Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Bottom-Up

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network (1437124D HK)

<ul>
<li>For certain companies now seeking IPOs, X-border volumes may serve as demand proxy</li>
<li>In 2023, Chinese X-border volume growth has accelerated, up +55% Y/Y through September</li>
<li>In developing X-border express market, lower ASPs are actually a good thing, in our view</li>
</ul>


For certain companies now seeking IPOs, X-border volumes may serve as demand proxy
In 2023, Chinese X-border volume growth has accelerated, up +55% Y/Y through September
In developing X-border express market, lower ASPs are actually a good thing, in our view


Introducing Monthly Tracking of Chinese X-Border Express Parcel Data | YTD Volume up +55%, ASPs -25%

<ul>
<li>The four China-listed express companies reported divergent March volume, price trends</li>
<li>It appears March and Q126 volume growth remained soft, but ASPs mostly improved Y/Y</li>
<li>STO Express, aligned with Alibaba and CaiNiao, showed the strangest March / Q126 data</li>
</ul>


The four China-listed express companies reported divergent March volume, price trends
It appears March and Q126 volume growth remained soft, but ASPs mostly improved Y/Y
STO Express, aligned with Alibaba and CaiNiao, showed the strangest March / Q126 data


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March and Q126 Data From Four China-Listed Firms? All Over the Map

<ul>
<li>February numbers noisy, so we look at combined January-February change in volume</li>
<li>In the first two months of 2026, four China-listed companies' parcel volume up &lt; 8%</li>
<li>Single-Digit growth makes cost cuts tough, puts ZTO's 10%+ growth target into context</li>
</ul>


February numbers noisy, so we look at combined January-February change in volume
In the first two months of 2026, four China-listed companies' parcel volume up &lt; 8%
Single-Digit growth makes cost cuts tough, puts ZTO's 10%+ growth target into context


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Sluggish < 8% Volume Growth YTD from Four China-Listed Companies

<ul>
<li>In January, the four China-listed express companies reported volatile operating statistics</li>
<li>Total parcel volume grew by 19% Y/Y; price momentum ranged from +14% to -6%</li>
<li>We believe the market is unsettled following the formation of a SF Hldg - J&amp;T alliance</li>
</ul>


In January, the four China-listed express companies reported volatile operating statistics
Total parcel volume grew by 19% Y/Y; price momentum ranged from +14% to -6%
We believe the market is unsettled following the formation of a SF Hldg - J&amp;T alliance


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Lots of Noise in January 2026 Numbers From Four China-Listed Firms

<ul>
<li>Industry parcel volume growth slowed dramatically in Q425, but SF gained volume share</li>
<li>ZTO Express continued to report slow growth, insufficient to drive down unit costs</li>
<li>Did growth of Chinese "instant retail" impact mainstream express segment in Q425?</li>
</ul>


Industry parcel volume growth slowed dramatically in Q425, but SF gained volume share
ZTO Express continued to report slow growth, insufficient to drive down unit costs
Did growth of Chinese "instant retail" impact mainstream express segment in Q425?


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Q425 Volume, ASP Data Show SF Holding Strength, ZTO Struggles

China

S.F. Holding Co., Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides logistics, order tracking, supply chain management, and warehousing services. S.F. Holding operates worldwide.

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S.F. Holding (002352 CH)

Introducing Monthly Tracking of Chinese X-Border Express Parcel Data | YTD Volume up +55%, ASPs -25%

Chinese X-border express parcel volume growth has accelerated dramatically in 2023, and unit pricing has fallen sharply. In this note we dissect...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March and Q126 Data From Four China-Listed Firms? All Over the Map

The four China-listed express companies reported oddly divergent numbers again in March. Overall, it appears parcel volume for this group grew at...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Sluggish < 8% Volume Growth YTD from Four China-Listed Companies

Combined January-February parcel volume grew by <8%, continuing the trend of sub-10% growth seen in Q425. Under these conditions it will be...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Lots of Noise in January 2026 Numbers From Four China-Listed Firms

The monthly operating statistics reported by the four China-listed express companies for January look strange, and we believe they contain lots of...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Q425 Volume, ASP Data Show SF Holding Strength, ZTO Struggles

China's listed express parcel companies reported highly diverse volume and price data for Q425. The numbers show strong share gains for SF Holding,...

Tracking Traffic

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