Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Last year seven banks in China saw deposits contract. The year previous the number was one. </li><li>Deposit flight is one of the first things to look for in a banking crisis.&nbsp;</li><li>Even where deposits are simply being moved out of traditional banks and placed with a government policy bank, it can be a concern.</li><li>As bad loans worsen, banks find it increasingly difficult to pay back depositors, which can mean calling in loans. This only exacerbates financial stress for debtors.</li></ul>Full report below the fold....&nbsp;

Last year seven banks in China saw deposits contract. The year previous the number was one. Deposit flight is one of the first things to look for in a banking crisis.&nbsp;Even where deposits are simply being moved out of traditional banks and placed with a government policy bank, it can be a concern.As bad loans worsen, banks find it increasingly difficult to pay back depositors, which can mean calling in loans. This only exacerbates financial stress for debtors.Full report below the fold....&nbsp;

<ul><li>It is rare for bad loans to rise gradually as they peak.</li><li>In most all cases the rise of NPLs and corresponding credit costs is radical.</li><li>It is not steady and calm, in the throes of an NPL cycle.</li><li>The peak of credit costs can be well over 5x lows, and unlike typical forecasts.</li><li>With the signals being sent from Beijing, it suggests we are on the precipice of a radical rise in banks&rsquo; bad loans and associated credit costs.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li></ul>

It is rare for bad loans to rise gradually as they peak.In most all cases the rise of NPLs and corresponding credit costs is radical.It is not steady and calm, in the throes of an NPL cycle.The peak of credit costs can be well over 5x lows, and unlike typical forecasts.With the signals being sent from Beijing, it suggests we are on the precipice of a radical rise in banks&rsquo; bad loans and associated credit costs.&nbsp;&nbsp;

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-energy-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35843:1" rel="noopener">Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR)</a> recently qualified for the selection list from the Energy sector and has experienced a price surge of over 200% in the last 12 months.</li>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-energy-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35843:1" rel="noopener">Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR)</a> remains ranked at or above 25 on 27 February, it achieves fast-entry into STOXXEurope50 at the March 2026 quarterly review.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/london-stock-exchange-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22034:1" rel="noopener">London Stock Exchange (LSEG LN)</a> is currently the lowest‑ranked constituent and therefore the most likely to be deleted from the index and replaced by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-energy-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35843:1" rel="noopener">Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR) recently qualified for the selection list from the Energy sector and has experienced a price surge of over 200% in the last 12 months.
If Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR) remains ranked at or above 25 on 27 February, it achieves fast-entry into STOXXEurope50 at the March 2026 quarterly review.

London Stock Exchange (LSEG LN) is currently the lowest‑ranked constituent and therefore the most likely to be deleted from the index and replaced by Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR).


Siemens Energy (ENR GR): Fast-Entry Potential into STOXXEurope50 in Mar26

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-energy-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35843:1" rel="noopener">Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR)</a> was omitted from STOXX Europe50 as it had been failing the coverage threshold in the Energy sector.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-energy-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35843:1" rel="noopener">Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR)</a> surged ~20% over the last month and is now passing the threshold, making it the top addition candidate replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/diageo-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:977:1" rel="noopener">Diageo Plc (DGE LN)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barclays-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1121:1" rel="noopener">Barclays PLC (BARC LN)</a> is the second addition candidate currently replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/london-stock-exchange-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22034:1" rel="noopener">London Stock Exchange (LSEG LN)</a> as they are near the entry and exit ranks, respectively.</li>
</ul>



Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR) was omitted from STOXX Europe50 as it had been failing the coverage threshold in the Energy sector.

Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR) surged ~20% over the last month and is now passing the threshold, making it the top addition candidate replacing Diageo Plc (DGE LN).

Barclays PLC (BARC LN) is the second addition candidate currently replacing London Stock Exchange (LSEG LN) as they are near the entry and exit ranks, respectively.


Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR): STOXX Europe50 Qualification from Energy Sector

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A stock that should benefit from the resumption of Japan's bull market</li>
<li>Utility type stock poised to rerate  as a growth narrative starts</li>
<li>The stock has recently broken out of its 18 month downtrend</li>
</ul>


A stock that should benefit from the resumption of Japan's bull market
Utility type stock poised to rerate  as a growth narrative starts
The stock has recently broken out of its 18 month downtrend


From Utility to Growth: Re‑rating Potential at Japan Exchange Group (8697.T)

United Kingdom

London Stock Exchange Group plc (LSEG) is a global financial markets infrastructure and data provider. The group offers services in data, analytics, capital formation, trade execution, clearing, and risk management. It is headquartered in London, England, and was created in October 2007 through the merger of London Stock Exchange and Borsa Italiana.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG LN)

Deposit Flight at China's Banks

Last year seven banks in China saw deposits contract. The year previous the number was one. Deposit flight is one of the first things to look...

Daniel Tabbush

China's NPL Growth will be Radical

It is rare for bad loans to rise gradually as they peak. In most all cases the rise of NPLs and corresponding credit costs is radical. It is not...

Daniel Tabbush

Siemens Energy (ENR GR): Fast-Entry Potential into STOXXEurope50 in Mar26

ENR GR is now projected to replace DGE LN rather than LSEG LN in STOXXEurope50 in March, following DGE’s 16% price drop over the past two days....

Dimitris Ioannidis

Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR): STOXX Europe50 Qualification from Energy Sector

Siemens Energy (ENR GR) is set to be added to STOXX Europe50 in September 2026 after passing the Energy sector coverage threshold, potentially...

Dimitris Ioannidis

From Utility to Growth: Re‑rating Potential at Japan Exchange Group (8697.T)

The operator of Japanese exchanges is poised to benefit from the country's bull market resurgence as it breaks out of a prolonged downtrend.

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Deposit Flight at China's Banks

Last year seven banks in China saw deposits contract. The year previous the number was one. Deposit flight is one of the first things to look...

Daniel Tabbush

China's NPL Growth will be Radical

It is rare for bad loans to rise gradually as they peak. In most all cases the rise of NPLs and corresponding credit costs is radical. It is not...

Daniel Tabbush

Siemens Energy (ENR GR): Fast-Entry Potential into STOXXEurope50 in Mar26

ENR GR is now projected to replace DGE LN rather than LSEG LN in STOXXEurope50 in March, following DGE’s 16% price drop over the past two days....

Dimitris Ioannidis

Siemens Energy AG (ENR GR): STOXX Europe50 Qualification from Energy Sector

​Siemens Energy (ENR GR) is set to be added to STOXX Europe50 in September 2026 after passing the Energy sector coverage threshold, potentially...

Dimitris Ioannidis

From Utility to Growth: Re‑rating Potential at Japan Exchange Group (8697.T)

The operator of Japanese exchanges is poised to benefit from the country's bull market resurgence as it breaks out of a prolonged downtrend.

Rikki Malik

Siemens Energy (ENR GR) is set to be added to STOXX Europe50 in September 2026 after passing the Energy sector coverage threshold, potentially...