Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Shares of city gas distribution players such as MAHGL, IGL, GUJGA and IRMENERG are down in the last one month.</li>
<li>This comes after the government's decision to reduce APM gas allocation towards CNG from 70% to 50%. </li>
<li>MAHGL, IGL due to high concentration towards CNG would be most impacted and would need price hikes. GUJGA and IRMENERG are less exposed due to high proportion of Industrial demand.</li>
</ul>


Shares of city gas distribution players such as MAHGL, IGL, GUJGA and IRMENERG are down in the last one month.
This comes after the government's decision to reduce APM gas allocation towards CNG from 70% to 50%. 
MAHGL, IGL due to high concentration towards CNG would be most impacted and would need price hikes. GUJGA and IRMENERG are less exposed due to high proportion of Industrial demand.


CGD Allocation Reduction- Decoding the Impact

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladhar

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Prabhudas Lilladher is one of India's leading research based financial services organisation.

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Future growth for MGL is poised to be driven by GA3, where penetration remains significantly lower compared to the more established GA1 and GA2.</li><li>Robust performance in the industrial segment would further support its growth trajectory.</li><li>However, margins could taper off given the falling domestic gas allocation, while the possibility of fuel price cuts could impact its competitive positioning.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Future growth for MGL is poised to be driven by GA3, where penetration remains significantly lower compared to the more established GA1 and GA2.Robust performance in the industrial segment would further support its growth trajectory.However, margins could taper off given the falling domestic gas allocation, while the possibility of fuel price cuts could impact its competitive positioning.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahanagar Gas - Steady Volume Growth, but Lower Margins Likely

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>SEBI has overhauled F&amp;O eligibility criteria, introducing stricter norms for stock inclusion and exclusion for more active stocks. </li>
<li>As per calculation, New criteria will include 80 stocks and exclude 18 to 23, impacting market liquidity and stability.</li>
<li>This will lead to the creation of a more robust, transparent, and liquid for the F&amp;O Market.</li>
</ul>


SEBI has overhauled F&amp;O eligibility criteria, introducing stricter norms for stock inclusion and exclusion for more active stocks. 
As per calculation, New criteria will include 80 stocks and exclude 18 to 23, impacting market liquidity and stability.
This will lead to the creation of a more robust, transparent, and liquid for the F&amp;O Market.


SEBI's F&O Criteria Revision & Its Impact

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The Mahanagar Gas (MGL) stock price has rallied ~43% and outperformed the Sensex by ~34% in the last 3M</li><li>We expect strong volume growth to continue to drive stock price outperformance</li><li>We anticipate that the robust CNG vehicle registration data, accelerated infrastructure rollout in existing geographical areas (GAs), volume growth contribution from the acquired three GAs of Unison Enviro (UEPL) and competitive CNG price vs petrol/diesel will support strong volume growth of 10.4% CAGR over FY24-26E</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Mahanagar Gas (MGL) stock price has rallied ~43% and outperformed the Sensex by ~34% in the last 3MWe expect strong volume growth to continue to drive stock price outperformanceWe anticipate that the robust CNG vehicle registration data, accelerated infrastructure rollout in existing geographical areas (GAs), volume growth contribution from the acquired three GAs of Unison Enviro (UEPL) and competitive CNG price vs petrol/diesel will support strong volume growth of 10.4% CAGR over FY24-26EContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahanagar Gas: Volume Growth Picking Up, Maintain Buy

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Mahanagar Gas Ltd.’s (MAHGL) EBITDA decreased 20% YoY to INR4.2b in 1QFY25, mainly driven by a 29% YoY dip in EBITDA/scm to INR11.9 (MOSL est: INR 10.9).</li><li>Volumes grew 13% YoY to 3.9mmscmd driven by CNG and I/C-PNG. Key highlights from the conference call: 1) EBITDA/scm came in strong despite APM gas allocation below 70% in 1QFY25, 2) management guidance on both margin and volume growth remains conservative at 7% volume growth (ex-UEPL) and INR10-12 EBITDA/scm, 3) volume growth at UEPL is in mid-teens and can sustain for the next 6-7 years, 4) MAHGL is looking to add 75 stations in FY25 on a base of ~400 stations (incl. UEPL), 5) MAHGL guided an improved volume outlook in 2Q/3QFY25, besides margin support from CNG price hikes taken in early Jul’24.</li><li>Outlook We expect a 7% CAGR in volume over FY24-26, driven by multiple initiatives implemented by the company, such as partnering with OEMs to drive conversions of commercial CNG vehicles and providing guaranteed price discounts to new I/C-PNG customers.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahanagar Gas Ltd.’s (MAHGL) EBITDA decreased 20% YoY to INR4.2b in 1QFY25, mainly driven by a 29% YoY dip in EBITDA/scm to INR11.9 (MOSL est: INR 10.9).Volumes grew 13% YoY to 3.9mmscmd driven by CNG and I/C-PNG. Key highlights from the conference call: 1) EBITDA/scm came in strong despite APM gas allocation below 70% in 1QFY25, 2) management guidance on both margin and volume growth remains conservative at 7% volume growth (ex-UEPL) and INR10-12 EBITDA/scm, 3) volume growth at UEPL is in mid-teens and can sustain for the next 6-7 years, 4) MAHGL is looking to add 75 stations in FY25 on a base of ~400 stations (incl. UEPL), 5) MAHGL guided an improved volume outlook in 2Q/3QFY25, besides margin support from CNG price hikes taken in early Jul’24.Outlook We expect a 7% CAGR in volume over FY24-26, driven by multiple initiatives implemented by the company, such as partnering with OEMs to drive conversions of commercial CNG vehicles and providing guaranteed price discounts to new I/C-PNG customers.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahanagar Gas - Volume/Margin Surpass Guidance

India

Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) distributes natural gas. The Company provides gas to domestic customers such as hospitals, nursing homes, hotels, flight kitchens, and restaurants. MGL serves customers in India.

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Mahanagar Gas (MAHGL IN)

CGD Allocation Reduction- Decoding the Impact

Shares of CGD players are down due to government reducing APM gas allocation for CNG, impacting MAHGL and IGL the most while GUJGA and IRMENERG...

Nitin Mangal

Mahanagar Gas - Steady Volume Growth, but Lower Margins Likely

Future growth for MGL is poised to be driven by GA3, where penetration remains significantly lower compared to the more established GA1 and GA2.

Prabhudas Lilladhar

SEBI's F&O Criteria Revision & Its Impact

SEBI introduces stricter F&O eligibility criteria, impacting market liquidity and stability by including 80 stocks and excluding 18 to 23. #SEBI...

Nimish Maheshwari

Mahanagar Gas: Volume Growth Picking Up, Maintain Buy

The Mahanagar Gas (MGL) stock price has rallied ~43% and outperformed the Sensex by ~34% in the last 3M. We expect strong volume growth to continue...

HDFC Securities

Mahanagar Gas - Volume/Margin Surpass Guidance

The stock trades at 13.5x FY26E EPS of INR136.9. We value it at 16x FY26E EPS to arrive at our TP of INR2,200. Reiterate BUY.

Motilal Oswal

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CGD Allocation Reduction- Decoding the Impact

​Shares of CGD players are down due to government reducing APM gas allocation for CNG, impacting MAHGL and IGL the most while GUJGA and IRMENERG...

Nitin Mangal

Mahanagar Gas - Steady Volume Growth, but Lower Margins Likely

Future growth for MGL is poised to be driven by GA3, where penetration remains significantly lower compared to the more established GA1 and GA2.

Prabhudas Lilladhar

SEBI's F&O Criteria Revision & Its Impact

​SEBI introduces stricter F&O eligibility criteria, impacting market liquidity and stability by including 80 stocks and excluding 18 to 23. #SEBI...

Nimish Maheshwari

Mahanagar Gas: Volume Growth Picking Up, Maintain Buy

The Mahanagar Gas (MGL) stock price has rallied ~43% and outperformed the Sensex by ~34% in the last 3M. We expect strong volume growth to continue...

HDFC Securities

Mahanagar Gas - Volume/Margin Surpass Guidance

The stock trades at 13.5x FY26E EPS of INR136.9. We value it at 16x FY26E EPS to arrive at our TP of INR2,200. Reiterate BUY.

Motilal Oswal

Shares of CGD players are down due to government reducing APM gas allocation for CNG, impacting MAHGL and IGL the most while GUJGA and IRMENERG...

SEBI introduces stricter F&O eligibility criteria, impacting market liquidity and stability by including 80 stocks and excluding 18 to 23. #SEBI...