Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Today's NBS data for September points to further weakening in the housing market year-to-date year-on-year while turning less negative on most indicators on a 12M rolling basis</li>
<li>It's in line with our forecast from Dec 2022 data, and also consistent with what the weekly data suggested earlier</li>
<li>But the main caveat persists - the 2022 data (May-Sep) continued to be revised down (officially) for some key metrics like new home sales</li>
</ul>


Today's NBS data for September points to further weakening in the housing market year-to-date year-on-year while turning less negative on most indicators on a 12M rolling basis
It's in line with our forecast from Dec 2022 data, and also consistent with what the weekly data suggested earlier
But the main caveat persists - the 2022 data (May-Sep) continued to be revised down (officially) for some key metrics like new home sales


China Property - Today's NBS Macro-Property Data for September 2023

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The sales of new homes over the 1999-2022 period appear to be not out of sync with the increase in the number of urban households </li>
<li>The fact that 'modern housing' in China only started at the end of 1990s, gives the sector unique long-term characteristics, harder to gauge using typical models</li>
<li>Hence the practical demand-supply balance may be better than typically thought, keeping in mind the affordability and wealth distribution issues, variation by region and city</li>
</ul>


The sales of new homes over the 1999-2022 period appear to be not out of sync with the increase in the number of urban households 
The fact that 'modern housing' in China only started at the end of 1990s, gives the sector unique long-term characteristics, harder to gauge using typical models
Hence the practical demand-supply balance may be better than typically thought, keeping in mind the affordability and wealth distribution issues, variation by region and city


China Housing - Demand-Supply Fundamentals Part #1: The "Modern Housing" Argument

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Binjiang Service Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A recent rally in property management companies due to measures taken by the government has set <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/binjiang-service-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28940:1" rel="noopener">Binjiang Service Group (3316 HK)</a> for a big move upwards.</li>
<li>The stock is cheap and trades at 10.5x/8.1x FY22/23e PE with 37% of the market cap in cash and a 5.8%/7.4% FY22e/23e dividend yield.</li>
<li>Catalysts for the company are further loosening on the property by the government and a profit alert of 38-40% earnings growth for FY22.</li>
</ul>


A recent rally in property management companies due to measures taken by the government has set Binjiang Service Group (3316 HK) for a big move upwards.
The stock is cheap and trades at 10.5x/8.1x FY22/23e PE with 37% of the market cap in cash and a 5.8%/7.4% FY22e/23e dividend yield.
Catalysts for the company are further loosening on the property by the government and a profit alert of 38-40% earnings growth for FY22.


Binjiang: Set up for a Good Move From Here

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Jinmao, Longfor Group, Genting Berhad</li>
<li>The UST curve bull steepened meaningfully yesterday, on haven flows and Fed-easing expectations after credit concerns hit two US regional banks. The yield on the 2Y UST fell 7 bps to 3.43%, while that on the 10Y UST declined 5 bps to 3.98%.</li>
<li>Equities and risk assets (e.g. bitcoin) slumped following credit fears in the economy, while gold soared above USD 4.3 k/oz. The S&amp;P 500 decreased 0.6% to 6,629, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.5% to 22,563.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Jinmao, Longfor Group, Genting Berhad
The UST curve bull steepened meaningfully yesterday, on haven flows and Fed-easing expectations after credit concerns hit two US regional banks. The yield on the 2Y UST fell 7 bps to 3.43%, while that on the 10Y UST declined 5 bps to 3.98%.
Equities and risk assets (e.g. bitcoin) slumped following credit fears in the economy, while gold soared above USD 4.3 k/oz. The S&amp;P 500 decreased 0.6% to 6,629, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.5% to 22,563.


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSI in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on BYD, BOC, ALIBABA, MEITUAN, China Life, LONGFOR, China Life, BOC, BYD, Baba, Meituan, Longfor.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of HSI in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on BYD, BOC, ALIBABA, MEITUAN, China Life, LONGFOR, China Life, BOC, BYD, Baba, Meituan, Longfor.


HSI Index Earning Revision (Sep): BYD, BOC, ALIBABA, MEITUAN, China Life, LONGFOR, China Life, BOC

China

Longfor Properties Co. Ltd. operates in the property development, property investment and property management businesses in China.

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Longfor Properties (960 HK)

China Property - Today's NBS Macro-Property Data for September 2023

We slice and dice various metrics for China 'macro-property' data with today's NBS release of the new data for September 2023.

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing - Demand-Supply Fundamentals Part #1: The "Modern Housing" Argument

How oversupplied is the China housing market? Thinking beyond the current downturn and crisis for many developers, the answer might not be so simple.

Robert Ciemniak

Binjiang: Set up for a Good Move From Here

Binjiang trades at 10.5x/8.1x FY22/23 PE with a dividend yield of 5.7/7.4% based on a 60% payout ratio. It is the best way to play the PMC bounce...

Sameer Taneja

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Jinmao, Longfor Group, Genting Berhad

Lucror Analytics

HSI Index Earning Revision (Sep): BYD, BOC, ALIBABA, MEITUAN, China Life, LONGFOR, China Life, BOC

We analyzed HSI's consensus for Sep 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in BYD, BOC, ALIBABA, MEITUAN, China Life, LONGFOR, China Life, BOC, BYD,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

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