Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Late last evening, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a> announced a definitive agreement where Rio will acquire Arcadium for US$5.85/share in cash.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc-2f9bfa3a-65a7-41f9-a157-e59603846420" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40439:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US)</a> closed nearly 31% higher at US$5.55/share and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a> should follow when the stock opens.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a> could move around 40% higher today to catch up with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc-2f9bfa3a-65a7-41f9-a157-e59603846420" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40439:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US)</a> - that would still leave a 5.4% spread to the offer price.</li>
</ul>


Late last evening, Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) and Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU) announced a definitive agreement where Rio will acquire Arcadium for US$5.85/share in cash.

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US) closed nearly 31% higher at US$5.55/share and Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU) should follow when the stock opens.

Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU) could move around 40% higher today to catch up with Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US) - that would still leave a 5.4% spread to the offer price.


Rio Tinto Goes All-In for Arcadium Lithium

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</strong></a> has <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20241007/pdf/068tbs6fnf3fnj.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">confirmed</a> it has approached <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)/</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc-2f9bfa3a-65a7-41f9-a157-e59603846420" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40439:1" rel="noopener">(ALTM US)</a></strong> regarding a potential acquisition. </li>
<li>No Offer Price has been announced; however a proposed bid with a 30%+ premium, on top of last week's 11% bounce, has been rumoured. That implies a price of ~$6/share.</li>
<li>Given shares were trading ~A$10/share in January this year, one Aussie-based fund reckons such an Offer would be highly opportunistic; and that a bid 2.5-3x higher is reasonable. </li>
</ul>



Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) has confirmed it has approached Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)/(ALTM US) regarding a potential acquisition. 
No Offer Price has been announced; however a proposed bid with a 30%+ premium, on top of last week's 11% bounce, has been rumoured. That implies a price of ~$6/share.
Given shares were trading ~A$10/share in January this year, one Aussie-based fund reckons such an Offer would be highly opportunistic; and that a bid 2.5-3x higher is reasonable. 


Rio Tinto Taps Arcadium As Lithium Prices Sag

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a> shareholders have overwhelmingly approved the dual-track bid from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sociedad-quimica-y-minera-de-chile-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27977:1" rel="noopener">Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US)</a> and Hancock. The scheme offer is A$3.70 per share.</li>
<li>The shares fell 7%, seemingly due to concerns about FIRB approval sparked by FIRB’s request for an extension on 3 April and today’s <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/chinese-miners-in-2-5b-payday-from-australian-lithium-holdings-20240404-p5fhix" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AFR article</a> on China’s Australian lithium holdings. </li>
<li>FIRB approval should be forthcoming due to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tianqi-lithium-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27789:1" rel="noopener">Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK)</a> small indirect interest in Andover, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lithium-power-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30603:1" rel="noopener">Lithium Power International (LPI AU)</a> precedent, and SQM and Tianqi’s strained relationship. </li>
</ul>



Azure Minerals (AZS AU) shareholders have overwhelmingly approved the dual-track bid from Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US) and Hancock. The scheme offer is A$3.70 per share.
The shares fell 7%, seemingly due to concerns about FIRB approval sparked by FIRB’s request for an extension on 3 April and today’s AFR article on China’s Australian lithium holdings. 
FIRB approval should be forthcoming due to Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) small indirect interest in Andover, Lithium Power International (LPI AU) precedent, and SQM and Tianqi’s strained relationship. 


Azure Minerals (AZS AU): FIRB Approval Concerns Are Overdone

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sociedad-quimica-y-minera-de-chile-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27977:1" rel="noopener">Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US)</a>/Hancock’s scheme and takeover offer fair and reasonable as it is above its A$2.03-2.93 valuation range. </li>
<li>The scheme is conditional on FIRB approval, which should be forthcoming as Azure’s key asset (Andover) will be majority-owned by Australian entities.</li>
<li>The scheme vote will get up due to irrevocables and retail support. At the last close and for the 18 April payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.1%/29.2%.</li>
</ul>


The Azure Minerals (AZS AU) IE considers Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US)/Hancock’s scheme and takeover offer fair and reasonable as it is above its A$2.03-2.93 valuation range. 
The scheme is conditional on FIRB approval, which should be forthcoming as Azure’s key asset (Andover) will be majority-owned by Australian entities.
The scheme vote will get up due to irrevocables and retail support. At the last close and for the 18 April payment, the gross/annualised spread was 3.1%/29.2%.


Azure Minerals (AZS AU): Scheme Vote on 8 April

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.afr.com/street-talk/minres-selling-14-5pc-of-azure-minerals-jpm-nabs-trade-20240221-p5f6ta" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AFR reports</a> that JPMorgan is selling 14.5% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a> shares at A$3.42. The primary seller is said to be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">Mineral Resources (MIN AU)</a>, seeking to exit.</li>
<li>MinRes' decision to sell out a discount rather than accept the scheme A$3.70 offer reflects the cost of securing a say on Andover and the opportunity cost of capital. </li>
<li>The transaction booklet will be despatched in early March. At the last close and for an early May scheme payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.5%/13.4%. </li>
</ul>


The AFR reports that JPMorgan is selling 14.5% of Azure Minerals (AZS AU) shares at A$3.42. The primary seller is said to be Mineral Resources (MIN AU), seeking to exit.
MinRes' decision to sell out a discount rather than accept the scheme A$3.70 offer reflects the cost of securing a say on Andover and the opportunity cost of capital. 
The transaction booklet will be despatched in early March. At the last close and for an early May scheme payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.5%/13.4%. 


Azure Minerals (AZS AU): MinRes Selling Out Paves the Way for the Scheme

United States

Livent Corporation produces and distributes lithium chemicals. The Company offers lithium chemicals for applications in batteries, agrochemicals, aerospace alloys, greases, pharmaceuticals, polymers, and various industrial applications.

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Livent (LTHM US)

Rio Tinto Goes All-In for Arcadium Lithium

Rio Tinto and Arcadium Lithium have announced a definitive agreement where Rio will acquire Arcadium for US$5.85/share in cash. There were a lot of...

Brian Freitas

Rio Tinto Taps Arcadium As Lithium Prices Sag

Arcadium IS in play. And the share price has recently rebounded from a multi-year low. I'd be getting involved around here, and on any weakness.

David Blennerhassett

Azure Minerals (AZS AU): FIRB Approval Concerns Are Overdone

FIRB approval should be forthcoming due to Tianqi's small indirect interest in Andover, Lithium Power precedent, and SQM and Tianqi’s strained...

Arun George

Azure Minerals (AZS AU): Scheme Vote on 8 April

The scheme vote will get up due to irrevocables and retail support. At the last close and for the 18 April payment, the gross/annualised spread was...

Arun George

Azure Minerals (AZS AU): MinRes Selling Out Paves the Way for the Scheme

MinRes' decision to sell out a discount reflects the cost of securing a say on Andover and the opportunity cost of capital. At the last close and...

Arun George

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