Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Large pharma’s bounce from the mostly ineffective Most- Favored-Nation (MFN) executive order was short-lived, as new CMS draft guidance for Medicare price negotiations threatened certain drug combos.</li><li>President Trump’s MFN executive order lacked a clear plan to lower drug prices, with any immediate moves likely facing legal challenges.</li><li>Listen to the WTR Biotech Flashcast for our MFN take.</li></ul>

Large pharma’s bounce from the mostly ineffective Most- Favored-Nation (MFN) executive order was short-lived, as new CMS draft guidance for Medicare price negotiations threatened certain drug combos.President Trump’s MFN executive order lacked a clear plan to lower drug prices, with any immediate moves likely facing legal challenges.Listen to the WTR Biotech Flashcast for our MFN take.

Biopharma Week in Review MFN Fears Overdone but Medicare Negotiation Changes Reapplied Pressure

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Semiconductors (SMH,SOXX,NVDA,AVGO) have been leadership since late-2022, but they're extended and starting to see profit taking as market participants rotate into other laggard areas of the market (especially Energy).</li>
<li>The question is whether this new trend lasts a few days, or if this is the start of longer-term trend.</li>
<li>If there will be any lasting rotation away from Technology/semiconductors, SPX and QQQ would need to break strong short-term supports at 5370-5380 and $468-469, respectively. Until then, Tech/semis remain leadership</li>
</ul>


Semiconductors (SMH,SOXX,NVDA,AVGO) have been leadership since late-2022, but they're extended and starting to see profit taking as market participants rotate into other laggard areas of the market (especially Energy).
The question is whether this new trend lasts a few days, or if this is the start of longer-term trend.
If there will be any lasting rotation away from Technology/semiconductors, SPX and QQQ would need to break strong short-term supports at 5370-5380 and $468-469, respectively. Until then, Tech/semis remain leadership


Rotation Is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Still Bullish; Supports at SPX 5370-5380, QQQ $468-469

<p>Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the “wait-and-see” phase). Until this consolidation period resolves below support or above resistance we are maintaining a relatively neutral stance considering the wide range of outcomes. Many major indexes are testing logical resistance and until we see breakouts it is hard to get too bullish. In this report we highlight attractive stocks from a RS perspective.</p>

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the “wait-and-see” phase). Until this consolidation period resolves below support or above resistance we are maintaining a relatively neutral stance considering the wide range of outcomes. Many major indexes are testing logical resistance and until we see breakouts it is hard to get too bullish. In this report we highlight attractive stocks from a RS perspective.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Round Trip Back To Resistance

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Suzhou Ribo Life Science / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzhou-ribo-life-science-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45112:1" rel="noopener">Suzhou Ribo Life Science (SRL HK)</a> entered into a licensing agreement with Madrigal Pharmaceuticals for six pre-clinical small interfering RNA (siRNA) programs for the treatment of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH).</li>
<li>Ribo Life will receive an upfront payment of US$60M and cumulative payments could reach US$4.4B if certain development, regulatory and commercial milestones are achieved, plus potential royalties on net sales.</li>
<li>The deal has the potential to bear fruits for Ribo Life only in the long term. At the current share price, the stock does feel overvalued to an extent.</li>
</ul>



Suzhou Ribo Life Science (SRL HK) entered into a licensing agreement with Madrigal Pharmaceuticals for six pre-clinical small interfering RNA (siRNA) programs for the treatment of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH).
Ribo Life will receive an upfront payment of US$60M and cumulative payments could reach US$4.4B if certain development, regulatory and commercial milestones are achieved, plus potential royalties on net sales.
The deal has the potential to bear fruits for Ribo Life only in the long term. At the current share price, the stock does feel overvalued to an extent.


Ribo Life Science (6938 HK): Madrigal MASH Deal A Positive, But Still a Long Waiting Game

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cspc-pharmaceutical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:229:1" rel="noopener">CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK)</a> 1H25 revenue dropped 18.5% YoY as finished drugs witnessed decrease on VBP and NRDL inclusion. Bulk products and license fees compensated to an extent.</li>
<li>More license and collaboration in relation to the development, manufacturing and commercialization of certain products of the company awaited in 2H25 and augurs well in terms of future revenue visibility.</li>
<li>CSPC Pharmaceutical aims to expand into the high-end market to achieve competitive differentiation and thereby command higher prices.</li>
</ul>



CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK) 1H25 revenue dropped 18.5% YoY as finished drugs witnessed decrease on VBP and NRDL inclusion. Bulk products and license fees compensated to an extent.
More license and collaboration in relation to the development, manufacturing and commercialization of certain products of the company awaited in 2H25 and augurs well in terms of future revenue visibility.
CSPC Pharmaceutical aims to expand into the high-end market to achieve competitive differentiation and thereby command higher prices.


CSPC Pharma (1093 HK): Finished Drugs Drag 1H25; 2H25 Expected To End with More Licensing Deals

United States

Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company develops novel and small-molecule drugs addressing cardiovascular and metabolic diseases. Madrigal Pharmaceuticals offers its services in the United States.

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Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc (MDGL US)

Biopharma Week in Review MFN Fears Overdone but Medicare Negotiation Changes Reapplied Pressure

President Trump’s MFN executive order lacked a clear plan to lower drug prices, with any immediate moves likely facing legal challenges.

Water Tower Research

Rotation Is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Still Bullish; Supports at SPX 5370-5380, QQQ $468-469

Rotation is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Bullish Outlook Intact; Expecting Short-term Support at $SPX 5370-5380 and $QQQ $468-469 (20-day MAs...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Round Trip Back To Resistance

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the...

Vermilion Research

Ribo Life Science (6938 HK): Madrigal MASH Deal A Positive, But Still a Long Waiting Game

Suzhou Ribo Life Science partners with Madrigal Pharmaceuticals for siRNA programs targeting MASH. Upfront payments etc are fine, but Ribo Life is...

Tina Banerjee

CSPC Pharma (1093 HK): Finished Drugs Drag 1H25; 2H25 Expected To End with More Licensing Deals

CSPC Pharma's 1H25 revenue dropped 18.5% YoY, on lower finished drug sales. However, future revenue visibility looks promising with upcoming...

Tina Banerjee

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Biopharma Week in Review MFN Fears Overdone but Medicare Negotiation Changes Reapplied Pressure

President Trump’s MFN executive order lacked a clear plan to lower drug prices, with any immediate moves likely facing legal challenges.

Water Tower Research

Rotation Is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Still Bullish; Supports at SPX 5370-5380, QQQ $468-469

Rotation is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Bullish Outlook Intact; Expecting Short-term Support at $SPX 5370-5380 and $QQQ $468-469 (20-day MAs...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Round Trip Back To Resistance

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the...

Vermilion Research

Ribo Life Science (6938 HK): Madrigal MASH Deal A Positive, But Still a Long Waiting Game

​Suzhou Ribo Life Science partners with Madrigal Pharmaceuticals for siRNA programs targeting MASH. Upfront payments etc are fine, but Ribo Life is...

Tina Banerjee

CSPC Pharma (1093 HK): Finished Drugs Drag 1H25; 2H25 Expected To End with More Licensing Deals

​CSPC Pharma's 1H25 revenue dropped 18.5% YoY, on lower finished drug sales. However, future revenue visibility looks promising with upcoming...

Tina Banerjee

Suzhou Ribo Life Science partners with Madrigal Pharmaceuticals for siRNA programs targeting MASH. Upfront payments etc are fine, but Ribo Life is...

CSPC Pharma's 1H25 revenue dropped 18.5% YoY, on lower finished drug sales. However, future revenue visibility looks promising with upcoming...