Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term, Urbem (HK) Limited

Urbem Capital

Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

Urbem (HK) Limited

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Our 2020 valuation caution held: the three leaders lost 10–77% of market value while TOPIX more than doubled, and M&amp;A Research Institute repeated the cycle faster.</li>
<li>The deeper error was classification: sell-side brokers mine a finite stock of successor-less owners, each served once, yet traded at compounder multiples of 50–90×.</li>
<li>Japan is solving succession faster than assumed, mostly without brokers; the winners will convert extraction profits into repeatable businesses before the ore thins.</li>
</ul>


Our 2020 valuation caution held: the three leaders lost 10–77% of market value while TOPIX more than doubled, and M&amp;A Research Institute repeated the cycle faster.
The deeper error was classification: sell-side brokers mine a finite stock of successor-less owners, each served once, yet traded at compounder multiples of 50–90×.
Japan is solving succession faster than assumed, mostly without brokers; the winners will convert extraction profits into repeatable businesses before the ore thins.


Miners, Not Compounders: Japan's SME M&A Brokers Six Years On

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Several days ago I published a piece showing the data for TOPIX flows for April month-end.</li>
<li>This is an update reflecting new data companies have reported to regulators, one large correction to a data provider's data, and one Very Large Flow.</li>
<li>I believe that the revised data is more accurate. And there is more flow. With a spreadsheet attached. </li>
</ul>


Several days ago I published a piece showing the data for TOPIX flows for April month-end.
This is an update reflecting new data companies have reported to regulators, one large correction to a data provider's data, and one Very Large Flow.
I believe that the revised data is more accurate. And there is more flow. With a spreadsheet attached. 


Updated TOPIX Big April Basket Flows; More Big Flows and ¥270bn a Side

<ul>
<li>Every year in April there is an interesting phenomenon with TOPIX. It is what <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/janaghan-jeyakumar-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3173" rel="noopener">Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA</a> calls "The Big April Basket." The TSE re-assesses Liquidity Factor Coefficients.</li>
<li>It also does a FFW change, and this year it has Phased Weight Reductions for those slowly leaving TOPIX and PWR re-inclusions for those identified last October as going back.</li>
<li>Janaghan had 18 "High Conviction" LF removals. All were hits. They are upweights. Then there are 34 changes to FFW coefficients.</li>
</ul>


Every year in April there is an interesting phenomenon with TOPIX. It is what Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA calls "The Big April Basket." The TSE re-assesses Liquidity Factor Coefficients.
It also does a FFW change, and this year it has Phased Weight Reductions for those slowly leaving TOPIX and PWR re-inclusions for those identified last October as going back.
Janaghan had 18 "High Conviction" LF removals. All were hits. They are upweights. Then there are 34 changes to FFW coefficients.


The TOPIX Big April Basket Flows:  ¥200bn a Side Including Many Multi-ADV Flows

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m-a-research-institute-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36749:1" rel="noopener">M&amp;A Research Institute (9552 JP)</a> announced it would list on the TSE Prime section on 29 August, which means it will join TOPIX at the close of 28-Sep-2023.</li>
<li>This is NOT a surprise. On 27 June, the company announced a secondary offering of 1.631mm shares (by the founder/CEO), and said it had applied for TSE Prime transfer. </li>
<li>I take a look at how this could play out. </li>
</ul>


Yesterday, M&amp;A Research Institute (9552 JP) announced it would list on the TSE Prime section on 29 August, which means it will join TOPIX at the close of 28-Sep-2023.
This is NOT a surprise. On 27 June, the company announced a secondary offering of 1.631mm shares (by the founder/CEO), and said it had applied for TSE Prime transfer. 
I take a look at how this could play out. 


M&A Research Institute Holdings (9552) TOPIX Inclusion

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>Since my last insight, three new TOPIX Inclusion events have been confirmed: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m-a-research-institute-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36749:1" rel="noopener">M&amp;A Research Institute (9552 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fp-partner-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40040:1" rel="noopener">FP Partner (7388 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/i-ne-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40117:1" rel="noopener">I-NE (4933 JP)</a> </li>
<li>Separately, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/core-concept-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34323:1" rel="noopener">Core Concept Technologies Inc (4371 JP)</a> has announced it intends to work towards a Prime Market move in the future.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
Since my last insight, three new TOPIX Inclusion events have been confirmed: M&amp;A Research Institute (9552 JP), FP Partner (7388 JP), and I-NE (4933 JP) 
Separately, Core Concept Technologies Inc (4371 JP) has announced it intends to work towards a Prime Market move in the future.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Sep 2023)

Japan

M&A Research Institute Inc. offers mergers and acquisitions services. The Company provides mergers and acquisitions brokerage, mergers and acquisitions media development, and other services. M&A Research Institute provides its services throughout Japan.

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M&A Research Institute (9552 JP)

Miners, Not Compounders: Japan's SME M&A Brokers Six Years On

Japan's SME M&A brokers were priced as compounders but run like miners: each seller transacts once, and Japan is depleting its succession ore body...

Urbem Capital

Updated TOPIX Big April Basket Flows; More Big Flows and ¥270bn a Side

Earnings releases in tech will start to pick up the next few days, and while the market is open on the 29th then also on the 1st and 2nd, the 5-day...

Travis Lundy

The TOPIX Big April Basket Flows: ¥200bn a Side Including Many Multi-ADV Flows

The TOPIX Big April Basket is ¥200bn a side of flows - FFW changes, PWR cascading deletions, PWR unwinds, share count changes, Liquidity Factor...

Travis Lundy

M&A Research Institute Holdings (9552) TOPIX Inclusion

M&A Research Institute is a TOPIX inclusion at end-Sep (28 Sep) at the close. The inclusion is 17% of Real World Float. The stock has dipped...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Sep 2023)

The Offer Price for I-NE (4933 JP)'s secondary sale of shares was decided today. Our estimates show the Offer Quantity could exceed the demand from...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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