IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a> rejected a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regal-partners-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29119:1" rel="noopener">Regal Partners (RPL AU)</a>/BPEA EQT at A$30.00 per share, an 11.5% premium to the undisturbed price. </li>
<li>Regal/BPEA EQT’s aim is to present shareholders with a choice - pay a premium to merge with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a> or receive a lower risk premium from Regal/BPEA EQT. </li>
<li>The Perpetual/Pendal deal is increasingly on shaky grounds. The skinny premium suggests that Regal/BPEA EQT have headroom to bump the offer to get the Board to engage. </li>
</ul>



Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) rejected a conditional, non-binding indicative proposal from Regal Partners (RPL AU)/BPEA EQT at A$30.00 per share, an 11.5% premium to the undisturbed price. 
Regal/BPEA EQT’s aim is to present shareholders with a choice - pay a premium to merge with Pendal Group (PDL AU) or receive a lower risk premium from Regal/BPEA EQT. 
The Perpetual/Pendal deal is increasingly on shaky grounds. The skinny premium suggests that Regal/BPEA EQT have headroom to bump the offer to get the Board to engage. 


Perpetual Turns from Predator to Prey with Regal/BPEA EQT’s Offer

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 30th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.2bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Woodside, CBA, NAB, ANZ, Metcash, Xero, Core Lithium.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 30th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.2bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Woodside, CBA, NAB, ANZ, Metcash, Xero, Core Lithium.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 30th): Woodside, CBA, NAB, ANZ, Metcash, Xero, Core Lithium

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a> entered a scheme implementation deed with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a>. The revised offer - scrip (1 Perpetual share for every 7.5 Pendal share) and cash (A$1.976).</li>
<li>The revised offer throws in an 18.3% higher cash component as a sweetener. The offer implies a healthy acquisition multiple compared to peers.</li>
<li>The offer is subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals. At the last close price, the gross spread to the current offer value of A$5.635 per share is 13.7%.</li>
</ul>



Pendal Group (PDL AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU). The revised offer - scrip (1 Perpetual share for every 7.5 Pendal share) and cash (A$1.976).
The revised offer throws in an 18.3% higher cash component as a sweetener. The offer implies a healthy acquisition multiple compared to peers.
The offer is subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals. At the last close price, the gross spread to the current offer value of A$5.635 per share is 13.7%.


Pendal Gets a Binding Offer from Perpetual

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd</a> have entered into a SID where Pendal shareholders will receive 1 share of Perpetual for every 7.5 shares in Pendal, plus cash of A$1.976/share.</li>
<li>While this is a premium to the last close and undisturbed prices, it is a discount to longer term prices. The Pendal Board has unanimously recommended the offer though.</li>
<li>In the short-term expect short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a> and increased shorts on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a> as arbs step in to close the gap.</li>
</ul>



Pendal Group and Perpetual Ltd have entered into a SID where Pendal shareholders will receive 1 share of Perpetual for every 7.5 shares in Pendal, plus cash of A$1.976/share.
While this is a premium to the last close and undisturbed prices, it is a discount to longer term prices. The Pendal Board has unanimously recommended the offer though.
In the short-term expect short covering on Pendal Group (PDL AU) and increased shorts on Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) as arbs step in to close the gap.


Pendal Group (PDL AU): Perpetual's Bump Should Get the Deal Done

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a> confirmed today that it is currently in “<em>high-level, preliminary, confidential discussions with Pendal in relation to a potential acquisition.</em>”</li>
<li>Since rejecting Perpetual’s offer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a>’s shares have underperformed most of its peers largely due to poor FUM performance. </li>
<li>Despite today’s pop, Pendal trades at a discount to historical and peer multiples. Perpetual’s renewed interest points to its underlying value. </li>
</ul>



Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) confirmed today that it is currently in “high-level, preliminary, confidential discussions with Pendal in relation to a potential acquisition.”
Since rejecting Perpetual’s offer, Pendal Group (PDL AU)’s shares have underperformed most of its peers largely due to poor FUM performance. 
Despite today’s pop, Pendal trades at a discount to historical and peer multiples. Perpetual’s renewed interest points to its underlying value. 


Australia

Magellan Financial Group Ltd operates as an investment management company. The Company invests in global equities and listed infrastructure. Magellan Financial Group serves customers worldwide.

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Magellan Financial (MFG AU)

Perpetual Turns from Predator to Prey with Regal/BPEA EQT’s Offer

The Perpetual/Pendal deal is increasingly on shaky grounds. The skinny premium suggests that Regal/BPEA EQT have headroom to bump the offer to get...

Arun George

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 30th): Woodside, CBA, NAB, ANZ, Metcash, Xero, Core Lithium

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Woodside, CBA, NAB, ANZ, Metcash, Xero, Core Lithium.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pendal Gets a Binding Offer from Perpetual

The offer implies a healthy acquisition multiple. Timing of regulatory approvals a key risk. At the last close price, the gross spread to the...

Arun George

Pendal Group (PDL AU): Perpetual's Bump Should Get the Deal Done

Perpetual has bumped its offer for Pendal & that should be enough to get the deal done. Both stocks have been on a downtrend over the last year and...

Brian Freitas

Perpetual Mulls Another Bid for Pendal

Despite today’s pop, Pendal trades at a discount to historical and peer multiples. Perpetual’s renewed interest points to its underlying value.

Arun George

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