Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On Friday 17 January, the closing date of the CVC Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)</a> at ¥1,150/share, the bidder announced an extension of the Tender Offer.</li>
<li>They also announced a bump to ¥1,250/share, and that included a comment saying they resolved not to raise the price further. </li>
<li>This happened during market hours, and the price jumped to just below ¥1,250/share. But one should not consider this a done deal. For reasons...</li>
</ul>


On Friday 17 January, the closing date of the CVC Tender Offer for Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) at ¥1,150/share, the bidder announced an extension of the Tender Offer.
They also announced a bump to ¥1,250/share, and that included a comment saying they resolved not to raise the price further. 
This happened during market hours, and the price jumped to just below ¥1,250/share. But one should not consider this a done deal. For reasons...


CVC Bumps the Macromill (3978) Price, Declares Final, and That's That... Or Is It?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)</a> disclosed a revised tender offer from CVC at JPY1,250, an 8.7% premium to the previous JPY1,150 offer. The offer has been declared final.</li>
<li>The revised offer is reasonable compared to historical trading ranges. Since the announcement of the offer, the share price has never exceeded it.</li>
<li>CVC seeks an irrevocable from Oasis, but Oasis has several reasons to ignore the overtures. Due to the high required acceptance rate, a gross spread of 0.2% is unattractive. </li>
</ul>



Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) disclosed a revised tender offer from CVC at JPY1,250, an 8.7% premium to the previous JPY1,150 offer. The offer has been declared final.
The revised offer is reasonable compared to historical trading ranges. Since the announcement of the offer, the share price has never exceeded it.
CVC seeks an irrevocable from Oasis, but Oasis has several reasons to ignore the overtures. Due to the high required acceptance rate, a gross spread of 0.2% is unattractive. 


Macromill (3978 JP): CVC Bumps to JPY1,250, but the Offer Remains Light

<ul>
<li>Three pre-existing Large Shareholders have not sold down. Two new 5+% shareholders have appeared since Tender Launch. Together, their reports give them 51.7% of shares out.</li>
<li>That provides them with a significantly strong implied negotiating hand. Given the midpoint of the Target Company's Advisor's DCF Range, I expect a bump. </li>
<li>Today the Bidder extended for 10 more days. They didn't have the shares to close. I expect they won't unless they bump a lot. </li>
</ul>


Three pre-existing Large Shareholders have not sold down. Two new 5+% shareholders have appeared since Tender Launch. Together, their reports give them 51.7% of shares out.
That provides them with a significantly strong implied negotiating hand. Given the midpoint of the Target Company's Advisor's DCF Range, I expect a bump. 
Today the Bidder extended for 10 more days. They didn't have the shares to close. I expect they won't unless they bump a lot. 


Macromill (3978 JP) - Five Major Investors Have 50+%; CVC Extends and Will Need to Bump Or Walk

<ul>
<li>On 26 December, CVC extended its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc. (3978 JP)</a> offer period by 10 business days to 17 January. The offer price remained unchanged, but it was not declared final.</li>
<li>The extension is unsurprising as the shares have traded above terms for 30 out of 32 trading days. The emergence of Oasis as the largest shareholder is an added complication. </li>
<li>Lowering the minimum acceptance condition is not a viable option. A bump is increasingly likely. Trading patterns suggest a minimum required revised offer of around JPY1,200.</li>
</ul>


On 26 December, CVC extended its Macromill, Inc. (3978 JP) offer period by 10 business days to 17 January. The offer price remained unchanged, but it was not declared final.
The extension is unsurprising as the shares have traded above terms for 30 out of 32 trading days. The emergence of Oasis as the largest shareholder is an added complication. 
Lowering the minimum acceptance condition is not a viable option. A bump is increasingly likely. Trading patterns suggest a minimum required revised offer of around JPY1,200.


Macromill (3978 JP): CVC Bumping Its Offer Is Inevitable

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)</a> has recommended CVC’s tender offer at JPY1,150, a 40.1% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>While the offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, it is 41% below the IPO price and 11% below the midpoint IFA DCF valuation range. </li>
<li>The lack of an irrevocable, open shareholder register and large foreign institutions' shareholding increases the odds of activism to force a bump.  </li>
</ul>



Macromill, Inc (3978 JP) has recommended CVC’s tender offer at JPY1,150, a 40.1% premium to the last close.
While the offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, it is 41% below the IPO price and 11% below the midpoint IFA DCF valuation range. 
The lack of an irrevocable, open shareholder register and large foreign institutions' shareholding increases the odds of activism to force a bump.  


Macromill (3978 JP): CVC’s Light Tender Offer at JPY1,150 Begs for Activism

Japan

MACROMILL, INC. is a market research company utilizing Internet System. The Company collects and analyzes data and prepares research reports. MACROMILL also provides digital marketing solutions.

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Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)

CVC Bumps the Macromill (3978) Price, Declares Final, and That's That... Or Is It?

CVC has upped its bid for Macromill, now 50+% owned by 5-7 investors. It is not a big bump. I tend to think it is not enough. The deal may break...

Travis Lundy

Macromill (3978 JP): CVC Bumps to JPY1,250, but the Offer Remains Light

CVC seeks an irrevocable from Oasis, but Oasis has several reasons to ignore the overtures. Due to the high required acceptance rate, a gross...

Arun George

Macromill (3978 JP) - Five Major Investors Have 50+%; CVC Extends and Will Need to Bump Or Walk

Today is the last trading day for anyone to buy and tender into the Macromill Tender Offer which is 5% below the current price. The stock hasn't...

Travis Lundy

Macromill (3978 JP): CVC Bumping Its Offer Is Inevitable

On 26 December, CVC extended its Macromill offer period to 17 January. A bump is increasingly likely. Trading patterns suggest a minimum required...

Arun George

Macromill (3978 JP): CVC’s Light Tender Offer at JPY1,150 Begs for Activism

Oasis has become a substantial shareholder with a 2.9m or 7.42% ownership ratio. Oasis has bought several times over terms – the highest price paid...

Arun George

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