Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The headline from The Nikkei is incredible: "NY Office Building Sold at '97% Discount.' This is a 23 floor building in midtown Manhattan which had 35% occupancy, built in 1960's. </li>
<li>Banks hold office buildings as collateral for their CRE loans, basically. They also hold other buildings at collateral, like shopping malls and strip malls. </li>
<li>The risk for US banks from worsening collateral values in CRE is much greater at small US banks (outside the largest 25 by assets) where they have high exposure.</li>
</ul>


The headline from The Nikkei is incredible: "NY Office Building Sold at '97% Discount.' This is a 23 floor building in midtown Manhattan which had 35% occupancy, built in 1960's. 
Banks hold office buildings as collateral for their CRE loans, basically. They also hold other buildings at collateral, like shopping malls and strip malls. 
The risk for US banks from worsening collateral values in CRE is much greater at small US banks (outside the largest 25 by assets) where they have high exposure.


US Banks - NY CRE Sold at 97% Discount, HFD Weekly Data Shows Small US Banks At Most Risk

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Breadth has expanded significantly in recent weeks with the Russell 2000 (IWM) breaking above major 2.5-year resistance at $210; $210 is now critical support moving forward.</li>
<li>Technology/Large-Cap growth/Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has consolidated after getting extended, and with June 12 gap support on QQQ getting filled/breaking today, it appears this pullback is likely to continue.</li>
<li>The SPX is breaking its 20-day MA. June 12th gap at 5375-5409 is potential support, but it appears a pullback in the SPX and QQQ may be headed to 5191/$449.</li>
</ul>


Breadth has expanded significantly in recent weeks with the Russell 2000 (IWM) breaking above major 2.5-year resistance at $210; $210 is now critical support moving forward.
Technology/Large-Cap growth/Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has consolidated after getting extended, and with June 12 gap support on QQQ getting filled/breaking today, it appears this pullback is likely to continue.
The SPX is breaking its 20-day MA. June 12th gap at 5375-5409 is potential support, but it appears a pullback in the SPX and QQQ may be headed to 5191/$449.


Monitoring Small- Vs. Large-Caps and Growth Vs. Value; $SPX, $QQQ in Pullback Mode

<ul>
<li>There is a long period of flat lining loans for large US banks indicative of weak demand that is persistent and risk-aversion by banks. </li>
<li>Large time deposits have swelled and this should continue to 'roll through' banks' income statement with high funding cost growth.</li>
<li>We show about 30 of the largest banks in the US, their profile of high funding costs growth and weak interest income growth; flat loans will not help.</li>
</ul>


There is a long period of flat lining loans for large US banks indicative of weak demand that is persistent and risk-aversion by banks. 
Large time deposits have swelled and this should continue to 'roll through' banks' income statement with high funding cost growth.
We show about 30 of the largest banks in the US, their profile of high funding costs growth and weak interest income growth; flat loans will not help.


US Banks - Flat Loans ~USD6.7 Trillion for Almost Every Week for Nearly 2 Years

<ul>
<li>US large banks weekly data shows loan growth now turning to negative, not a positive outlook for bank earnings or core income</li>
<li>C&amp;I loan growth is more negative than other major segments, suggesting limited demand, but also risk-aversion by banks</li>
<li>Even where Jumbo Time Deposits growth is now only 59% YoY there is still likely to be major pressure on banks' funding costs</li>
</ul>


US large banks weekly data shows loan growth now turning to negative, not a positive outlook for bank earnings or core income
C&amp;I loan growth is more negative than other major segments, suggesting limited demand, but also risk-aversion by banks
Even where Jumbo Time Deposits growth is now only 59% YoY there is still likely to be major pressure on banks' funding costs


US Banks - HFD Shows Loan Growth Turning Negative Just Now, with C&I Worsening the Most

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Regional and small US banks face a greater risk to rising delinquencies on CRE loans given their higher exposure to CRE debt.</li>
<li>CRE loan delinquency rates and net charge-offs have accelerated since Q32022, mostly driven by the office space portfolio.</li>
<li>Within the CRE industry, property types such as hotels, offices and retail assets have the highest average rate caps, respectively.</li>
</ul>


Regional and small US banks face a greater risk to rising delinquencies on CRE loans given their higher exposure to CRE debt.
CRE loan delinquency rates and net charge-offs have accelerated since Q32022, mostly driven by the office space portfolio.
Within the CRE industry, property types such as hotels, offices and retail assets have the highest average rate caps, respectively.


Crisis in US CRE to Disproportionately Impact Regional Banks

United States

M&T Bank Corporation is a bank holding company. The Company, through its banking subsidiaries, offer a variety of commercial banking, trust, and investment services to their customers.  M&T Bank operates branch offices in New York, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Delaware, New Jersey, Virginia, West Virginia and the District of Columbia.

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M & T Bank Corp (MTB US)

US Banks - NY CRE Sold at 97% Discount, HFD Weekly Data Shows Small US Banks At Most Risk

The headline of a NY office building selling at a 97% discount should be chilling for small US banks, which have 44% of their loans in CRE. Large...

Daniel Tabbush

Monitoring Small- Vs. Large-Caps and Growth Vs. Value; $SPX, $QQQ in Pullback Mode

Monitoring Small- Vs. Large-Caps and Growth Vs. Value; $IWM Still Above Major Support at $210, but $SPX $QQQ are in Pullback Mode. Possible this...

Vermilion Research

US Banks - Flat Loans ~USD6.7 Trillion for Almost Every Week for Nearly 2 Years

US loans are flat for most all weeks for nearly two years, and funding costs have surged, putting net interest income under pressure, and this...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - HFD Shows Loan Growth Turning Negative Just Now, with C&I Worsening the Most

Looking at HFD of US large banks we see loan growth suddenly turning negative, with C&I growth the most negative. Large time deposit growth 59% YoY...

Daniel Tabbush

Crisis in US CRE to Disproportionately Impact Regional Banks

Regional banks' asset quality is under greater threat given their high exposure to CRE loans. Hotels, offices, and retail assets have the highest...

Mint Finance

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