Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Macbee Planet is a Tokyo-listed “LTV marketing” company that runs performance-fee digital-advertising campaigns for Japanese corporate clients, mostly in financial services, beauty, staffing and medical, buying affiliate and programmatic media on their behalf and earning a cost-per-acquisition fee.</li><li>A proprietary analytics platform, “Honeycomb,” allocates spend across dozens of media partners; it’s a spread business, revenue is the CPA fee clients pay, cost of sales is what Macbee pays publishers to generate the conversion.</li><li>The stock sits near a two-year low after guiding for 9% profit growth in June 2025, cutting that to a 27% decline six months later, then missing even the reduced number in June 2026.</li></ul>

Macbee Planet is a Tokyo-listed “LTV marketing” company that runs performance-fee digital-advertising campaigns for Japanese corporate clients, mostly in financial services, beauty, staffing and medical, buying affiliate and programmatic media on their behalf and earning a cost-per-acquisition fee.A proprietary analytics platform, “Honeycomb,” allocates spend across dozens of media partners; it’s a spread business, revenue is the CPA fee clients pay, cost of sales is what Macbee pays publishers to generate the conversion.The stock sits near a two-year low after guiding for 9% profit growth in June 2025, cutting that to a 27% decline six months later, then missing even the reduced number in June 2026.

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "<strong>Who is Ready</strong>" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>In the last few days, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunwels-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43702:1" rel="noopener">SUNWELS Co (9229 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macbee-planet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39863:1" rel="noopener">Macbee Planet (7095 JP)</a> have announced their moves to TSE prime which would eventually trigger a TOPIX Inclusion event.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macbee-planet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39863:1" rel="noopener">Macbee Planet</a> was in our highest conviction list but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunwels-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43702:1" rel="noopener">SUNWELS Co</a> was not. In this insight, we have made some modifications to our methodology to improve future hit rates.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
In the last few days, SUNWELS Co (9229 JP) and Macbee Planet (7095 JP) have announced their moves to TSE prime which would eventually trigger a TOPIX Inclusion event.

Macbee Planet was in our highest conviction list but SUNWELS Co was not. In this insight, we have made some modifications to our methodology to improve future hit rates.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (July 2024)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>SilverCape has launched a hostile preconditional tender offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1697:1" rel="noopener">Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP)</a> at JPY2,380, a 20.8% premium to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hakuhodo-dy-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8736:1" rel="noopener">Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP)</a> JPY1,970 offer. </li>
<li>The Board stonewalled SilverCape’s attempts to negotiate a friendly offer. SilverCape’s offer is based on EV/EBITDA multiples and will commence in late November.</li>
<li>The situation shares similarities with Soft99's contested offer. The Board is likely to oppose the SilverCape offer. Hakuhodo’s likely move will be to extend the close and disclose current acceptances. </li>
</ul>


SilverCape has launched a hostile preconditional tender offer for Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) at JPY2,380, a 20.8% premium to the Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) JPY1,970 offer. 
The Board stonewalled SilverCape’s attempts to negotiate a friendly offer. SilverCape’s offer is based on EV/EBITDA multiples and will commence in late November.
The situation shares similarities with Soft99's contested offer. The Board is likely to oppose the SilverCape offer. Hakuhodo’s likely move will be to extend the close and disclose current acceptances. 


Digital Holdings (2389 JP): SilverCape Counters with a Hostile Preconditional Offer

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 13th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,593m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Softbank, Fast Retailing, Ihi, Advantest, Toyota Motor, Isuzu Motors, Skylark, Fujikura, Nintendo, Mcdonald's.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 13th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,593m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Softbank, Fast Retailing, Ihi, Advantest, Toyota Motor, Isuzu Motors, Skylark, Fujikura, Nintendo, Mcdonald's.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 13th): Softbank, Fast Retailing, Ihi, Advantest, Toyota Motor

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carta-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9634:1" rel="noopener">Carta Holdings, Inc. (3688 JP)</a> has recommended a preconditional tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)</a> at JPY2,100, a 37.2% premium to the last close price.</li>
<li>The offer is preconditional on several regulatory approvals, expected to commence in late August, and aligns with the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range.</li>
<li>Due to irrevocables from the controlling shareholder and key management, the required minority tendering rate is 11.2%. This low rate points to a done deal. </li>
</ul>



Carta Holdings, Inc. (3688 JP) has recommended a preconditional tender offer from NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP) at JPY2,100, a 37.2% premium to the last close price.
The offer is preconditional on several regulatory approvals, expected to commence in late August, and aligns with the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range.
Due to irrevocables from the controlling shareholder and key management, the required minority tendering rate is 11.2%. This low rate points to a done deal. 


Carta Holdings (3688 JP): NTT DoCoMo’s JPY2,100 Preconditional Tender Offer Is a Done Deal

Japan

MacbeePlanet,Inc. provides marketing data analysis services. The Company offers consumer inflow paths and behavior patterns data analysis, consumer behavior machine learning, and analytics consulting services. MacbeePlanet serves clients across Japan.

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Macbee Planet (7095 JP)

Monday Delight: 10/08/2026

Macbee Planet is a Tokyo-listed “LTV marketing” company that runs performance-fee digital-advertising campaigns for Japanese corporate clients,...

Contrarian Cashflows

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (July 2024)

We have revised our framework to improve the weightings for the key factors in the TSE Prime transfer requirements. Now we see 81 names that can...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Digital Holdings (2389 JP): SilverCape Counters with a Hostile Preconditional Offer

The situation shares similarities with Soft99 tender. The Board is likely to oppose the SilverCape offer. Hakuhodo’s likely move will be to extend...

Arun George

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 13th): Softbank, Fast Retailing, Ihi, Advantest, Toyota Motor

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Softbank, Fast Retailing, Ihi, Advantest, Toyota Motor, Isuzu...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Carta Holdings (3688 JP): NTT DoCoMo’s JPY2,100 Preconditional Tender Offer Is a Done Deal

Due to irrevocables from the controlling shareholder and key management, the required minority tendering rate is 11.2%. This low rate points to a...

Arun George

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