Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a> today released a change to its Target Opinion Statement for Infroneer's takeover bid at ¥770/share. It supports the tender itself, but withdraws its recommendation investors tender.</li>
<li>Infroneer refused to raise their price, so this effectively kills their bid (though they will extend). TC will engage with Yamauchi Family Office which has separately offered to bid ¥1,000/share.</li>
<li>The dynamics have now changed. This is a range trade, and will likely take time unless Infroneer says "I'll sell at ¥1,000/share."</li>
</ul>



Toyo Construction (1890 JP) today released a change to its Target Opinion Statement for Infroneer's takeover bid at ¥770/share. It supports the tender itself, but withdraws its recommendation investors tender.
Infroneer refused to raise their price, so this effectively kills their bid (though they will extend). TC will engage with Yamauchi Family Office which has separately offered to bid ¥1,000/share.
The dynamics have now changed. This is a range trade, and will likely take time unless Infroneer says "I'll sell at ¥1,000/share."


ToyoKen (1890)- Infroneer Declines to Bid Up, YFO Now In Driver's Seat - Now It's A Range Trade

<ul>
<li>A Nikkei article this morning says the mystery bidder behind WK1/2/3 Limited is Nintendo founding family's Yamauchi No.10 Family Office. This changes things more than just knowing their identity does.</li>
<li>To start, their website is the most fun investment management company website I have come across. It's great.  <a href="https://y-n10.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://y-n10.com/</a>. It's also well worth reading. It's also worth noting their history.</li>
<li>Understanding the parameters here is key to understanding possible next steps.</li>
</ul>


A Nikkei article this morning says the mystery bidder behind WK1/2/3 Limited is Nintendo founding family's Yamauchi No.10 Family Office. This changes things more than just knowing their identity does.
To start, their website is the most fun investment management company website I have come across. It's great.  https://y-n10.com/. It's also well worth reading. It's also worth noting their history.
Understanding the parameters here is key to understanding possible next steps.


ToyoKen (1890) Mystery Bidder Is Yamauchi No. 10 Family Office - And That Changes Things

<p>An <a href="https://diamond.jp/articles/-/281267" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> in Diamond Online late Monday after the close suggested that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eneos-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:638:1" rel="noopener">ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP)</a>, which is a 57%+ owner of road works and contractor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2583:1" rel="noopener">Nippo Corp (1881 JP)</a> would set up a Special Purpose Corporation, perhaps with the help of Goldman Sachs, and would bid for the rest of its subsidiary. It would then sell its current stake in the company back to the company. </p><p>Late last night the two companies said that they were not the source of the article and that their boards would meet on 7 September to discuss. The stock traded limit up at ¥4215 today. I thought that would have been a great place to be long for a takeout. </p><p>But after the close, ENEOS and Nippo <a href="https://www.nippo-c.co.jp/ir/kessan_pdf/2021_0907_3.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a transaction where a slightly convoluted org chart of entities will do just that - try to buy out minorities of Nippo - but at ¥4,000/share. </p><p>The Tender Offer is likely to start between mid-October and mid-November, but in the meantime, Nippo has come out to support the Tender Offer and we have all the supporting documentation. </p><p>Other than today's limit up price, ¥4,000/share is a lifetime high as far as I know. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/228/336/original/Screenshot+2021-09-07+at+5.02.37+PM.png?1631005799" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="228336"></figure></section><div class="content-highlight">
<p><strong>Given the capital construct, I could imagine some shareholders could get upset at this valuation.</strong> It looks underpriced to me. You can think of it the following way:</p>
<ul>
<li>ENEOS currently owns 57% of Nippo. </li>
<li>Some combination of ENEOS and Goldman Sachs are going to spend ¥200bn and small change to buy out minorities (the 43% ENEOS doesn't own). It will be financed by non-recourse loans. ENEOS will have control. </li>
<li>Then ENEOS will sell its currently-owned 57% back to the company.</li>
</ul>
<p>To recap... if we imagine ENEOS was the sole buyer, this transaction allows ENEOS to gain 100% of the shares, take out a net $600mm in cash, and own the equity free and clear at 8x ex-cash and securities PER. </p>
<p><em><strong>Just phrasing it that way tells you it is probably being done too cheaply. </strong></em></p>
</div><p>The company has seen its share of scandals over the years which has left both it and <em>all</em> the road building companies (which have also shared these scandals) at low valuations. They were so low that the parents of Obayashi Road and Maeda Road saw fit to buy out the minorities of their subsidiaries (Obayashi in 2017, discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/obayashi-road-another-in-a-string-of-underpriced-takeovers-by-a-japanese-parent" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:10608" rel="noopener">Obayashi Road: Another in a String of Underpriced Takeovers by a Japanese Parent</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maeda-road-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2168:1" rel="noopener">Maeda Road Construction Co (1883 JP)</a> last year in a whole series of insights around the hostile takeover of the majority then the second squeezeout merger, so historical trading price is logically of less import when determining "fair value".</p><div class="content-remarks">
<p>I'd note that the usual construct that companies use to "prove" that their bid is adequate, or prove that their bidder's bid is "not detrimental to minority interests" is to use a mixture of recent stock price, recent peers' stock prices and multiples, and a DCF, which is often dodgily mashed together to create a number which the two parties have otherwise agreed upon behind the scenes. There is rarely any common sense involved. Non-operating rental real estate portfolios, cash, equity, and bond portfolios are sometimes valued to a discount rate of 10%, and sharp changes in forecasts and cash holdings are ignored. </p>
<p>In addition, despite the METI Fair M&amp;A Guidelines introduced in June 2019 which suggest in situations where there is a parent or founder family taking over a company that there should be a majority of minority condition, a full independent committee, a fairness opinion, and abundant care taken to treat minority investors appropriately given the inherent information asymmetry and conflict of interest, we rarely get those, and the extent to which a "control premium" is assessed is whether or not it ends up being a premium to recent traded price, which could be low precisely because investors have come to expect suspect governance from the company due to its status as a listed "child" company beholden to its parent.</p>
</div><p>However while the largest non-ENEOS holder <em>appears</em> to be sometimes-activist Silchester International, because they reported a 7+% position on 25 September 2020 and have not reported a subsequent position (which they would have had to do had they changed their position by more than 1% of shares outstanding), it is to note that their <a href="https://disclosure.edinet-fsa.go.jp/E01EW/download?uji.verb=W0EZA104CXP001003Action&amp;uji.bean=ee.bean.parent.EECommonSearchBean&amp;PID=W1E63011&amp;SESSIONKEY=1630999744307&amp;lgKbn=2&amp;pkbn=0&amp;skbn=1&amp;dskb=&amp;askb=&amp;dflg=0&amp;iflg=&amp;preId=1&amp;mul=1881&amp;lpr=on&amp;cal=1&amp;era=R&amp;yer=&amp;mon=&amp;pfs=4&amp;row=100&amp;idx=0&amp;str=&amp;kbn=1&amp;flg=&amp;syoruiKanriNo=&amp;s=S100JR3W" target="_blank" rel="noopener">last report last year</a> was to <em>sell</em> 1% of the company at prices between mid ¥2700s and high ¥2900s from July to September. </p><p>There is some time between now and the start of the Tender Offer, which means there will be time for people to decide what they think. </p><p>To help with the process, I offer some details and brief valuation notes below.</p>

An article in Diamond Online late Monday after the close suggested that ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), which is a 57%+ owner of road works and contractor Nippo Corp (1881 JP) would set up a Special Purpose Corporation, perhaps with the help of Goldman Sachs, and would bid for the rest of its subsidiary. It would then sell its current stake in the company back to the company. Late last night the two companies said that they were not the source of the article and that their boards would meet on 7 September to discuss. The stock traded limit up at ¥4215 today. I thought that would have been a great place to be long for a takeout. But after the close, ENEOS and Nippo announced a transaction where a slightly convoluted org chart of entities will do just that - try to buy out minorities of Nippo - but at ¥4,000/share. The Tender Offer is likely to start between mid-October and mid-November, but in the meantime, Nippo has come out to support the Tender Offer and we have all the supporting documentation. Other than today's limit up price, ¥4,000/share is a lifetime high as far as I know. 
Given the capital construct, I could imagine some shareholders could get upset at this valuation. It looks underpriced to me. You can think of it the following way:

ENEOS currently owns 57% of Nippo. 
Some combination of ENEOS and Goldman Sachs are going to spend ¥200bn and small change to buy out minorities (the 43% ENEOS doesn't own). It will be financed by non-recourse loans. ENEOS will have control. 
Then ENEOS will sell its currently-owned 57% back to the company.

To recap... if we imagine ENEOS was the sole buyer, this transaction allows ENEOS to gain 100% of the shares, take out a net $600mm in cash, and own the equity free and clear at 8x ex-cash and securities PER. 
Just phrasing it that way tells you it is probably being done too cheaply. 
The company has seen its share of scandals over the years which has left both it and all the road building companies (which have also shared these scandals) at low valuations. They were so low that the parents of Obayashi Road and Maeda Road saw fit to buy out the minorities of their subsidiaries (Obayashi in 2017, discussed in Obayashi Road: Another in a String of Underpriced Takeovers by a Japanese Parent and Maeda Road Construction Co (1883 JP) last year in a whole series of insights around the hostile takeover of the majority then the second squeezeout merger, so historical trading price is logically of less import when determining "fair value".
I'd note that the usual construct that companies use to "prove" that their bid is adequate, or prove that their bidder's bid is "not detrimental to minority interests" is to use a mixture of recent stock price, recent peers' stock prices and multiples, and a DCF, which is often dodgily mashed together to create a number which the two parties have otherwise agreed upon behind the scenes. There is rarely any common sense involved. Non-operating rental real estate portfolios, cash, equity, and bond portfolios are sometimes valued to a discount rate of 10%, and sharp changes in forecasts and cash holdings are ignored. 
In addition, despite the METI Fair M&amp;A Guidelines introduced in June 2019 which suggest in situations where there is a parent or founder family taking over a company that there should be a majority of minority condition, a full independent committee, a fairness opinion, and abundant care taken to treat minority investors appropriately given the inherent information asymmetry and conflict of interest, we rarely get those, and the extent to which a "control premium" is assessed is whether or not it ends up being a premium to recent traded price, which could be low precisely because investors have come to expect suspect governance from the company due to its status as a listed "child" company beholden to its parent.
However while the largest non-ENEOS holder appears to be sometimes-activist Silchester International, because they reported a 7+% position on 25 September 2020 and have not reported a subsequent position (which they would have had to do had they changed their position by more than 1% of shares outstanding), it is to note that their last report last year was to sell 1% of the company at prices between mid ¥2700s and high ¥2900s from July to September. There is some time between now and the start of the Tender Offer, which means there will be time for people to decide what they think. To help with the process, I offer some details and brief valuation notes below.

ENEOS To Steamroll Nippo (1881 JP) Minorities

David Blennerhassett


For the month of February, 20 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$31bn.


Clicking on the company name in the table below will take you to the entity page where you can read the initial insight(s) written by Smartkarma contributors on these new deals and follow-up discussions, or simply click on the insight link(s) below the name.






New Deals


Industry


Size (US$bn)


Type


Premium




Australia




Vocus Communications (VOC AU) 
Telcos
2.6
Scheme
25.6%


Vocus Back In Focus As MIRA Takes A Turn








Hong Kong




Beijing Digital Telecom (6188 HK) 
Mobile devices
0.2
Possible MGO
7.0%


Beijing Digital (6188 HK): Possible Offer From Zhuhai SASAC



Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) 
Logistics
2.2
Partial
11.22%


Kerry Logistics (636 HK): SF Holdings' Pre-Conditional Partial Offer



Sichuan Languang Justbon (2606 HK) 
Property services
0.7
MOU/Poss Offer
30%


Languang Justbon (2606 HK): Potential General Offer From Country Gardens






India








National Aluminium (NACL IN) 
Aluminium
0.1
Buyback Tender
30%


NALCO India Buyback Tender Offer: A Small Arb








Japan




Being Co Ltd (4734 JP) 
Software
0.1
Tender Offer
34.7%


MBO for Being Co (4734 JP): Tender Offer Is a Done Deal



Dynac Holdings Corporation (2675 JP) 
Restaurants
0.1
Tender Offer
11.5%


Dynac Corp (2675 JP) Tender Offer: Looks like a Done Deal



Japan Asia (3751 JP) 
Infrastructure
0.3
Tender Offer
1%


Japan Asia Group MBO Fails, Now JAG Against Murakami's Higher Bid 



Maeda Corp (1824 JP) &amp; Maeda Road Construction Co (1883 JP) &amp; Maeda Seisakusho (6281 JP) 
Construction
4.0
Merger
14% for Maeda Road


Maeda Corp/Road/Seisakusho - 3-Way Merger 1 Year After Hostile Takeover 



N Field Co Ltd (6077 JP) 
Nursing care
0.2
Tender Offer
42.2%


N Field (6077) Take-Private by Unison Capital - Fast Growth Long Runway Asset Going Not So Rich



Sakai Ovex (3408 JP) 
Textiles
0.2
Tender Offer
31.7%


Sakai Ovex MBO - Wrong Price (And the Bidder Knows It)



Sanken Electric (6707 JP) 
Semis
0.2
Partial Tender
17.1%


Effissimo Launches Unsolicited/Hostile Partial Tender On Sanken Electric



Tsukui Corp (2398 JP) 
Nursing care
0.5
Tender Offer
51.7%


Tsukui Holdings (2398) - Another CHEAP Japan Nursing Care Take-Private Deal



Unimat Retirement Community (9707 JP) 

Nursing care
0.1
Tender Offer
28.4%


MBO for Unimat (9707 JP): Deserves a Bump!


 



Europe








Aggreko PLC (AGK LN) 
Energy
3.2
Offer
39%


Aggreko: £2bn Potential Bid from PE Consortium



Arrow Global (ARW LN) 
Debt purchaser
0.8
Offer
36.2%


Arrow Global - TDR Capital: Preliminary Conditional Proposal



ASTM SpA (AT IM) 
Infrastructure
4.0
Offer
28.8%


ASTM SpA - Nuova Argo Finanziaria Takeout Offer, Trading Tight



Dialog Semiconductor (DLG GR) 
Semi
6.0
Offer
20.3%


Dialog Semiconductor - Renesas Electronics Recommended Cash Offer



Signature Aviation (SIG LN) 
Aviation services
4.7
Scheme
53%


Signature Aviation - PE Consortium Agreed Offer








US




Hollysys Automation Technolo (HOLI US) 
Automation
1.0
Offer
36.7%


Hollysys (HOLI US): Machine Earning


Source: Smartkarma Insights





The above does not include the possible deal for Brilliance China Automotive (1114 HK) (Brilliance China (1114 HK): Grilling Kidneys). 

The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in February was ~27.5%, with a year-to-date average of ~31%. This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2020 and 2019 of 31% and 31.5% respectively. 




Summary of News in February of Arb Situations On Smartkarma's Radar



(Again, click on the company names to take to you to the insights and/or discussion posts for a more comprehensive read-through on each situation. Where a new insight was written on these names in July, I've included a link, in bold, to that insight in italics.)






Australia


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




3P Learning (3PL AU) 

22-Feb: 1H21 results




amaysim Australia (AYS AU) 

1-Feb: WAM Capital Ltd (WAM AU) Offer for amaysim Australia (AYS AU) is free of all defeating conditions. Here is the Bidder's Statement. Offer closes on the 30 March - unless extended. 




Asaleo Care Ltd (AHY AU) 

18-Feb: Asaleo (ASX: AHY): Essity's Revised Offer




Bingo Industries (BIN AU) 

22-Feb: 1H21 results




Coca Cola Amatil (CCL AU) 

16-Feb: Coca Cola Amatil: CCEP's Best &amp; Final Offer
17-Feb: Coca-Cola Amatil Takeover Offer Raised 5.9%, Seems Like a Done Deal




Think Childcare (TNK AU) 

20-Jan: Think Childcare (TNK AU): Bigger Bid by Busy Bees




Vitalharvest Freehold Trust (VTH AU) 

26-Feb: Non-binding Offer from ROC of A$1.08/share by way of a Scheme.




WPP AUNZ (WPP AU) 

25-Feb: FY20 results










Hong Kong


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy (579 HK) 

22-Feb: Beijing Jingneng (579 HK): Low Voter Turn-Out Sees Spread Widening




Car Inc (699 HK) 

18-Feb: Car Inc (699 HK)'s Offer unconditional in all respects. Offeror (MBK) holds 52.11%. Offer closes on the 4 March.




China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK) 

No February update




China Machinery Engineering (1829 HK) 

3-Feb: Despatch of Composite Doc pushed out to 20 Jan 2022.




HKC Holdings (190 HK) 

5-Feb: Despatch of Scheme Doc pushed out to 30 April this year.




Huifu Payment Limited (1806 HK) 

19-Feb: Shareholders approved the Scheme at Huifu Payment Limited (1806 HK)'s Scheme Meeting. Cheques to be despatched on or before 8 April.




I.T Ltd (999 HK) 

19-Feb: Court to convene a meeting on the 4 March.




New Century REIT (1275 HK) 

17-Feb: Circular for New Century REIT (1275 HK) has been delayed until the 19 March - on or before. 




Polytec Asset Holdings (208 HK) 

11-Feb: As expected, Polytec Asset Holdings (208 HK) has extended the despatch of the Scheme Doc to 16 April.




Rivera Holdings (281 HK) 

5-Feb: Rivera Holdings (281 HK) Scheme Doc pushed way out to 7 June as the High Court has directed that the hearing of the originating summons for an order to issue its directions for convening the Court Meeting will only be held on 28 May 2021




SHK Hong Kong Industries (666 HK) 

11-Feb: SHK (666 HK): Scheme Doc Out, IFA Says Fair




China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) 

No February update




Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management Group (1158 HK) 

5-Feb: The pre-conditions for Zhejiang New Century Hotel Management Group (1158 HK) have been satisfied. Composite Doc to be despatched on ore before the 31 March, about a week earlier than my prior estimate. 




Zhuhai Holdings Investment (908 HK) 

11-Feb: As expected, the despatch of the Scheme Doc for Zhuhai Holdings Investment (908 HK) has been pushed back to the 21 April.










India


Comments (with links to insights)




Allcargo Logistics (AGLL IN) 

No February update




Engineers India (ENGR IN) 

No February update




INEOS Styrolution India Limited (INEOS IN) 

No February update




Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) 

19-Feb: Vedanta Soars Beyond Indicative Open Offer Level. Not Expensive










Japan


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) 
2-Feb: Cocokara/​MatsuKiyo Deal Finally Coming?




Honshu Chemical Industry (4115 JP) 

14-Feb: Honshu Chemical - What WAS the Wrong Price Gets Wronger




Japan Asia (3751 JP) 

4-Feb: Overbid: JAG Special Committee Plays Stupid so Murakami Plays Hardball
20-Feb: Japan Asia Group MBO Fails, Now JAG Against Murakami's Higher Bid




Joban Kaihatsu (1782 JP) 

Tender Offer was successful.




Toa Oil Co Ltd (5008 JP) 

12-Feb: Toa Oil (5008) Tender - Has the Dog Caught the Car?
17-Feb: Toa Oil (5008) - The Dog Has Caught the Car, But Beware Mangalores 25 Feb: Toa Oil (5008) - Idemitsu Looking To The Next Attempt?




Tokyo Rope Mfg (5981 JP) 

3-Feb: Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP) replied to questions posed to it by Tokyo Rope Mfg (5981 JP) in the latter's Opinion Statement regarding NSC's tender offer.  It is quite clear, and quite non-combative, relatively speaking. 











Malaysia


Comments (with links to announcements)




Batu Kawan Bhd (BAK MK) 

5-Feb: Compulsory acquisition notice sent out




FGV Holdings Bhd (FGV MK) 

16-Feb: Offer extended until the 2 March 25-Feb: Offer extended until the 15 March












New Zealand


Comments (with links announcements)




Infratil Ltd (IFT NZ) 

4-Feb: Lots of interest in Tilt Renewables Ltd (TLT NZ) 












Philippines


Comments (with links announcements)




Lopez Holdings (LPZ PM) 

17-Feb:  There's been an amendment to the partial offer for Lopez Holdings (LPZ PM). The maximum to be acquired will now be 1.43bn shares or 31.5%.   
"the reduction is intended to address concerns and the risk that LPZ may still fall below the public ownership requirement despite the initial reduced maximum number of shares to be acquired."  The Tender Offer price remains at P3.85 per share. The Tender Offer period will be extended from February 19, 2021, to March 8, 2021.











Singapore


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




CEI Limited (CEI SP) 

15-Feb: Pre-cons met. Offer doc to be sent 14-21 from this date.
15-Feb: AEM's Privatization Deal for CEI Limited (CEI SP): Pre-Condition Satisfied




GL Ltd (GLL SP) 

4-Feb: Offer Doc for GL Ltd (GLL SP) is out. The Circular, which will include an IFA opinion, is expected to be despatched on or before the 18 Feb. 
18-Feb: The Circular is out for GL Ltd (GLL SP). The IFA says the Offer is not fair but reasonable.




Penguin International (PBS SP) 

24-Feb: Penguin International (PBS SP)'s Circular is out - independent directors and IFA recommend shareholders accept Emet Grace offer.




Soilbuild Business Space REIT (SBREIT SP) 

18-Feb: Soilbuild REIT: Scheme Doc Out. EGM Convened










Taiwan


Comments (with links to announcements &amp; insights)




Jih Sun Financial (5820 TT) 

24-Feb: The Taiwan Fair Trade Commission has "approved" the takeover of Jih Sun Financial (5820 TT) by Fubon Financial Holding Co (2881 TT). This is a little earlier than expected. Fubon Financial Deal for Jih Sun Gets TFTC Signoff





















North America


Comments (with links to announcements and insights)





51 Job Inc Adr (JOBS US) 

No February update




China Biologic Products (CBPO US) 

China Biologic calls EGM on 1 March to consider proposed take-private



HUYA Inc (HUYA US)
No February update



PNM Resources (PNM US) 
12-Feb: PNM Resources shareholders supported the integration with Avangrid, Iberdrola's US subsidiary. The approval represents another milestone in the integration process between the New Mexico and Texas power company and the Iberdrola group company.
The operation, which already has the approval of the Committee on Foreign Investments in the United States (CFIUS) and Hart Scott Rodino Clearance (HSR), expects to obtain all the necessary approvals at both the state and federal levels throughout 2021.




Sina Corp (Class A) (SINA US) 

22-Feb: What's Going On With Sina Corp?




Sogou Inc (SOGO US) 
4-Feb: FY20 results




Wanda Sports Group (WSG US) 
1-Feb: Offer to expire on the 26 Feb.






































Maeda Road Construction Co / Event-Driven

<p>13 months ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maeda-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6781:1" rel="noopener">Maeda Corp (1824 JP)</a> launched a hostile Tender Offer on its 25%-owned but largely independent affiliate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maeda-road-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2168:1" rel="noopener">Maeda Road Construction Co (1883 JP)</a>. Maeda Corp wanted to get to 51% because the Maeda Road business of infrastructure concessions looked like a great business they wanted to own more of. They left themselves an out whereby they could withdraw the Tender Offer if Maeda Road set a special dividend larger than a certain specified amount. Maeda Road did so after not being able to find a White Knight. Maeda Road, for its part, got very upset, calling on Maeda Corp to dissolve all capital ties and sell its shares in Maeda Road back to the company. </p>
<p>Strangely, after much kerfuffle and speculation, 11 months ago Maeda Corp let the Tender Offer it launched settle without extension or withdrawal, allowing the other 75% of shareholders to get an extra dividend and still sell a number of their shares into the Tender Offer at original terms.</p>
<p>That meant post-Tender the value of Maeda Road to both Maeda Corp and remaining shareholders was relatively lower than the undisturbed price prior to the hostile TOB launch. </p>
<section class="figure">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/190/574/original/Screenshot+2021-02-24+at+4.20.12+PM.png?1614154827" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="190574"></figure>
</section>
<p>This event was discussed in a series of insights which discussed the interest, the backdrop of the industry, and the event itself. </p>
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" style="width: 723.636px;">
<h2>Insights on Maeda Corp - Maeda Road Situation in Q1 2020</h2>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80px;">20 Jan 2020</td>
<td style="width: 622.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/not-all-parent-sub-situations-are-friendly-maeda-corp-goes-hostile-on-affiliate-maeda-road" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:35945" rel="noopener">Not All "Parent-Sub" Situations Are Friendly: Maeda Corp Goes Hostile On Affiliate Maeda Road</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80px;">20 Jan 2020</td>
<td style="width: 622.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/maeda-corp-tender-for-maeda-road-arb-grids-front-end-pricing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:35955" rel="noopener">Maeda Corp Tender for Maeda Road - Arb Grids &amp; Front End Pricing</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80px;">9 Feb 2020</td>
<td style="width: 622.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/maeda-road-needs-a-rabbit-from-the-hat-what-rabbit-s-possible-what-rabbit-s-likely" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36440" rel="noopener">Maeda Road Needs A Rabbit From The Hat - What Rabbit's Possible? What Rabbit's Likely?</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80px;">20 Feb 2020</td>
<td style="width: 622.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/maeda-road-53bn-rabbit-special-div-appears" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36792" rel="noopener">Maeda Road - ¥53bn Rabbit (Special Div) Appears</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80px;">28 Feb 2020</td>
<td style="width: 622.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/maeda-road-starts-talks-with-nippo-1881-as-a-white-knight-not-a-winner-yet" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36998" rel="noopener">Maeda Road Starts Talks With Nippo (1881) As a White Knight. Not a Winner Yet.</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80px;">5 Mar 2020</td>
<td style="width: 622.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/maeda-road-s-monty-hall-problem" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37201" rel="noopener">Maeda Road's 'Monty Hall Problem'</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80px;">11 Mar 2020</td>
<td style="width: 622.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/maeda-corp-has-maeda-road-options-so-do-you" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37392" rel="noopener">Maeda Corp Has Maeda Road Options... So Do You...</a> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80px;">13 Mar 2020</td>
<td style="width: 622.727px;">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/maeda-road-post-tender-where-do-we-stand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37428" rel="noopener">Maeda Road Post-Tender - Where Do We Stand?</a> </td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2>The NEW News</h2>
<p>Today after the close, Maeda Corp (1824), Maeda Road (1883), and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maeda-seisakusho-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13999:1" rel="noopener">Maeda Seisakusho (6281 JP)</a> made an <a href="https://www.maeda.co.jp/news/blog_assets/attachments/1025/20210224_2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> they would merge their economic interests in the formation of a Holding Company to be effective on October 1st. The stated purpose is to combine to better take on the headwinds in the construction industry which result from ageing demographics and weaker local and national budgets by unifying the group, improving the liquidity and allocation of management resources made scarce in future by a declining working population, and to speed up management decision-making. </p>
<p>There is a template for this kind of deal, and it <em>always</em> includes better allocation of management resources and speeding up decision-making. It almost never includes description of improvement/efficiency of a practical nature (<em>"we will sell all our cross-holdings and securities and instead use those assets to invest in the equity tranche of public-private initiatives on a high non-recourse leverage basis, improving ROE substantially"</em>). To be clear, that last thing in parentheses is quite clearly something the companies did NOT say but which would be welcome. </p>
<p>This is a relatively easy three-way scrip deal. It looks a done deal. Then there is getting comfortable with the back end.</p>

13 months ago, Maeda Corp (1824 JP) launched a hostile Tender Offer on its 25%-owned but largely independent affiliate Maeda Road Construction Co (1883 JP). Maeda Corp wanted to get to 51% because the Maeda Road business of infrastructure concessions looked like a great business they wanted to own more of. They left themselves an out whereby they could withdraw the Tender Offer if Maeda Road set a special dividend larger than a certain specified amount. Maeda Road did so after not being able to find a White Knight. Maeda Road, for its part, got very upset, calling on Maeda Corp to dissolve all capital ties and sell its shares in Maeda Road back to the company. 
Strangely, after much kerfuffle and speculation, 11 months ago Maeda Corp let the Tender Offer it launched settle without extension or withdrawal, allowing the other 75% of shareholders to get an extra dividend and still sell a number of their shares into the Tender Offer at original terms.
That meant post-Tender the value of Maeda Road to both Maeda Corp and remaining shareholders was relatively lower than the undisturbed price prior to the hostile TOB launch. 



This event was discussed in a series of insights which discussed the interest, the backdrop of the industry, and the event itself. 




Insights on Maeda Corp - Maeda Road Situation in Q1 2020



20 Jan 2020

Not All "Parent-Sub" Situations Are Friendly: Maeda Corp Goes Hostile On Affiliate Maeda Road 


20 Jan 2020

Maeda Corp Tender for Maeda Road - Arb Grids &amp; Front End Pricing 


9 Feb 2020

Maeda Road Needs A Rabbit From The Hat - What Rabbit's Possible? What Rabbit's Likely? 


20 Feb 2020

Maeda Road - ¥53bn Rabbit (Special Div) Appears 


28 Feb 2020

Maeda Road Starts Talks With Nippo (1881) As a White Knight. Not a Winner Yet. 


5 Mar 2020

Maeda Road's 'Monty Hall Problem' 


11 Mar 2020

Maeda Corp Has Maeda Road Options... So Do You... 


13 Mar 2020

Maeda Road Post-Tender - Where Do We Stand? 



The NEW News
Today after the close, Maeda Corp (1824), Maeda Road (1883), and Maeda Seisakusho (6281 JP) made an announcement they would merge their economic interests in the formation of a Holding Company to be effective on October 1st. The stated purpose is to combine to better take on the headwinds in the construction industry which result from ageing demographics and weaker local and national budgets by unifying the group, improving the liquidity and allocation of management resources made scarce in future by a declining working population, and to speed up management decision-making. 
There is a template for this kind of deal, and it always includes better allocation of management resources and speeding up decision-making. It almost never includes description of improvement/efficiency of a practical nature ("we will sell all our cross-holdings and securities and instead use those assets to invest in the equity tranche of public-private initiatives on a high non-recourse leverage basis, improving ROE substantially"). To be clear, that last thing in parentheses is quite clearly something the companies did NOT say but which would be welcome. 
This is a relatively easy three-way scrip deal. It looks a done deal. Then there is getting comfortable with the back end.

Maeda Corp/Road/Seisakusho - 3-Way Merger 1 Year After Hostile Takeover

Japan

MAEDA ROAD CONSTRUCTION CO., LTD. paves various roads.  The Company constructs highways, runways, and harbor facilities.  Maeda Road also performs civil engineering works and building construction for urban development and landscaping projects.  Additionally, the Company manufactures and sells asphalt paving mixture.

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Maeda Road Construction Co (1883 JP)

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