Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

Lotte Tour Development Co, Ltd. / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Lotte Tour Development announced that it will conduct a major asset revaluation which could positively impact its share price. </li>
<li>The company's assets will increase to 2.39 trillion won and equity will increase to 569.3 billion won (up more than 8x) at end of 1Q 2024 due to asset revaluation.</li>
<li>As a result of the asset revaluation, the company's balance sheet will improve significantly and this likely result in many investors taking another look at the company for potential investments. </li>
</ul>


Lotte Tour Development announced that it will conduct a major asset revaluation which could positively impact its share price. 
The company's assets will increase to 2.39 trillion won and equity will increase to 569.3 billion won (up more than 8x) at end of 1Q 2024 due to asset revaluation.
As a result of the asset revaluation, the company's balance sheet will improve significantly and this likely result in many investors taking another look at the company for potential investments. 


Lotte Tour Development: A Major Asset Revaluation Resulting in More Than 8X Increase in Equity

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX Stocks as of Apr 19th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD6.6bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We estimate the short interests to be USD 6.6bn and highlight short interest changes in Samsung Electronics.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX Stocks as of Apr 19th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD6.6bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We estimate the short interests to be USD 6.6bn and highlight short interest changes in Samsung Electronics.


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 19th): Samsung Electronics

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>Lotte Tour has emerged as a prominent short-selling target in the Korean market, and there are efforts to use an ₩80B convertible bond (CB) to exploit its dilution/overhang risk.</li>
<li>Linden Capital and LMR, upon obtaining the CB, promptly borrowed 4.6M shares from Donghwa for short selling. Thus, the CB conversion incentive remains largely unaffected by stock price changes.</li>
<li>We should avoid synchronizing our entry point with CB conversion. Instead, we should target the likely rights issuance in the latter half of the year, anticipated in the market.</li>
</ul>


Lotte Tour has emerged as a prominent short-selling target in the Korean market, and there are efforts to use an ₩80B convertible bond (CB) to exploit its dilution/overhang risk.
Linden Capital and LMR, upon obtaining the CB, promptly borrowed 4.6M shares from Donghwa for short selling. Thus, the CB conversion incentive remains largely unaffected by stock price changes.
We should avoid synchronizing our entry point with CB conversion. Instead, we should target the likely rights issuance in the latter half of the year, anticipated in the market.


Addressing Misconceptions: Lotte Tour's Short-Selling Entry Point

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> index constituents in May 2021.</li>
<li>News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.</li>
<li>There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.</li>
</ul>


Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 index constituents in May 2021.
News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.
There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.


Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In the past several days, there have been numerous new flow that the Chinese government is likely to allow group tours to South Korea and Japan in the coming days. </li>
<li>The group tours from China to South Korea which has been banned since March 2017, are expected to resume after six years, according to the Korean Embassy in China.</li>
<li>Nikkei Asia also reported on 9 August that the Chinese government is ready to allow group tours to Japan as early as this week.</li>
</ul>


In the past several days, there have been numerous new flow that the Chinese government is likely to allow group tours to South Korea and Japan in the coming days. 
The group tours from China to South Korea which has been banned since March 2017, are expected to resume after six years, according to the Korean Embassy in China.
Nikkei Asia also reported on 9 August that the Chinese government is ready to allow group tours to Japan as early as this week.


China to Finally Allow Group Tours to Korea and Japan?

South Korea

Lotte Tour Development Co., Ltd. provides various tour package service. The Company franchises travel agencies, offers home-based travel businesses, and provides leisure-travel information.  The Company also engages in property development and building management and operates duty-free shop business.

Lotte Tour Development Co, Ltd. (032350 KS)

Lotte Tour Development Co, Ltd. (032350 KS)

Lotte Tour Development: A Major Asset Revaluation Resulting in More Than 8X Increase in Equity

Lotte Tour Development announced it will conduct an asset revaluation which could positively impact its share price. Its equity will increase by...

Douglas Kim

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 19th): Samsung Electronics

We analyzed KRX short interest report for the past week. We estimate the short interests to be USD 6.6bn and highlighted short interest changes in...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Addressing Misconceptions: Lotte Tour's Short-Selling Entry Point

This post provides clarification regarding market misconceptions about the short-selling entry point for Lotte Tour Development.

Sanghyun Park

Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

Media reports indicate that there could be a temporary short sell ban in Korea. This could lead to futures backwardation, market manipulation and a...

Brian Freitas

China to Finally Allow Group Tours to Korea and Japan?

The group tours from China to South Korea which has been banned since March 2017, are expected to resume after six years, according to the Korean...

Douglas Kim