European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Lottomatica is down 9.2% following the CIRSA merger announcement, erasing ~€575m of equity value; we believe the sell-off overstates the transaction cost.</li>
<li>CIRSA is acquired at ~6x 2026E EBITDA before synergies, versus Lottomatica’s 8.0x unaffected NTM multiple, with €115m of annual pre-tax cash synergies.</li>
<li>At €22.49, Lottomatica trades at ~7.45x NTM EBITDA. We would buy the sell-off: the current de-rating gives too little credit to the acquired earnings and synergies.</li>
</ul>


Lottomatica is down 9.2% following the CIRSA merger announcement, erasing ~€575m of equity value; we believe the sell-off overstates the transaction cost.
CIRSA is acquired at ~6x 2026E EBITDA before synergies, versus Lottomatica’s 8.0x unaffected NTM multiple, with €115m of annual pre-tax cash synergies.
At €22.49, Lottomatica trades at ~7.45x NTM EBITDA. We would buy the sell-off: the current de-rating gives too little credit to the acquired earnings and synergies.


Lottomatica/CIRSA: An Excessive Acquirer Sell-Off

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Gamma Intermediate sold its entire 21% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lottomatica-group-s-p-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45693:1" rel="noopener">Lottomatica Group (LTMC IM)</a> on 17 June in a private placement of €1.2bn.</li>
<li>Free float of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lottomatica-group-s-p-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45693:1" rel="noopener">Lottomatica Group (LTMC IM)</a> increased from 79% to 100% following Gamma's sale.</li>
<li>The free float increase is expected to cause an upweight at the September 2025 review in Europe Top 600 and Eurozone indices.</li>
</ul>


Gamma Intermediate sold its entire 21% stake in Lottomatica Group (LTMC IM) on 17 June in a private placement of €1.2bn.
Free float of Lottomatica Group (LTMC IM) increased from 79% to 100% following Gamma's sale.
The free float increase is expected to cause an upweight at the September 2025 review in Europe Top 600 and Eurozone indices.


Lottomatica (LTMC IM): Upweight in EU Indices Following €1.2B Placement

Italy

Lottomatica Group S.p.A. is a leading Italian gaming services provider, operating in online gaming (including online casino, poker, bingo, and sports betting), sports franchises (retail sports, virtual, and horse racing betting), and gaming franchises (management of gaming halls and amusement machines). The company was founded in 2019 and is headquartered in Rome, Italy.

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Lottomatica (LTMC IM)

Lottomatica/CIRSA: An Excessive Acquirer Sell-Off

Lottomatica’s sell-off looks excessive following the CIRSA combination. The deal adds a lower-valued earnings base and material synergies, while...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Lottomatica (LTMC IM): Upweight in EU Indices Following €1.2B Placement

Strategic shareholder sells entire stake in Lottomatica via €1.2bn placement, raising free float to 100% and triggering an anticipated upweight in...

Dimitris Ioannidis

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