Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Stay long in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hs-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7311:1" rel="noopener">HS Holdings (8699 JP)</a>.But beware. It is possible that there is a slightly uncomfortable outcome. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-pharm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:992:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Pharm (068760 KS)</a> is up 37% since the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-healthcare-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23641:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS)</a> merger completed; and Inc is up 22%. That's A LOT of expectation baked in. </li>
<li>NEW NISA details are cute, but governance and corporate buybacks matter more. If better education induces a swing from cash/deposits to risky assets, much of that will happen outside NISA.</li>
</ul>


Stay long in HS Holdings (8699 JP).But beware. It is possible that there is a slightly uncomfortable outcome. 

Celltrion Pharm (068760 KS) is up 37% since the Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)/Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS) merger completed; and Inc is up 22%. That's A LOT of expectation baked in. 
NEW NISA details are cute, but governance and corporate buybacks matter more. If better education induces a swing from cash/deposits to risky assets, much of that will happen outside NISA.


Last Week in Event SPACE: HS Holdings, Celltrion Pharm, NISA, PICC/PICC P&C

<ul>
<li>Stay long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One (2412 JP)</a>. Dai-Ichi Life can pay more, if pushed on pricing. May not be huge, but it could be a few percent or even 10%. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hankook-company-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19369:1" rel="noopener">Hankook &amp; Company (000240 KS)</a>'s family feud goes public. The public tender looks set to fail. Coal in stockings all-round.</li>
<li>If you had any <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a> left over from the rally up to ¥1,300+, get out. There may be a better opportunity later, but not here.</li>
</ul>


Stay long Benefit One (2412 JP). Dai-Ichi Life can pay more, if pushed on pricing. May not be huge, but it could be a few percent or even 10%. 

Hankook &amp; Company (000240 KS)'s family feud goes public. The public tender looks set to fail. Coal in stockings all-round.
If you had any Toyo Construction (1890 JP) left over from the rally up to ¥1,300+, get out. There may be a better opportunity later, but not here.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>As warned in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/newcrest-newmont-merger-fancy-index-shenanigans" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:113359" rel="noopener">Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans</a> in October, the merger construct meant flowfront, index flowback, then later index flowback.</li>
<li>We are now between the second and third events. The data on the third is there, but it won't be obvious to everyone. </li>
<li>There should be a large, not publicly announced, downweight on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40416:1" rel="noopener">Newmont (NEM AU)</a> in the March 2024 index review for the major local indices.</li>
</ul>


As warned in Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans in October, the merger construct meant flowfront, index flowback, then later index flowback.
We are now between the second and third events. The data on the third is there, but it won't be obvious to everyone. 
There should be a large, not publicly announced, downweight on Newmont (NEM AU) in the March 2024 index review for the major local indices.


Newmont's Upcoming (March 2024) ASX Selldown

Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the March 2024 index review.</li>
<li>I expect one change for ASX 20, one change for ASX 100, and four changes for ASX 200 during the March 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Separately, there could also be one intra-review change for ASX 200 in February 2024.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the March 2024 index review.
I expect one change for ASX 20, one change for ASX 100, and four changes for ASX 200 during the March 2024 index rebal event.
Separately, there could also be one intra-review change for ASX 200 in February 2024.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 24: Allkem, Newmont, Costa, and Many More

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a> has entered a new transaction implementation deed with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sociedad-quimica-y-minera-de-chile-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27977:1" rel="noopener">Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US)</a> and Hancock at A$3.70, a 51.6% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The emergence of Hancock and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">Mineral Resources (MIN AU)</a> as substantial shareholders necessitated the new offer. The off-market takeover offer is A$3.65 per share if the scheme fails. </li>
<li>The scheme's completion hinges on MinRes’ acceptance. MinRes could potentially block the scheme but has a history of selling into Hancock offers.</li>
</ul>



Azure Minerals (AZS AU) has entered a new transaction implementation deed with Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US) and Hancock at A$3.70, a 51.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
The emergence of Hancock and Mineral Resources (MIN AU) as substantial shareholders necessitated the new offer. The off-market takeover offer is A$3.65 per share if the scheme fails. 
The scheme's completion hinges on MinRes’ acceptance. MinRes could potentially block the scheme but has a history of selling into Hancock offers.


Azure Minerals (AZS AU): SQM/Hancock Team up for a New Offer

United States

Livent Corporation produces and distributes lithium chemicals. The Company offers lithium chemicals for applications in batteries, agrochemicals, aerospace alloys, greases, pharmaceuticals, polymers, and various industrial applications.

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Livent (LTHM US)

Last Week in Event SPACE: HS Holdings, Celltrion Pharm, NISA, PICC/PICC P&C

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Hankook, Toyo Construction, Hanwha, Tsuruha, Livent/Allkem

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Newmont's Upcoming (March 2024) ASX Selldown

Newmont (NEM AU) will be a big sell in the March S&P/ASX index rebalance with A$1.5bn to sell and a likely ASX20 index deletion to come because...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 24: Allkem, Newmont, Costa, and Many More

I see 20+ ADDs/DELs in total across ASX 20, 50, 100, 200, and 300 in the run up to the March 2024 rebalance. Many names have multiple number of...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Azure Minerals (AZS AU): SQM/Hancock Team up for a New Offer

The scheme's completion hinges on MinRes’ acceptance. MinRes could potentially block the scheme but has a history of selling into Hancock offers....

Arun George

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