Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>In the last few days, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunwels-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43702:1" rel="noopener">SUNWELS Co (9229 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macbee-planet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39863:1" rel="noopener">Macbee Planet (7095 JP)</a> have announced their moves to TSE prime which would eventually trigger a TOPIX Inclusion event.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macbee-planet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39863:1" rel="noopener">Macbee Planet</a> was in our highest conviction list but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunwels-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43702:1" rel="noopener">SUNWELS Co</a> was not. In this insight, we have made some modifications to our methodology to improve future hit rates.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
In the last few days, SUNWELS Co (9229 JP) and Macbee Planet (7095 JP) have announced their moves to TSE prime which would eventually trigger a TOPIX Inclusion event.

Macbee Planet was in our highest conviction list but SUNWELS Co was not. In this insight, we have made some modifications to our methodology to improve future hit rates.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (July 2024)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>SilverCape has launched a hostile preconditional tender offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1697:1" rel="noopener">Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP)</a> at JPY2,380, a 20.8% premium to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hakuhodo-dy-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8736:1" rel="noopener">Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP)</a> JPY1,970 offer. </li>
<li>The Board stonewalled SilverCape’s attempts to negotiate a friendly offer. SilverCape’s offer is based on EV/EBITDA multiples and will commence in late November.</li>
<li>The situation shares similarities with Soft99's contested offer. The Board is likely to oppose the SilverCape offer. Hakuhodo’s likely move will be to extend the close and disclose current acceptances. </li>
</ul>


SilverCape has launched a hostile preconditional tender offer for Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) at JPY2,380, a 20.8% premium to the Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) JPY1,970 offer. 
The Board stonewalled SilverCape’s attempts to negotiate a friendly offer. SilverCape’s offer is based on EV/EBITDA multiples and will commence in late November.
The situation shares similarities with Soft99's contested offer. The Board is likely to oppose the SilverCape offer. Hakuhodo’s likely move will be to extend the close and disclose current acceptances. 


Digital Holdings (2389 JP): SilverCape Counters with a Hostile Preconditional Offer

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 13th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,593m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Softbank, Fast Retailing, Ihi, Advantest, Toyota Motor, Isuzu Motors, Skylark, Fujikura, Nintendo, Mcdonald's.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 13th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,593m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Softbank, Fast Retailing, Ihi, Advantest, Toyota Motor, Isuzu Motors, Skylark, Fujikura, Nintendo, Mcdonald's.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 13th): Softbank, Fast Retailing, Ihi, Advantest, Toyota Motor

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carta-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9634:1" rel="noopener">Carta Holdings, Inc. (3688 JP)</a> has recommended a preconditional tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)</a> at JPY2,100, a 37.2% premium to the last close price.</li>
<li>The offer is preconditional on several regulatory approvals, expected to commence in late August, and aligns with the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range.</li>
<li>Due to irrevocables from the controlling shareholder and key management, the required minority tendering rate is 11.2%. This low rate points to a done deal. </li>
</ul>



Carta Holdings, Inc. (3688 JP) has recommended a preconditional tender offer from NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP) at JPY2,100, a 37.2% premium to the last close price.
The offer is preconditional on several regulatory approvals, expected to commence in late August, and aligns with the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range.
Due to irrevocables from the controlling shareholder and key management, the required minority tendering rate is 11.2%. This low rate points to a done deal. 


Carta Holdings (3688 JP): NTT DoCoMo’s JPY2,100 Preconditional Tender Offer Is a Done Deal

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> was (finally) included in the Shanghai/Shenzhen-HK Connect programs; on the same day a Cayman court uplifted a BABA dissenter's merger price by 659%.</li>
<li>MBK has teamed up with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/young-poong-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11740:1" rel="noopener">Young Poong (000670 KS)</a> to secure control of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-zinc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17944:1" rel="noopener">Korea Zinc (010130 KS)</a> via Partial Tender Offers for Korea Zinc and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/young-poong-precision-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16188:1" rel="noopener">Young Poong Precision (036560 KS)</a>
</li>
<li>Like all long-dated arbs, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric (6967 JP)</a> is really about buying dips, then lightening up when it gets tighter, as long as the opinion about eventual result/path is unchanged.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) was (finally) included in the Shanghai/Shenzhen-HK Connect programs; on the same day a Cayman court uplifted a BABA dissenter's merger price by 659%.
MBK has teamed up with Young Poong (000670 KS) to secure control of Korea Zinc (010130 KS) via Partial Tender Offers for Korea Zinc and Young Poong Precision (036560 KS)

Like all long-dated arbs, Shinko Electric (6967 JP) is really about buying dips, then lightening up when it gets tighter, as long as the opinion about eventual result/path is unchanged.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Alibaba, Young Poong/Korea Zinc, Shinko Electric, Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec

Japan

MacbeePlanet,Inc. provides marketing data analysis services. The Company offers consumer inflow paths and behavior patterns data analysis, consumer behavior machine learning, and analytics consulting services. MacbeePlanet serves clients across Japan.

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Macbee Planet (7095 JP)

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (July 2024)

We have revised our framework to improve the weightings for the key factors in the TSE Prime transfer requirements. Now we see 81 names that can...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Digital Holdings (2389 JP): SilverCape Counters with a Hostile Preconditional Offer

The situation shares similarities with Soft99 tender. The Board is likely to oppose the SilverCape offer. Hakuhodo’s likely move will be to extend...

Arun George

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 13th): Softbank, Fast Retailing, Ihi, Advantest, Toyota Motor

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Softbank, Fast Retailing, Ihi, Advantest, Toyota Motor, Isuzu...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Carta Holdings (3688 JP): NTT DoCoMo’s JPY2,100 Preconditional Tender Offer Is a Done Deal

Due to irrevocables from the controlling shareholder and key management, the required minority tendering rate is 11.2%. This low rate points to a...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Alibaba, Young Poong/Korea Zinc, Shinko Electric, Guotai Junan/Haitong Sec

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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