Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is one set of changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 50, one deletion for the S&amp;P/ASX 100, and four adds/ five deletes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade between 2-6 days of ADV on nearly all stocks. Short interest spikes in a few names indicate pre-positioning for the passive flow.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/core-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14712:1" rel="noopener">Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU)</a> is a potential inclusion to the MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index in June and that could add to the passive inflows on the stock.</li>
</ul>


There is one set of changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 50, one deletion for the S&amp;P/ASX 100, and four adds/ five deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX). 
Passive trackers will need to trade between 2-6 days of ADV on nearly all stocks. Short interest spikes in a few names indicate pre-positioning for the passive flow.

Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU) is a potential inclusion to the MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index in June and that could add to the passive inflows on the stock.


S&P/​​ASX Index Rebalance (June 2022): Mostly Expected, Some Surprises & Short Interest Spikes

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The scrip-heavy bid values <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a> at A$6.23 based on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a> price on 1 April, a 39.2% premium to the unaffected price of A$4.48.  </li>
<li>The Pendal Board hints at opportunism. We agree as the Perpetual offer is unattractive in the context of historical multiples and share prices. </li>
<li>The bid lays a marker of Pendal’s inherent value, and we think another bidding round is possible. The gross spread to the offer at the last close prices is 12.1%.  </li>
</ul>


The scrip-heavy bid values Pendal Group (PDL AU) at A$6.23 based on the Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) price on 1 April, a 39.2% premium to the unaffected price of A$4.48.  
The Pendal Board hints at opportunism. We agree as the Perpetual offer is unattractive in the context of historical multiples and share prices. 
The bid lays a marker of Pendal’s inherent value, and we think another bidding round is possible. The gross spread to the offer at the last close prices is 12.1%.  


Pendal’s Indicative Bid from Perpetual Is Underwhelming

<ul>
<li>Earlier today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a> made a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a> to acquire 100% of the shares by way of a Scheme of Arrangement.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a> shareholders will receive 1 share of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a> for every 7.5 shares of PDL plus A$1.67/PDL share in cash.</li>
<li>This is a highly opportunistic offer and it is unlikely that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a>'s Board will support the proposal. There could be further improved proposals that come in. </li>
</ul>


Earlier today, Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) made a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal for Pendal Group (PDL AU) to acquire 100% of the shares by way of a Scheme of Arrangement.

Pendal Group (PDL AU) shareholders will receive 1 share of Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) for every 7.5 shares of PDL plus A$1.67/PDL share in cash.
This is a highly opportunistic offer and it is unlikely that Pendal Group (PDL AU)'s Board will support the proposal. There could be further improved proposals that come in. 


Perpetual's Indicative (& Opportunistic) Offer for Pendal Group: Details & Index Implications

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Magellan Financial / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/magellan-financial-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20459:1" rel="noopener">Magellan Financial (MFG AU)</a> plans to raise upto US$186m (A$275m) to fund additional costs related to the offering of its new trust as well as for development of new products. The stock has more than doubled since the start of the year on the back of robust inflows. However, analysts remain overwhelmingly negative and the recent results might not change that.

Magellan Financial (MFG AU) plans to raise upto US$186m (A$275m) to fund additional costs related to the offering of its new trust as well as for development of new products. The stock has more than doubled since the start of the year on the back of robust inflows. However, analysts remain overwhelmingly negative and the recent results might not change that.

Magellan Financial Placement - Looks Expensive but Track Record Should Help

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Platinum Asset Management / Equity Capital Markets

The co-founder of  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/914" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:914:1">Platinum Asset Management (PTM AU)</a>, Kerr Neilson, and Judith Neilson are looking to sell 30m shares of the company at a fixed price of A$5.00. The deal scores poorly on our framework due to its poor track record, large deal size, weak earnings momentum and relatively expensive valuation. The selldown comes after the company weak 1H FY19 results last month which could put pressure on share price in the near term.

The co-founder of  Platinum Asset Management (PTM AU), Kerr Neilson, and Judith Neilson are looking to sell 30m shares of the company at a fixed price of A$5.00. The deal scores poorly on our framework due to its poor track record, large deal size, weak earnings momentum and relatively expensive valuation. The selldown comes after the company weak 1H FY19 results last month which could put pressure on share price in the near term.

Platinum Asset Management Placement -  Co-Founder Selling + Weak Earnings Momentum

Australia

Magellan Financial Group Ltd operates as an investment management company. The Company invests in global equities and listed infrastructure. Magellan Financial Group serves customers worldwide.

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Magellan Financial (MFG AU)

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (June 2022): Mostly Expected, Some Surprises & Short Interest Spikes

Most changes to the indices were expected, there are some surprises & short interest has spiked on some names. CXO could be added to the REMX....

Brian Freitas

Pendal’s Indicative Bid from Perpetual Is Underwhelming

The offer consists of a scrip component (1 Perpetual share for every 7.5 Pendal share) and a cash component (A$1.67). The Pendal Board hints at...

Arun George

Perpetual's Indicative (& Opportunistic) Offer for Pendal Group: Details & Index Implications

Perpetual's indicative & opportunistic proposal has resulted in a 21% jump in Pendal's stock price today. But that is unlikely to be enough. We...

Brian Freitas

Magellan Financial Placement - Looks Expensive but Track Record Should Help

Magellan Financial (MFG AU) plans to raise upto US$186m (A$275m) to fund additional costs related to the offering of its new trust as well as for...

Sumeet Singh

Platinum Asset Management Placement - Co-Founder Selling + Weak Earnings Momentum

The co-founder of Platinum Asset Management (PTM AU), Kerr Neilson, and Judith Neilson are looking to sell 30m shares of the company at a fixed...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

S&P/​​ASX Index Rebalance (June 2022): Mostly Expected, Some Surprises & Short Interest Spikes

Most changes to the indices were expected, there are some surprises & short interest has spiked on some names. CXO could be added to the REMX....

Brian Freitas

Pendal’s Indicative Bid from Perpetual Is Underwhelming

The offer consists of a scrip component (1 Perpetual share for every 7.5 Pendal share) and a cash component (A$1.67). The Pendal Board hints at...

Arun George

Perpetual's Indicative (& Opportunistic) Offer for Pendal Group: Details & Index Implications

Perpetual's indicative & opportunistic proposal has resulted in a 21% jump in Pendal's stock price today. But that is unlikely to be enough. We...

Brian Freitas

Magellan Financial Placement - Looks Expensive but Track Record Should Help

Magellan Financial (MFG AU) plans to raise upto US$186m (A$275m) to fund additional costs related to the offering of its new trust as well as for...

Sumeet Singh

Platinum Asset Management Placement - Co-Founder Selling + Weak Earnings Momentum

The co-founder of Platinum Asset Management (PTM AU), Kerr Neilson, and Judith Neilson are looking to sell 30m shares of the company at a fixed...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (June 2022): Mostly Expected, Some Surprises & Short Interest Spikes