China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>2618.HK/002352.CH: Cainiao launching its own national express delivery network (-/-)</li>
<li>3690.HK/PDD: Meituan planning to launch “Summer War” in community group buying (-/-)</li>
<li>BEKE: Beike is planning to extend business to real estate upstream, exploiting extra value beyond new home sales channel(-)</li>
</ul>


2618.HK/002352.CH: Cainiao launching its own national express delivery network (-/-)
3690.HK/PDD: Meituan planning to launch “Summer War” in community group buying (-/-)
BEKE: Beike is planning to extend business to real estate upstream, exploiting extra value beyond new home sales channel(-)


China TMT Update-2618.HK/2352.CH/3690.HK/PDD/BEKE-Cainiao Launching Express Delivery Network

<ul>
<li>700.HK/NetEase: Tencent's in-development project codenamed "Paradise" started recruiting players for its closed beta test. </li>
<li>BGNE: AbbVie sued BeiGene over patent infringement on BRUKINSA (-)</li>
<li>002352.SZ: SF Express may cooperate with J&amp;T on international logistics (+)</li>
</ul>


700.HK/NetEase: Tencent's in-development project codenamed "Paradise" started recruiting players for its closed beta test. 
BGNE: AbbVie sued BeiGene over patent infringement on BRUKINSA (-)
002352.SZ: SF Express may cooperate with J&amp;T on international logistics (+)


China TMT Update - 700.HK/NTES/BGNE/2352.SZ: Tencent's In-Development Project "Paradise" Start Test.

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>The scale of fraud in a new US federal criminal complaint – US$60M of fake postage – mirrors the recent dramatic growth of Chinese e-commerce platforms that target US consumers</li>
<li>The case also highlights the importance of securing cheap last-mile US distribution for the Chinese e-commerce platforms selling inexpensive goods directly to US consumers</li>
<li>It’s unclear which of the Chinese platforms benefited from the scheme, but the incident should refocus investors’ attention on logistics as a critical piece of their business models </li>
</ul>


The scale of fraud in a new US federal criminal complaint – US$60M of fake postage – mirrors the recent dramatic growth of Chinese e-commerce platforms that target US consumers
The case also highlights the importance of securing cheap last-mile US distribution for the Chinese e-commerce platforms selling inexpensive goods directly to US consumers
It’s unclear which of the Chinese platforms benefited from the scheme, but the incident should refocus investors’ attention on logistics as a critical piece of their business models 


The Curious Case of $60M of Bogus US Postage or 'How Can They Can Make Money Exporting $5 Shirts?!'

<ul>
<li>Gross margin compression in China's express industry has been going on for years and predates the Covid crisis. But margins have enjoyed a modest recovery since late 2021</li>
<li>Since 2019, margins have fallen and the distribution of profits among China's listed express companies has changed dramatically, with two clear-cut losers</li>
<li>Even though two listed express companies have seen their profitability compressed dramatically, there are no signs of industry consolidation -- and some parties like it that way</li>
</ul>


Gross margin compression in China's express industry has been going on for years and predates the Covid crisis. But margins have enjoyed a modest recovery since late 2021
Since 2019, margins have fallen and the distribution of profits among China's listed express companies has changed dramatically, with two clear-cut losers
Even though two listed express companies have seen their profitability compressed dramatically, there are no signs of industry consolidation -- and some parties like it that way


Chinese Express Consolidation? Lesser Players Battered for Years, But Still No Knockout Punch

<ul>
<li>Combined January-February express industry parcel volume was up just 4.6% Y/Y, and ASPs were down -1.8% Y/Y</li>
<li>Listed express companies' parcel volume and government-reported online tangible goods sales in the first two months of 2023 also both up a modest ~5% Y/Y</li>
<li>In a year when one express player hopes to list its shares, it's unclear who will be willing to concede market share. We expect price competition to intensify in 2023.</li>
</ul>


Combined January-February express industry parcel volume was up just 4.6% Y/Y, and ASPs were down -1.8% Y/Y
Listed express companies' parcel volume and government-reported online tangible goods sales in the first two months of 2023 also both up a modest ~5% Y/Y
In a year when one express player hopes to list its shares, it's unclear who will be willing to concede market share. We expect price competition to intensify in 2023.


TRACKING TRAFFIC: Chinese Express / No Signs of a Sharp Recovery in Jan-Feb Data

China

S.F. Holding Co., Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides logistics, order tracking, supply chain management, and warehousing services. S.F. Holding operates worldwide.

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S.F. Holding (002352 CH)

China TMT Update-2618.HK/2352.CH/3690.HK/PDD/BEKE-Cainiao Launching Express Delivery Network

2618.HK/352.CH: Cainiao launching own national express delivery network；3690.HK/PDD: Meituan planning to launch “Summer War” in CGB；BEKE: Beike is...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China TMT Update - 700.HK/NTES/BGNE/2352.SZ: Tencent's In-Development Project "Paradise" Start Test.

700.HK/NetEase: Tencent's in-development project codenamed "Paradise" started beta test；BGNE: AbbVie sued BeiGene over patent infringement on...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

The Curious Case of $60M of Bogus US Postage or 'How Can They Can Make Money Exporting $5 Shirts?!'

Thie story of fake US postage being used to distribute Chinese goods to US consumers isn't just a fascinating story -- it could potentially have...

Tracking Traffic

Chinese Express Consolidation? Lesser Players Battered for Years, But Still No Knockout Punch

Margins in China's express sector have been falling for years. However, there are few signs of consolidation: companies remain profitable, and...

Tracking Traffic

TRACKING TRAFFIC: Chinese Express / No Signs of a Sharp Recovery in Jan-Feb Data

So far in 2023, parcel volume has recovered only moderately. We believe the industry may again see price deterioration after a brief respite in 2022.

Tracking Traffic

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