Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&amp;P 500 Potential Support Levels. Current logical support levels we are monitoring include the December 2018 low of 2,346 and prior resistance in 2015-2016 at 2,130-2,200. The 2,346 level would make a lot of sense, however there is nothing that says we can’t be down 35% (coinciding with the 2,130-2,200 level) or more from the highs. Ultimately, COVID-19 is holding the market hostage and it likely will stay that way until the virus spread diminishes.

S&amp;P 500 Potential Support Levels. Current logical support levels we are monitoring include the December 2018 low of 2,346 and prior resistance in 2015-2016 at 2,130-2,200. The 2,346 level would make a lot of sense, however there is nothing that says we can’t be down 35% (coinciding with the 2,130-2,200 level) or more from the highs. Ultimately, COVID-19 is holding the market hostage and it likely will stay that way until the virus spread diminishes.

S&P 500 Technical Appraisal and Support Levels

Amid rising Middle East tensions, investors have moved to safe-havens including Treasuries and gold, all while having a muted effect on the US equity market. At this point in time, the rising tensions have done virtually no damage to the bullish trends and indicators that continue to dominate the market. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Manufacturing, Services, Technology, and Transportation: Aero Defense, Large-Cap, HR &amp; Employment Svcs, Large-Cap, Optical Equipment, and Shipping, Energy

Amid rising Middle East tensions, investors have moved to safe-havens including Treasuries and gold, all while having a muted effect on the US equity market. At this point in time, the rising tensions have done virtually no damage to the bullish trends and indicators that continue to dominate the market. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Manufacturing, Services, Technology, and Transportation: Aero Defense, Large-Cap, HR &amp; Employment Svcs, Large-Cap, Optical Equipment, and Shipping, Energy

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

Hamamatsu Photonics Kk / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We look at another Japanese company in the AI capex supply chain</li>
<li>A company misclassified into TOPIX Precision Instruments, not Semiconductor Equipment</li>
<li>Sits at the intersection of 3 megatrends, where revenue is yet to contribute meaningfully</li>
</ul>


We look at another Japanese company in the AI capex supply chain
A company misclassified into TOPIX Precision Instruments, not Semiconductor Equipment
Sits at the intersection of 3 megatrends, where revenue is yet to contribute meaningfully


Tactical Trading – Hidden, Japanese AI Capex Beneficiary #2

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<blockquote> ‘The ‘Peak Smartphone’ theme justified an underweight stance back in Q4 across the most heavily exposed Asian supply chain stocks, with DDR4 DRAM prices down about 20% from its January peak and NAND flash down a third. Many bulls put premature faith in AI and AVs as incremental demand drivers, certainly valid medium term, but not on a scale to offset smartphone weakness this year while for high-end chip makers the end of the crypto mining frenzy is starting to impact. TSMC said this week that sales will rise by only a ‘high single-digit’ percentage in USD terms, down from a previous (reduced) projection of 10%.’</blockquote><div class="content-remarks">Weekly Insight, July 20th 2018</div>

 ‘The ‘Peak Smartphone’ theme justified an underweight stance back in Q4 across the most heavily exposed Asian supply chain stocks, with DDR4 DRAM prices down about 20% from its January peak and NAND flash down a third. Many bulls put premature faith in AI and AVs as incremental demand drivers, certainly valid medium term, but not on a scale to offset smartphone weakness this year while for high-end chip makers the end of the crypto mining frenzy is starting to impact. TSMC said this week that sales will rise by only a ‘high single-digit’ percentage in USD terms, down from a previous (reduced) projection of 10%.’Weekly Insight, July 20th 2018

Bearish Tech Stance Still Performing, as 5G Rollout Looms

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Equity Capital Markets

Huagong Tech Co Ltd A / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>HGTECH is seeking to raise at least USD100m through an A+H listing. CITIC is the sole sponsor.</li>
<li>We look at the company's three segments: optical interconnect, intelligent sensing, and intelligent manufacturing.</li>
<li>We discussed our preliminary thoughts on the company's fair value anchored by A-H premium.</li>
</ul>


HGTECH is seeking to raise at least USD100m through an A+H listing. CITIC is the sole sponsor.
We look at the company's three segments: optical interconnect, intelligent sensing, and intelligent manufacturing.
We discussed our preliminary thoughts on the company's fair value anchored by A-H premium.


United States

Lumentum Holdings Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, supplies optical and photonic products. Lumentum Holdings serves data communications and telecommunications, networking, and life-sciences markets worldwide.

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Lumentum Holdings (LITE US)

S&P 500 Technical Appraisal and Support Levels

S&P 500 Potential Support Levels. Current logical support levels we are monitoring include the December 2018 low of 2,346 and prior resistance...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Amid rising Middle East tensions, investors have moved to safe-havens including Treasuries and gold, all while having a muted effect on the US...

Vermilion Research

Tactical Trading – Hidden, Japanese AI Capex Beneficiary #2

Another Japanese beneficiary in the AI capex supply chain, positioned at the intersection of 3 megatrends driving growth

Rikki Malik

Bearish Tech Stance Still Performing, as 5G Rollout Looms

‘The ‘Peak Smartphone’ theme justified an underweight stance back in Q4 across the most heavily exposed Asian supply chain stocks, with DDR4 DRAM...

Sean Maher

HGTECH A+H Pre-IPO: Early Thoughts

HGTECH is seeking to raise at least USD100m through a Hong Kong A+H. This note reviews the company's business mix, industry position, financial...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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