Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector, Small Cap Consumer Research

Small Cap Consumer Research

Equity Research Focusing on the Consumer Sector

Small Cap Consumer Research, LLC is a leading company-sponsored equity research provider focusing on the consumer sector (apparel, brand licensing and specialty retailing segments).

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating, $37 price target and projections for Guess?</li><li>with the company announcing 1QFY25 (April) results after the close on Thursday.</li><li>We believe 1Q, which included material upgrades in the domestic retail store base, the acquisition of contemporary leader rag & bone, continued European expansion and what we believe were cautious buys from the domestic wholesale segment, will set the stage for a strong back-half and FY26, but will result, beyond further share repurchases, in limited top and bottom line upside for 1Q.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $37 price target and projections for Guess?with the company announcing 1QFY25 (April) results after the close on Thursday.We believe 1Q, which included material upgrades in the domestic retail store base, the acquisition of contemporary leader rag & bone, continued European expansion and what we believe were cautious buys from the domestic wholesale segment, will set the stage for a strong back-half and FY26, but will result, beyond further share repurchases, in limited top and bottom line upside for 1Q.

GES: 1Q Preview: Building for the Future: Reiterate Buy, $37 PT

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating, $37 price target and projections after visiting Guess?</li><li>stores in the New York City Metro area and Long Island.</li><li>We believe the company continued to drive strong momentum in May, with Mother's Day solid and the company's focus on key fashion items, such as cargo pants, shorts, handbags, watches and active wear a plus.</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $37 price target and projections after visiting Guess?stores in the New York City Metro area and Long Island.We believe the company continued to drive strong momentum in May, with Mother's Day solid and the company's focus on key fashion items, such as cargo pants, shorts, handbags, watches and active wear a plus.

GES: Snapping the Store: Accessories, Shorts Strong; Reiterate Buy, $37 PT

<ul><li>We are reiterating our Buy rating, $37 price target and projections for Guess?</li><li>after visiting stores in the Metro New Your City area and Long Island.</li><li>Management continues to materially upgrade the Guess?</li></ul>

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $37 price target and projections for Guess?after visiting stores in the Metro New Your City area and Long Island.Management continues to materially upgrade the Guess?

GES: Snapping the Store: Moving to a Boutique Model; Reiterate Buy, $37 PT

Independent Research, US Dominant Players, Investment Talk

Investment Talk

Independent Research, US Dominant Players

Investment Talk is for readers who wish to learn about companies that are potentially outside of their own circle of research, as well as those who are longing to become part of a community of like-minded investors and learn more about investment research. I would describe myself as a long-term investor who typically takes a 3Y to 5Y outlook, before reassessing once that period matures. I follow the adage that one should research, reach a conclusion, and then verify and continue to hold so long as the thesis remains intact. My own investing style is one that seeks to find dominant players within their respective market who have shown signs of monopoly or oligopolistic behaviour, unlikely to be disrupted, in tandem with discovering market disruptors who have a high likelihood of disrupting their respective market. Equally (and weighted accordingly) I seek to discover more nuanced, misunderstood, situations with a shorter time frame.

<ul><li>On March 21st, Lululemon reported FY23 results. All things considered, the results were good. Guidance, however, caused some upset. Lululemon shares are down ~29% this year; after being down just 6% before the report, and is currently the 8th worst-performing stock in the S&amp;P 500.</li><li>Lululemon’s implied 11.5% revenue growth for 2024 is a notable deceleration from years prior; having averaged an annual revenue growth rate of 24.4% over the last 5 years.</li><li>This year’s revenue guidance is closer to, but still behind, the 5 years before that; where Lululemon averaged 15.7% annual revenue growth.</li></ul>

On March 21st, Lululemon reported FY23 results. All things considered, the results were good. Guidance, however, caused some upset. Lululemon shares are down ~29% this year; after being down just 6% before the report, and is currently the 8th worst-performing stock in the S&amp;P 500.Lululemon’s implied 11.5% revenue growth for 2024 is a notable deceleration from years prior; having averaged an annual revenue growth rate of 24.4% over the last 5 years.This year’s revenue guidance is closer to, but still behind, the 5 years before that; where Lululemon averaged 15.7% annual revenue growth.

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>After a solid FY23, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a>'s outlook for FY24 looks equally encouraging. Its various brands are expected to grow by 10-30% YoY still.  </li>
<li>Listing of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amer-sports-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21751:1" rel="noopener">Amer Sports (AS US)</a> will provide Rmb1.6bn non-recurring gain in 1H24. For the full year, there will be a positive swing in its profit contribution. </li>
<li>Anta Sports can be considered as a sportswear brand incubator, and its premium PERs of 18.3x and 15.9x for FY24 and FY25 reflect the ability to brew new brands. </li>
</ul>


After a solid FY23, Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)'s outlook for FY24 looks equally encouraging. Its various brands are expected to grow by 10-30% YoY still.  
Listing of Amer Sports (AS US) will provide Rmb1.6bn non-recurring gain in 1H24. For the full year, there will be a positive swing in its profit contribution. 
Anta Sports can be considered as a sportswear brand incubator, and its premium PERs of 18.3x and 15.9x for FY24 and FY25 reflect the ability to brew new brands. 


Anta Sports (2020 HK): Sustains Strengths into FY24

United States

lululemon athletica Inc. designs and retails athletic clothing.  The Company produces fitness pants, shorts, tops and jackets for yoga, dance, running, and general fitness. lululemon serves customers throughout the world.

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Lululemon Athletica (LULU US)

GES: 1Q Preview: Building for the Future: Reiterate Buy, $37 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $37 price target and projections for Guess? with the company announcing 1QFY25 (April) results after the close...

Small Cap Consumer Research

GES: Snapping the Store: Accessories, Shorts Strong; Reiterate Buy, $37 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $37 price target and projections after visiting Guess? stores in the New York City Metro area and Long...

Small Cap Consumer Research

GES: Snapping the Store: Moving to a Boutique Model; Reiterate Buy, $37 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $37 price target and projections for Guess? after visiting stores in the Metro New Your City area and Long...

Small Cap Consumer Research

Why Lululemon Isn’t Under Armour

Lululemon’s implied 11.5% revenue growth for 2024 is a notable deceleration from years prior; having averaged an annual revenue growth rate of...

Investment Talk

Anta Sports (2020 HK): Sustains Strengths into FY24

Anta's 1Q24 sales were lower than the full-year target, with ANTA brand up mid-single digit, FILA brand up high-single digit, and other brands up...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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