Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Organic growth in J&amp;T's China operations exceeded that of peers...</li>
<li>...but the implosion of New Markets and X-Border is a shock</li>
<li>Lower margins from SE Asian cash cow also a surprise, in our view</li>
</ul>


Organic growth in J&amp;T's China operations exceeded that of peers...
...but the implosion of New Markets and X-Border is a shock
Lower margins from SE Asian cash cow also a surprise, in our view


The Three Biggest Surprises in J&T Global Express' Maiden Earnings Report

<ul>
<li>In Q423, ZTO's parcel volumes grew by +32% Y/Y, faster than market growth</li>
<li>But weak pricing resulted in EPS growth of just +2% Y/Y in the period</li>
<li>In FY24, management expects parcel growth to roughly halve - AVOID</li>
</ul>


In Q423, ZTO's parcel volumes grew by +32% Y/Y, faster than market growth
But weak pricing resulted in EPS growth of just +2% Y/Y in the period
In FY24, management expects parcel growth to roughly halve - AVOID


ZTO Express Q423 Results & Guidance in One Simple Table | +32% Volume --> +2% EPS?! | AVOID

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BABA/002352.SZ/1519.HK: Taobao/Tmall adjusts algorithm to favor merchants with better service capabilities (+/+/-)</li>
<li>3690 HK: Meituan QuanQuan shift from direct operating into third party operating, and cut nearly 200 BD job positions(+)</li>
<li>700 HK/259960 KRX:The development team of &lt;PUBG&gt; has unveiled its major game update plan for 2024.(+)  </li>
</ul>


BABA/002352.SZ/1519.HK: Taobao/Tmall adjusts algorithm to favor merchants with better service capabilities (+/+/-)
3690 HK: Meituan QuanQuan shift from direct operating into third party operating, and cut nearly 200 BD job positions(+)
700 HK/259960 KRX:The development team of &lt;PUBG&gt; has unveiled its major game update plan for 2024.(+)  


[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:BABA/002352 SZ/1519 HK/3690 HK/META/700 HK/259960 KRX

<ul>
<li>In Q423 JD Logistics booked 10% top-line growth &amp; solid margin improvement</li>
<li>We analyze the impacts of JD.com &amp; Deppon Logistics on JD Logistics' Q423</li>
<li>Given still-low profitability, JD Logistics does not appear cheap, in our view</li>
</ul>


In Q423 JD Logistics booked 10% top-line growth &amp; solid margin improvement
We analyze the impacts of JD.com &amp; Deppon Logistics on JD Logistics' Q423
Given still-low profitability, JD Logistics does not appear cheap, in our view


Analyzing the Roles Parent JD.com & Subsidiary Deppon Played in JD Logistics' Q423 Results

<ul>
<li>Industry ASP declined -15.5% Y/Y in January to just 8.36 CNY, a record low</li>
<li>Despite strong volume (+85% Y/Y) some firms have likely turned unprofitable</li>
<li>International parcel growth strong; SF still avoiding worst of domestic price wars</li>
</ul>


Industry ASP declined -15.5% Y/Y in January to just 8.36 CNY, a record low
Despite strong volume (+85% Y/Y) some firms have likely turned unprofitable
International parcel growth strong; SF still avoiding worst of domestic price wars


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Industry ASP Fell to Record Low Last Month | (February 2024)

China

S.F. Holding Co., Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides logistics, order tracking, supply chain management, and warehousing services. S.F. Holding operates worldwide.

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S.F. Holding (002352 CH)

The Three Biggest Surprises in J&T Global Express' Maiden Earnings Report

Stronger-than-expected China revenue, worsening performance of 'Other', and declining SE Asian margins are the three biggest surprises we see in...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express Q423 Results & Guidance in One Simple Table | +32% Volume --> +2% EPS?! | AVOID

ZTO managed to convert +32% volume growth in Q423 into just +2% EPS growth. Looking at 2024, management expects volume growth to slow dramatically.

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:BABA/002352 SZ/1519 HK/3690 HK/META/700 HK/259960 KRX

Major e-commerce platforms adjust algorithms for better merchant service, Meituan shifts to third-party operations, PUBG announces major game...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Analyzing the Roles Parent JD.com & Subsidiary Deppon Played in JD Logistics' Q423 Results

JD Logistics reported +10% top-line growth in Q423, and strong improvements in margins. In this insight we look at the dynamics between JD...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Industry ASP Fell to Record Low Last Month | (February 2024)

More operating days in January 2024 lifted parcel volume growth, but industry ASP declined to the lowest level on record. We believe at current...

Tracking Traffic

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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The Three Biggest Surprises in J&T Global Express' Maiden Earnings Report

Stronger-than-expected China revenue, worsening performance of 'Other', and declining SE Asian margins are the three biggest surprises we see in...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express Q423 Results & Guidance in One Simple Table | +32% Volume --> +2% EPS?! | AVOID

ZTO managed to convert +32% volume growth in Q423 into just +2% EPS growth. Looking at 2024, management expects volume growth to slow dramatically.

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily - TMT Update]:BABA/002352 SZ/1519 HK/3690 HK/META/700 HK/259960 KRX

​Major e-commerce platforms adjust algorithms for better merchant service, Meituan shifts to third-party operations, PUBG announces major game...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Analyzing the Roles Parent JD.com & Subsidiary Deppon Played in JD Logistics' Q423 Results

JD Logistics reported +10% top-line growth in Q423, and strong improvements in margins. In this insight we look at the dynamics between JD...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Industry ASP Fell to Record Low Last Month | (February 2024)

More operating days in January 2024 lifted parcel volume growth, but industry ASP declined to the lowest level on record. We believe at current...

Tracking Traffic

Major e-commerce platforms adjust algorithms for better merchant service, Meituan shifts to third-party operations, PUBG announces major game...