AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Three distinct ways to play AI bandwidth. LAZR buys upstream components, LYTE buys transceiver assembly, and EUV buys the semiconductor capital stack.</li>
<li>Our holdings analysis shows LAZR’s equal-weighted and current-weighted returns aligned efficiently, while LYTE’s complex leverage and cash positioning blunted its upside.</li>
<li>EUV provides diversified capex exposure, sacrificing pure-play optics for a highly balanced bet on the broader semiconductor manufacturing system required for AI scale-out.</li>
</ul>


Three distinct ways to play AI bandwidth. LAZR buys upstream components, LYTE buys transceiver assembly, and EUV buys the semiconductor capital stack.
Our holdings analysis shows LAZR’s equal-weighted and current-weighted returns aligned efficiently, while LYTE’s complex leverage and cash positioning blunted its upside.
EUV provides diversified capex exposure, sacrificing pure-play optics for a highly balanced bet on the broader semiconductor manufacturing system required for AI scale-out.


Where Is the True Value in the Optics Trade? A Comparison of 3 ETFs

<ul>
<li>Tema’s LAZR launched as a photonics basket but quickly added Anthropic SPV exposure. This position plunged from 12.06% to under 5.0% in three weeks, highlighting private-asset ETF volatility.</li>
<li>Daily ETF liquidity does not make the underlying SPV liquid. Moreover, Anthropic publicly prohibits SPVs from acquiring its stock, raising questions about the exact legal claim LAZR holds.</li>
<li>Research partner SemiAnalysis now spans market-moving CPO research, ETF product design, along with a newly filed venture fund. This expanding footprint creates a high bar for disclosure and governance.</li>
</ul>


Tema’s LAZR launched as a photonics basket but quickly added Anthropic SPV exposure. This position plunged from 12.06% to under 5.0% in three weeks, highlighting private-asset ETF volatility.
Daily ETF liquidity does not make the underlying SPV liquid. Moreover, Anthropic publicly prohibits SPVs from acquiring its stock, raising questions about the exact legal claim LAZR holds.
Research partner SemiAnalysis now spans market-moving CPO research, ETF product design, along with a newly filed venture fund. This expanding footprint creates a high bar for disclosure and governance.


LAZR: When a Photonics ETF Becomes a Private AI Wrapper

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Lumentum Holdings recently reported a noteworthy increase in revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, reaching $533.8 million, a 58% year-over-year rise.</li><li>This marks the highest quarterly revenue in the company's history.</li><li>The growth was propelled by strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, specifically from laser chips and optical transceivers used in data centers and network interconnects.</li></ul>

Lumentum Holdings recently reported a noteworthy increase in revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, reaching $533.8 million, a 58% year-over-year rise.This marks the highest quarterly revenue in the company's history.The growth was propelled by strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, specifically from laser chips and optical transceivers used in data centers and network interconnects.

Lumentum Is Building A 2026 Technology Supercycle — Could CW

<ul>
<li>CPO architectures do not eliminate InP demand; escalating power requirements for Continuous Wave lasers expand die size and crush wafer yield, potentially increasing substrate intensity per module.</li>
<li>Merchant InP supply is tighter than headline capacity implies. While all are increasing capacity, Sumitomo is increasingly captive, AXT’s export cadence dictates revenue, and JX remains a minor player.</li>
<li>While the market tracks indium prices, a major supply chain anchor is 7N red phosphorus, where a near-monopoly is held by two Japanese companies dictating substrate production limits.</li>
</ul>


CPO architectures do not eliminate InP demand; escalating power requirements for Continuous Wave lasers expand die size and crush wafer yield, potentially increasing substrate intensity per module.
Merchant InP supply is tighter than headline capacity implies. While all are increasing capacity, Sumitomo is increasingly captive, AXT’s export cadence dictates revenue, and JX remains a minor player.
While the market tracks indium prices, a major supply chain anchor is 7N red phosphorus, where a near-monopoly is held by two Japanese companies dictating substrate production limits.


[Part 1: The Materials Chokepoint] Looking Into (And Past) The Indium Price Story

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

<ul>
<li>AI-Driven data centres are breaking a decade of flat U.S. electricity demand, pushing annual growth above historical norms, forcing utilities to expand their capacities.</li>
<li>Meeting this surge requires an all-of-the-above energy mix, where renewables lead new capacity additions, but natural gas remains the critical balancing fuel amid constraints and grid expansion.</li>
<li>The most durable beneficiaries are not power generators but midstream and infrastructure players, including grid builders, equipment manufacturers, and materials suppliers, whose revenues are driven by spending and reliability.</li>
</ul>


AI-Driven data centres are breaking a decade of flat U.S. electricity demand, pushing annual growth above historical norms, forcing utilities to expand their capacities.
Meeting this surge requires an all-of-the-above energy mix, where renewables lead new capacity additions, but natural gas remains the critical balancing fuel amid constraints and grid expansion.
The most durable beneficiaries are not power generators but midstream and infrastructure players, including grid builders, equipment manufacturers, and materials suppliers, whose revenues are driven by spending and reliability.


The AI Boom Is Becoming an Energy Infrastructure Story

United States

Lumentum Holdings Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, supplies optical and photonic products. Lumentum Holdings serves data communications and telecommunications, networking, and life-sciences markets worldwide.

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Lumentum Holdings (LITE US)

Where Is the True Value in the Optics Trade? A Comparison of 3 ETFs

Three new ETFs target the AI bandwidth bottleneck, but perform very differently. We analyse LAZR, LYTE & EUV to show why upstream components easily...

Mint Finance

LAZR: When a Photonics ETF Becomes a Private AI Wrapper

Tema's LAZR ETF sees rapid drop in Anthropic SPV exposure, highlighting private-asset ETF volatility and questions about legal claims;...

Mint Finance

Lumentum Is Building A 2026 Technology Supercycle — Could CW

Lumentum Holdings recently reported a noteworthy increase in revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, reaching $533.8 million, a 58%...

Baptista Research

[Part 1: The Materials Chokepoint] Looking Into (And Past) The Indium Price Story

AI optics demand crushes InP yield. Supply is squeezed with Sumitomo captive and AXT export-bound. Yet Japan's 7N red phosphorus monopoly is the...

Mint Finance

The AI Boom Is Becoming an Energy Infrastructure Story

AI-driven data centers are driving electricity demand growth in the US, requiring utilities to expand capacity with a mix of renewables and...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Where Is the True Value in the Optics Trade? A Comparison of 3 ETFs

Three new ETFs target the AI bandwidth bottleneck, but perform very differently. We analyse LAZR, LYTE & EUV to show why upstream components easily...

Mint Finance

LAZR: When a Photonics ETF Becomes a Private AI Wrapper

​Tema's LAZR ETF sees rapid drop in Anthropic SPV exposure, highlighting private-asset ETF volatility and questions about legal claims;...

Mint Finance

Lumentum Is Building A 2026 Technology Supercycle — Could CW

Lumentum Holdings recently reported a noteworthy increase in revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, reaching $533.8 million, a 58%...

Baptista Research

[Part 1: The Materials Chokepoint] Looking Into (And Past) The Indium Price Story

AI optics demand crushes InP yield. Supply is squeezed with Sumitomo captive and AXT export-bound. Yet Japan's 7N red phosphorus monopoly is the...

Mint Finance

The AI Boom Is Becoming an Energy Infrastructure Story

​AI-driven data centers are driving electricity demand growth in the US, requiring utilities to expand capacity with a mix of renewables and...

Mint Finance

Tema's LAZR ETF sees rapid drop in Anthropic SPV exposure, highlighting private-asset ETF volatility and questions about legal claims;...

AI-driven data centers are driving electricity demand growth in the US, requiring utilities to expand capacity with a mix of renewables and...