Emerging Market Economist, Emerginomics

Tatiana Orlova

Emerging Market Economist

Emerginomics

Macroeconomics

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Last week, Uzbekistan placed a debut Eurobond, which attracted high interest from investors. Following a change of leadership in 2016, the country embarked on a path or rapid development. So far, its reform record has been quite impressive. However, new challenges often arise during periods of rapid transition. We expect both demand and supply-related pressures to lead to a rise in headline inflation towards the 20% mark in the next 12 months. We think that given the evidence of a rapid deterioration in the trade and current accounts in 2018, further depreciation of the local currency should be expected in the short term. Investors who have bought the Eurobond, or consider participation in further placements by Uzbek corporate issuers in the coming months, should watch out for signs of the build-up of persistent imbalances in Uzbekistan's economy.
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Last week, Uzbekistan placed a debut Eurobond, which attracted high interest from investors. Following a change of leadership in 2016, the country embarked on a path or rapid development. So far, its reform record has been quite impressive. However, new challenges often arise during periods of rapid transition. We expect both demand and supply-related pressures to lead to a rise in headline inflation towards the 20% mark in the next 12 months. We think that given the evidence of a rapid deterioration in the trade and current accounts in 2018, further depreciation of the local currency should be expected in the short term. Investors who have bought the Eurobond, or consider participation in further placements by Uzbek corporate issuers in the coming months, should watch out for signs of the build-up of persistent imbalances in Uzbekistan's economy.


Uzbekistan Is a Promising Latecomer, but Investors Need to Watch Out and Stay on Top of Data

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

While the MSCI EM index remains in a well-defined downtrend, and we continue to recommend selectivity, we highlight several investable themes and actionable individual stock recommendations, including opportunities in Brazil, Russia, Norway, Thailand and India.

While the MSCI EM index remains in a well-defined downtrend, and we continue to recommend selectivity, we highlight several investable themes and actionable individual stock recommendations, including opportunities in Brazil, Russia, Norway, Thailand and India.

EM Strategy: Brazil Breaking Out, EM Energy Remains Attractive

Global markets are overdue for a bounce, But a host of uncertainties including are providing a significant headwind for broad developed and emerging market indexes. Our outlook remains cautious and we expect additional weakness and consolidation across global equity markets.  We offer technical insights on major markets, and highlight a number of actionable bottoms up ideas.

Global markets are overdue for a bounce, But a host of uncertainties including are providing a significant headwind for broad developed and emerging market indexes. Our outlook remains cautious and we expect additional weakness and consolidation across global equity markets.  We offer technical insights on major markets, and highlight a number of actionable bottoms up ideas.

Global Equity Strategy: Still Cautious Despite Oversold Conditions

In this report we provide a synopsis of EM markets. We also scour the EM universe for attractive and actionable opportunities, highlighting opportunities within India's SENSEX, global energy and materials sectors, and Asian banks.

In this report we provide a synopsis of EM markets. We also scour the EM universe for attractive and actionable opportunities, highlighting opportunities within India's SENSEX, global energy and materials sectors, and Asian banks.

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

Energy allocations among GEM funds are close to a 4-year high.  Though <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24141" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24141:1">Lukoil PJSC (LKOD LI)</a> is comfortably the most widely held energy company, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/175" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a> has seen the most buying over the course of the year.

Energy allocations among GEM funds are close to a 4-year high.  Though Lukoil PJSC (LKOD LI) is comfortably the most widely held energy company, CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) has seen the most buying over the course of the year.

CNOOC - The Darling of the Energy Resurgence

Russia

LUKOIL PJSC explores for, produces, refines, transports, and markets oil and gas mainly from Western Siberia. The Company also manufactures petrochemicals, fuels, and other petroleum products. LUKOIL operates refineries, and gasoline filling stations in Russia and the United States. The Company transports oil through pipelines, and petroleum products with its fleet of ships.

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LUKOIL PJSC (LKOD LI)

Uzbekistan Is a Promising Latecomer, but Investors Need to Watch Out and Stay on Top of Data

Last week, Uzbekistan placed a debut Eurobond, which attracted high interest from investors. Following a change of leadership in 2016, the country...

Tatiana Orlova

EM Strategy: Brazil Breaking Out, EM Energy Remains Attractive

While the MSCI EM index remains in a well-defined downtrend, and we continue to recommend selectivity, we highlight several investable themes and...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Still Cautious Despite Oversold Conditions

Global markets are overdue for a bounce, But a host of uncertainties including are providing a significant headwind for broad developed and...

Vermilion Research

EM Strategy: Remain Overweight India

In this report we provide a synopsis of EM markets. We also scour the EM universe for attractive and actionable opportunities, highlighting...

Vermilion Research

CNOOC - The Darling of the Energy Resurgence

Energy allocations among GEM funds are close to a 4-year high. Though Lukoil PJSC (LKOD LI) is comfortably the most widely held energy company,...

Steven Holden

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)