Japan Experts, Extraordinary Performance, Astris Advisory Japan

Astris Advisory Japan

Japan Experts, Extraordinary Performance

Our Corporate Advisory service is designed to give clients access to a wider range of investors. These include Japan specialists as well as global investors. The goal is to help achieve a fair equity valuation.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Q1 FY4/27 results were broadly in line with company expectations, but the key development was a major reset of the management structure, business strategy and Group portfolio.</li><li>We view the changes positively, despite some inevitable near-term uncertainty over earnings visibility and execution.</li><li>Management appears increasingly focused on improving profitability and building a higher-value-added growth model, while taking decisive action on All Ads due to differences in strategic direction; this planned deconsolidation is a bold strategic move, sacrificing revenue scale for a potentially leaner, higher- margin earnings profile, while expanding the Group's pool of funds for growth investment.</li></ul>

Q1 FY4/27 results were broadly in line with company expectations, but the key development was a major reset of the management structure, business strategy and Group portfolio.We view the changes positively, despite some inevitable near-term uncertainty over earnings visibility and execution.Management appears increasingly focused on improving profitability and building a higher-value-added growth model, while taking decisive action on All Ads due to differences in strategic direction; this planned deconsolidation is a bold strategic move, sacrificing revenue scale for a potentially leaner, higher- margin earnings profile, while expanding the Group's pool of funds for growth investment.

Macbee Planet (7095 JP) - A Bold Strategic Reset

Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

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<ul><li>Macbee Planet is a Tokyo-listed “LTV marketing” company that runs performance-fee digital-advertising campaigns for Japanese corporate clients, mostly in financial services, beauty, staffing and medical, buying affiliate and programmatic media on their behalf and earning a cost-per-acquisition fee.</li><li>A proprietary analytics platform, “Honeycomb,” allocates spend across dozens of media partners; it’s a spread business, revenue is the CPA fee clients pay, cost of sales is what Macbee pays publishers to generate the conversion.</li><li>The stock sits near a two-year low after guiding for 9% profit growth in June 2025, cutting that to a 27% decline six months later, then missing even the reduced number in June 2026.</li></ul>

Macbee Planet is a Tokyo-listed “LTV marketing” company that runs performance-fee digital-advertising campaigns for Japanese corporate clients, mostly in financial services, beauty, staffing and medical, buying affiliate and programmatic media on their behalf and earning a cost-per-acquisition fee.A proprietary analytics platform, “Honeycomb,” allocates spend across dozens of media partners; it’s a spread business, revenue is the CPA fee clients pay, cost of sales is what Macbee pays publishers to generate the conversion.The stock sits near a two-year low after guiding for 9% profit growth in June 2025, cutting that to a 27% decline six months later, then missing even the reduced number in June 2026.

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "<strong>Who is Ready</strong>" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>In the last few days, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunwels-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43702:1" rel="noopener">SUNWELS Co (9229 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macbee-planet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39863:1" rel="noopener">Macbee Planet (7095 JP)</a> have announced their moves to TSE prime which would eventually trigger a TOPIX Inclusion event.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macbee-planet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39863:1" rel="noopener">Macbee Planet</a> was in our highest conviction list but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunwels-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43702:1" rel="noopener">SUNWELS Co</a> was not. In this insight, we have made some modifications to our methodology to improve future hit rates.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
In the last few days, SUNWELS Co (9229 JP) and Macbee Planet (7095 JP) have announced their moves to TSE prime which would eventually trigger a TOPIX Inclusion event.

Macbee Planet was in our highest conviction list but SUNWELS Co was not. In this insight, we have made some modifications to our methodology to improve future hit rates.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (July 2024)

<ul><li>Earnings look to have bottomed – FY4/26 saw Macbee Planet significantly impacted by adverse conditions experienced by major clients in the Finance and Wellness sectors, as well as an increase in personnel and advertising costs that resulted in negative earnings growth YoY.</li><li>However, quarterly trends indicate that both a slowdown in sales declines YoY and an OPM recovery were underway from Q3 FY4/26.</li><li>With challenging conditions set to continue for major clients and a focus on business investment, FY4/27 guidance still indicates a YoY earnings decline. </li></ul>

Earnings look to have bottomed – FY4/26 saw Macbee Planet significantly impacted by adverse conditions experienced by major clients in the Finance and Wellness sectors, as well as an increase in personnel and advertising costs that resulted in negative earnings growth YoY.However, quarterly trends indicate that both a slowdown in sales declines YoY and an OPM recovery were underway from Q3 FY4/26.With challenging conditions set to continue for major clients and a focus on business investment, FY4/27 guidance still indicates a YoY earnings decline. 

Macbee Planet (7095 JP) - Earnings Are Nearing a Bottom

<ul><li>Signs of earnings stabilisation – The key takeaway from Q1-3 FY4/26 results is that Macbee Planet experienced an improvement in earnings momentum, driven by a recovery trend in the investment and lending &amp; card sectors in Q3 FY4/26.</li><li>The company has also diversified its revenue base through new customer acquisitions and sector exposure.</li><li>With FY4/26 guidance unchanged, this points to further stabilization as the company proactively manages SG&amp;A costs – recruitment costs will be lowered by greater utilization of AI, and advertising spend is being reduced from H1 FY4/26.</li></ul>

Signs of earnings stabilisation – The key takeaway from Q1-3 FY4/26 results is that Macbee Planet experienced an improvement in earnings momentum, driven by a recovery trend in the investment and lending &amp; card sectors in Q3 FY4/26.The company has also diversified its revenue base through new customer acquisitions and sector exposure.With FY4/26 guidance unchanged, this points to further stabilization as the company proactively manages SG&amp;A costs – recruitment costs will be lowered by greater utilization of AI, and advertising spend is being reduced from H1 FY4/26.

Macbee Planet (7095 JP) - Approaching an Inflection Point

Japan

MacbeePlanet,Inc. provides marketing data analysis services. The Company offers consumer inflow paths and behavior patterns data analysis, consumer behavior machine learning, and analytics consulting services. MacbeePlanet serves clients across Japan.

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Macbee Planet (7095 JP)