Straight After CFIUS Nod

United States

Livent Corporation produces and distributes lithium chemicals. The Company offers lithium chemicals for applications in batteries, agrochemicals, aerospace alloys, greases, pharmaceuticals, polymers, and various industrial applications.

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Livent (LTHM US)

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 8/1

The arguments back and forth of whether or not we are in a recession is classic noise that investors should be tune out as GDP figures released...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Buying Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Stocks: MP, LAC, LTHM, AMG-NL, PLS-AU, LTR-AU, AVZ-AU, SLI-CA

Global rare earth/strategic metals stocks are breaking out of bases, and we expect price and RS appreciation to continue. This also provides us...

Vermilion Research

Continued Absence Of Breakdowns Is A Positive Sign; Many Bottoms-Up Stock Recommendations

As long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&P 500 is above 4495, we...

Vermilion Research

TMI Snapshot: Metals Points - Restocking Pauses, Copper Sentiment Pulls Back from Extremes

The year-end restocking trade has faded into the Lunar New Year, dragging on the reflation trade. Lithium sentiment is the only standout this...

Elan Gore

Rio Tinto/Arcadium: Home Straight After CFIUS Nod

The key reg approvals have been satisfied. Any pullback on Trump blustering is a buy. Trading at a ~3.2% gross return for the Aussie line. That's...

David Blennerhassett

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