'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/121/977/original/2020-03-09_14-29-36.png?1583731808" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="121977"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Stoxx.com</div>ALTMAN'S Z-SCORE - Dr Edward Altman's Z-Score has been in use for over 50 years as a statistical model to calculate the probability of bankruptcy which built on the work of William Beaver and R.A. Fisher. Altman's original article (attached below) was published in the September 1968 issue of the Journal of Finance when he was an assistant professor of finance at NYU Stern.  The 'classic' Z-Score sampled publically-traded manufacturing companies. Later versions were formulated for private companies, non-manufacturing companies and emerging markets.  The model is between 80% and 90% accurate in predicting bankruptcy one year ahead of the event, while the rate of false positives has been between 15% and 20%.APPLICATION TO JAPAN - We have been using Altman Z-Scores in Japan since the mid-1980s. We have found the Scores to be reasonably predictive, as has been confirmed by several academic papers, including  <a href="https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/A-Model-of-Bankruptcy-Prediction%3A-Calibration-of/5565168f75b578ba28115ef314acbdd387f82483" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gurau (2013)</a>. The persistence of a large number of 'zombie' companies supported by banks or keiretsu 'relatives' has, however, reduced the overall 'hit' rate for larger listed companies. The following charts show a timeline of the Altman Z-Score and Market Capitalisation for several memorable Japanese corporate bankruptcies. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/122/005/original/2020-03-09_15-53-11.png?1583736804" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="122005"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/122/006/original/2020-03-09_15-54-52.png?1583736903" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="122006"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/122/007/original/2020-03-09_15-56-58.png?1583737032" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="122007"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/122/009/original/2020-03-09_15-59-08.png?1583737161" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="122009"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/122/011/original/2020-03-09_16-03-28.png?1583737425" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="122011"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><div class="content-highlight">This Insight is the second part of a three-part series attempting to highlight those Japanese companies that at the highest risk from the 2020 Covid-19 recession. The first focused on the<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-who-s-swimming-naked-part-1-audit-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37265" rel="noopener">Audit Score</a>, while a forthcoming Insight will look at Cumulative Cash Flows.</div>

Source • Stoxx.comALTMAN'S Z-SCORE - Dr Edward Altman's Z-Score has been in use for over 50 years as a statistical model to calculate the probability of bankruptcy which built on the work of William Beaver and R.A. Fisher. Altman's original article (attached below) was published in the September 1968 issue of the Journal of Finance when he was an assistant professor of finance at NYU Stern.  The 'classic' Z-Score sampled publically-traded manufacturing companies. Later versions were formulated for private companies, non-manufacturing companies and emerging markets.  The model is between 80% and 90% accurate in predicting bankruptcy one year ahead of the event, while the rate of false positives has been between 15% and 20%.APPLICATION TO JAPAN - We have been using Altman Z-Scores in Japan since the mid-1980s. We have found the Scores to be reasonably predictive, as has been confirmed by several academic papers, including  Gurau (2013). The persistence of a large number of 'zombie' companies supported by banks or keiretsu 'relatives' has, however, reduced the overall 'hit' rate for larger listed companies. The following charts show a timeline of the Altman Z-Score and Market Capitalisation for several memorable Japanese corporate bankruptcies. Source • Japan AnalyticsThis Insight is the second part of a three-part series attempting to highlight those Japanese companies that at the highest risk from the 2020 Covid-19 recession. The first focused on theAudit Score, while a forthcoming Insight will look at Cumulative Cash Flows.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Who’s Swimming Naked? > Part 2: Altman Z-Score

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Event-Driven

Elliott left Korea, but it didn't go very far. It chose Korea's closest neighbor, Japan, as its next stop. It is now sitting on SoftBank Group with about a 3% stake. Elliott reportedly wants to see a vast improvement in SoftBank's venture investment, the so-called Vision Fund. Well, it is quite understandable and no surprise. Then, what would be an immediate target? Again, unsurprisingly, it is Coupang that is in the limelight at this point. Korea's local street is speculating that Elliott may single out Coupang as an exemplary target of its activism efforts.Of course, we can not know what Elliott demands and how it will exercise its activism muscle on SoftBank and Coupang. It may or may not force SoftBank to completely get out of Coupang by selling off all of its stakes. But what at least seems inevitable is that Elliott will demand a quick and viable liquidation strategy. That is, SoftBank will likely find it extremely difficult to provide another massive capital injection into Coupang. Then, where does Coupang stand in terms of the money situation? Well, it is pretty bad and urgent. Last year again, it reportedly put up a ₩1.4tril operating loss.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/119/974/original/1.png?1582667306" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="119974"></figure>It got about ₩2.3tril in 2018 from the Vision Fund, but out of that ₩2.3tril, it has already consumed nearly ₩1.4tril. The street estimation is, at the current pace of operating loss, Coupang will completely deplete its capital pool by the third quarter of this year. So, like it or not, SoftBank will have two options left, either say farewell or have it go public. Of course, neither option would be a walk in the park. Finding a buyer in the short-term for a company that is losing like US$1bil a year would be one hell of a job (although the local street speculates about Amazon being as a potential buyer). For a similar reason, IPO on either KOSPI or NASDAQ should also be a very challenging job.So, SoftBank and Coupang need someone from outside for a makeup purpose. Realistically, that makeup would be for IPO. Then, who would that be? Well, the local street has been heavily speculating that Naver would take the role, yes again. We have seen at least three local news reports on the possibility since last December. Lately, a couple of the local brokerages have jumped in to argue on the likelihood of another SoftBank and Naver marriage.

Elliott left Korea, but it didn't go very far. It chose Korea's closest neighbor, Japan, as its next stop. It is now sitting on SoftBank Group with about a 3% stake. Elliott reportedly wants to see a vast improvement in SoftBank's venture investment, the so-called Vision Fund. Well, it is quite understandable and no surprise. Then, what would be an immediate target? Again, unsurprisingly, it is Coupang that is in the limelight at this point. Korea's local street is speculating that Elliott may single out Coupang as an exemplary target of its activism efforts.Of course, we can not know what Elliott demands and how it will exercise its activism muscle on SoftBank and Coupang. It may or may not force SoftBank to completely get out of Coupang by selling off all of its stakes. But what at least seems inevitable is that Elliott will demand a quick and viable liquidation strategy. That is, SoftBank will likely find it extremely difficult to provide another massive capital injection into Coupang. Then, where does Coupang stand in terms of the money situation? Well, it is pretty bad and urgent. Last year again, it reportedly put up a ₩1.4tril operating loss.It got about ₩2.3tril in 2018 from the Vision Fund, but out of that ₩2.3tril, it has already consumed nearly ₩1.4tril. The street estimation is, at the current pace of operating loss, Coupang will completely deplete its capital pool by the third quarter of this year. So, like it or not, SoftBank will have two options left, either say farewell or have it go public. Of course, neither option would be a walk in the park. Finding a buyer in the short-term for a company that is losing like US$1bil a year would be one hell of a job (although the local street speculates about Amazon being as a potential buyer). For a similar reason, IPO on either KOSPI or NASDAQ should also be a very challenging job.So, SoftBank and Coupang need someone from outside for a makeup purpose. Realistically, that makeup would be for IPO. Then, who would that be? Well, the local street has been heavily speculating that Naver would take the role, yes again. We have seen at least three local news reports on the possibility since last December. Lately, a couple of the local brokerages have jumped in to argue on the likelihood of another SoftBank and Naver marriage.

Naver, SoftBank's Savior Again? This Time with Coupang?

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Rakuten will unveil pricing plans for its facilities-based mobile service on 3 March, with reservations to start on 4 March and the actual service launch sometime in early April.  The current MVNO service offers a starting point on how to evaluate Rakuten's approach whilst incumbent promotional strategies also offer some ideas on what to expect. As we have discussed before, the company's relatively small coverage footprint will constrain discounting as it needs to balance market share expansion with operating losses.  We think Rakuten pricing will focus on simplicity and offer effective discounts of 20-30% over the incumbents today which should be manageable for the incumbents.

Rakuten will unveil pricing plans for its facilities-based mobile service on 3 March, with reservations to start on 4 March and the actual service launch sometime in early April.  The current MVNO service offers a starting point on how to evaluate Rakuten's approach whilst incumbent promotional strategies also offer some ideas on what to expect. As we have discussed before, the company's relatively small coverage footprint will constrain discounting as it needs to balance market share expansion with operating losses.  We think Rakuten pricing will focus on simplicity and offer effective discounts of 20-30% over the incumbents today which should be manageable for the incumbents. 

Japan Mobile: What We Expect when Rakuten Unveils Pricing Next Week

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Supun Walpola

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul><li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a>’s domestic e-commerce GMV growth fell at a much slower rate than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a>’ Shopping business GMV in 3Q FY03/20. This reaffirms our concerns that there could be more to Z’s Shopping business slowdown than just the consumption tax hike. </li></ul><ul><li>Z is also likely to fall short of its full-year Commerce business targets, although expectations look slightly better on paper due to the impact of ZOZO’s consolidation. </li></ul><ul><li>Z’s mobile payment platform, PayPay, is also likely to grow at a slower rate now that the total number of PayPay users are almost half of Z’s total e-commerce users. R-Pay’s growth started to slow down around the time when the number of R-Pay users reached around half of Rakuten’s total e-commerce users.</li></ul>


Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)’s domestic e-commerce GMV growth fell at a much slower rate than Z Holdings (4689 JP)’ Shopping business GMV in 3Q FY03/20. This reaffirms our concerns that there could be more to Z’s Shopping business slowdown than just the consumption tax hike. Z is also likely to fall short of its full-year Commerce business targets, although expectations look slightly better on paper due to the impact of ZOZO’s consolidation. Z’s mobile payment platform, PayPay, is also likely to grow at a slower rate now that the total number of PayPay users are almost half of Z’s total e-commerce users. R-Pay’s growth started to slow down around the time when the number of R-Pay users reached around half of Rakuten’s total e-commerce users.

Z Holdings: Rakuten’s Results Make Us Worry More About Z Holdings

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

When Origami, the only independent mobile payments provider, last month agreed to be bought by Mercari and merge its systems with Mercari’s own Merpay service, it was a sign of the growing necessity for scale in what is the fastest consolidating sector in Japan today.
Origami had scored a couple of major successes since launching in 2016 but, after the recent consolidation among the biggest players, it realised it just didn't have the budget to scale fast enough on its own. Mercari is in a similar situation but, even with Origami, Merpay remains one of the smaller players in the market.
Origami, Merpay and LINE are all too small to be able to afford the kind of aggressive incentives that PayPay has been offering and is a key reason why LINE agreed to a takeover by Z Holdings and Origami's merger with Merpay. Even then, this is not enough to take on the digital zaibatsu, Softbank/Z and Rakuten.
Last week's announcement of a tie-up between Mercari and NTT Docomo and the latter's determination not to lose out to Rakuten and Softbank/Z – it even tied with Amazon to avoid this – and the impossibility of Merpay being able to scale alone, suggests a full takeover of Merpay by NTT Docomo is on the cards.
If so, NTT Docomo has a chance to be one of the big 3 in cashless payments in Japan, alongside PayPay and Rakuten Pay (in the long-term).
The trouble is no one is going to be making money out of payments for a long time – unless PayPay stops offering all those juicy incentives.

When Origami, the only independent mobile payments provider, last month agreed to be bought by Mercari and merge its systems with Mercari’s own Merpay service, it was a sign of the growing necessity for scale in what is the fastest consolidating sector in Japan today.
Origami had scored a couple of major successes since launching in 2016 but, after the recent consolidation among the biggest players, it realised it just didn't have the budget to scale fast enough on its own. Mercari is in a similar situation but, even with Origami, Merpay remains one of the smaller players in the market.
Origami, Merpay and LINE are all too small to be able to afford the kind of aggressive incentives that PayPay has been offering and is a key reason why LINE agreed to a takeover by Z Holdings and Origami's merger with Merpay. Even then, this is not enough to take on the digital zaibatsu, Softbank/Z and Rakuten.
Last week's announcement of a tie-up between Mercari and NTT Docomo and the latter's determination not to lose out to Rakuten and Softbank/Z – it even tied with Amazon to avoid this – and the impossibility of Merpay being able to scale alone, suggests a full takeover of Merpay by NTT Docomo is on the cards.
If so, NTT Docomo has a chance to be one of the big 3 in cashless payments in Japan, alongside PayPay and Rakuten Pay (in the long-term).
The trouble is no one is going to be making money out of payments for a long time – unless PayPay stops offering all those juicy incentives.

Japan Payment Wars: NTT Docomo and Merpay/Origami to Attempt Catch up with PayPay and Rakuten

Japan

LY Corporation operates as an internet search engine "Yahoo! JAPAN". The Company provides electronic commerce and settlement finance services for small medium enterprises and individuals. LY also operates media business including search linked advertising and display advertising services.

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LY (4689 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Who’s Swimming Naked? > Part 2: Altman Z-Score

ALTMAN'S Z-SCORE - Dr Edward Altman's Z-Score has been in use for over 50 years as a statistical model to calculate the probability of bankruptcy...

Campbell Gunn

Naver, SoftBank's Savior Again? This Time with Coupang?

Elliott left Korea, but it didn't go very far. It chose Korea's closest neighbor, Japan, as its next stop. It is now sitting on SoftBank Group with...

Sanghyun Park

Japan Mobile: What We Expect when Rakuten Unveils Pricing Next Week

Rakuten will unveil pricing plans for its facilities-based mobile service on 3 March, with reservations to start on 4 March and the actual service...

Kirk Boodry

Z Holdings: Rakuten’s Results Make Us Worry More About Z Holdings

Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)’s domestic e-commerce GMV growth fell at a much slower rate than Z Holdings (4689 JP)’ Shopping business GMV in 3Q FY03/20....

Supun Walpola

Japan Payment Wars: NTT Docomo and Merpay/Origami to Attempt Catch up with PayPay and Rakuten

When Origami, the only independent mobile payments provider, last month agreed to be bought by Mercari and merge its systems with Mercari’s own...

Michael Causton

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