Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion; we only select and summarise the information. See direct links to the sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion; we only select and summarise the information. See direct links to the sources


REF China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | June 5-11, 2026

<ul>
<li>In this note, we share our forecast summary for China's new home sales and new starts for 2026. </li>
<li>The 2026 theme, "10 Distinctions", follows "Snake-Shaped Recovery" from 2025 and "Support Not Stimulus" from 2024.</li>
<li>Our main scenario for new home sales is a less negative decline at -2.5% vs -9.2% actual for 2025, taking into account likely data distortions.</li>
</ul>


In this note, we share our forecast summary for China's new home sales and new starts for 2026. 
The 2026 theme, "10 Distinctions", follows "Snake-Shaped Recovery" from 2025 and "Support Not Stimulus" from 2024.
Our main scenario for new home sales is a less negative decline at -2.5% vs -9.2% actual for 2025, taking into account likely data distortions.


14th Annual China Property Outlook - REF Forecast Summary For 2026 | "10 Distinctions"

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>We review the 2025 'draw the line' group forecasts for new home sales in China vs what happened, and put it in the context of the past forecasts.</li>
<li>The 'wisdom of crowds' worked well in the end, but the 'path' to year-end was off most of the year.</li>
<li>You can now join this year's <a href="https://ref.kubrosearch.com/drawkits/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">'Draw the Line 2026'</a> for new home sales, part of Real Estate Foresight's 14th Annual China Property Outlook.</li>
</ul>


We review the 2025 'draw the line' group forecasts for new home sales in China vs what happened, and put it in the context of the past forecasts.
The 'wisdom of crowds' worked well in the end, but the 'path' to year-end was off most of the year.
You can now join this year's 'Draw the Line 2026' for new home sales, part of Real Estate Foresight's 14th Annual China Property Outlook.


China Property Predictions: In Hindsight On 2025 And "Draw The Line" 2026

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to the sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to the sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 3-9, 2025

<ul>
<li>There are more 'less negative' signs in the latest data for October/November sales, especially in the weekly data</li>
<li>The policy measures for property, perceived broadly as rather underwhelming, suggest the goal of 'stabilizing it' remains clear, with caution about the excessive support for the sector </li>
<li>In this note, we summarize where things stand with China housing - looking at home sales, prices, inventory, land, major cities, and the policy over the past few months</li>
</ul>


There are more 'less negative' signs in the latest data for October/November sales, especially in the weekly data
The policy measures for property, perceived broadly as rather underwhelming, suggest the goal of 'stabilizing it' remains clear, with caution about the excessive support for the sector 
In this note, we summarize where things stand with China housing - looking at home sales, prices, inventory, land, major cities, and the policy over the past few months


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Logan Property Holdings (3380 HK)

REF China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | June 5-11, 2026

This note is a weekly (June 5-11, 2026; select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on...

Robert Ciemniak

14th Annual China Property Outlook - REF Forecast Summary For 2026 | "10 Distinctions"

We share our forecast summary for China's new home sales and new starts for 2026. The 2026 theme, "10 Distinctions", follows "Snake-Shaped...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Predictions: In Hindsight On 2025 And "Draw The Line" 2026

We review the 2025 'draw the line' group forecasts for new home sales in China vs what happened, and put it in the context of the past forecasts.

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 3-9, 2025

This note is a weekly (Jan 3-9, 2025; select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: "Stabilize It"

In this note, we summarize where things stand with China housing as of Nov 19, 20204 - looking at home sales, prices, inventory, land, major...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)