Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings (9987 HK)</a> reported a marginal 1% year-on-year increase in 2Q2024 revenue, driven by new store additions despite a decline in same-store sales.</li>
<li>Despite a challenging business environment, it achieved 8% year-on-year profit growth in Q2 and stabilised margins through sharp cost management and operational efficiency initiatives.</li>
<li>Without a clear visibility in improvement in consumer sentiment and spending, expect the tough operating environment to limit Yum China's revenue and profit growth potential.</li>
</ul>



Yum China Holdings (9987 HK) reported a marginal 1% year-on-year increase in 2Q2024 revenue, driven by new store additions despite a decline in same-store sales.
Despite a challenging business environment, it achieved 8% year-on-year profit growth in Q2 and stabilised margins through sharp cost management and operational efficiency initiatives.
Without a clear visibility in improvement in consumer sentiment and spending, expect the tough operating environment to limit Yum China's revenue and profit growth potential.


Yum China (9987 HK): 2Q 2024 - Market Expansion Can't Mask Macro Woes

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>Luckin’s SSSG declined 20.9%YoY in the peak season, indicating diseconomies of scale for Luckin and a deteriorated competitive environment. We do not expect a quick turnaround in the near term.</li>
<li>We think Luckin has limited capability to further raise its prices in 3Q24, and expect its NPM to be 11.9%/7.1% in 3Q24/4Q24 as the new norm.</li>
<li>We keep SELL rating and lower TP to US$16.5/ADS. The stock trading at 20x/16x PE in 2024/2025, and we expect the NI to increase 15%CAGR in the next 2 years.</li>
</ul>


Luckin’s SSSG declined 20.9%YoY in the peak season, indicating diseconomies of scale for Luckin and a deteriorated competitive environment. We do not expect a quick turnaround in the near term.
We think Luckin has limited capability to further raise its prices in 3Q24, and expect its NPM to be 11.9%/7.1% in 3Q24/4Q24 as the new norm.
We keep SELL rating and lower TP to US$16.5/ADS. The stock trading at 20x/16x PE in 2024/2025, and we expect the NI to increase 15%CAGR in the next 2 years.


[Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, SELL, TP US$16.5) TP Change]: Milkteaization Diminishes Differentiation

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BZ US: Enterprises’ Recruitment Confidence Shows Slight Recovery in July(+)</li>
<li>3690HK: Meituan and Restaurant Brands Collaborate to Establish Take-out Satellite Stores, Further Penetrating Offline Catering in China.(+)</li>
<li>PDD US/BABA US /SHEIN/SE US: Hundreds of Temu merchants protest at Guangzhou headquarters (-/+/+)</li>
</ul>


BZ US: Enterprises’ Recruitment Confidence Shows Slight Recovery in July(+)
3690HK: Meituan and Restaurant Brands Collaborate to Establish Take-out Satellite Stores, Further Penetrating Offline Catering in China.(+)
PDD US/BABA US /SHEIN/SE US: Hundreds of Temu merchants protest at Guangzhou headquarters (-/+/+)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BZ US/3690HK/PDD US/BABA US/SE US/JD US/700HK/NTES US/BIDU/MSFT/TCOM

<ul>
<li>LKNCY US:Luckin Coffee's Moutai Flavored Latte is Gradually Being Phased Out (-)</li>
<li>1519 HK/ZTO US: Weekly parcel volume grew ~33% y-o-y (+)</li>
<li>981 HK/1810 HK/AAPL US/NVDA US: SMIC’s upcoming N+3 process to narrow performance with TSMC’s 5nm (+/-/-/-)</li>
</ul>


LKNCY US:Luckin Coffee's Moutai Flavored Latte is Gradually Being Phased Out (-)
1519 HK/ZTO US: Weekly parcel volume grew ~33% y-o-y (+)
981 HK/1810 HK/AAPL US/NVDA US: SMIC’s upcoming N+3 process to narrow performance with TSMC’s 5nm (+/-/-/-)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:LKNCY US/1519 HK/ZTO US/981 HK/1810 HK/AAPL US/NVDA US/BEKE US

<ul>
<li>1810 HK/AAPL: Xiaomi’s China unit volume grew 17% yoy in 2Q (+/-)</li>
<li>1810 HK: Xiaomi acquires more land to build another EV factory (+)</li>
<li>981 HK/1810 HK: SMIC’s upcoming “5nm” process to feature significant efficiency improvement (+/-)</li>
</ul>


1810 HK/AAPL: Xiaomi’s China unit volume grew 17% yoy in 2Q (+/-)
1810 HK: Xiaomi acquires more land to build another EV factory (+)
981 HK/1810 HK: SMIC’s upcoming “5nm” process to feature significant efficiency improvement (+/-)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/AAPL/981 HK/LKNCY US/BZ US/LI US/1211 HK

China

Luckin Coffee Inc. provides non-alcoholic beverages. The Company offers various types of coffee. Luckin Coffee serves customers in China.

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Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US)

Yum China (9987 HK): 2Q 2024 - Market Expansion Can't Mask Macro Woes

Unless macro economic headwinds ease, the stock - currently trading at the low end of its historical valuation range (14X P/E and 2% dividend...

Devi Subhakesan