Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our August 8, 2024 Int’l Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023</li>
<li>As discussed since late-July, we believe we're still within a 4- to 6-month pullback/consolidation from our selected July 17 starting point, until the market decides which was this consolidation resolves </li>
<li>TOPIX is below 2740-2820 resistance. Europe is testing resistance, though near potential breakouts on the EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and STOXX Europe 50. Watch for false breakouts</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our August 8, 2024 Int’l Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023
As discussed since late-July, we believe we're still within a 4- to 6-month pullback/consolidation from our selected July 17 starting point, until the market decides which was this consolidation resolves 
TOPIX is below 2740-2820 resistance. Europe is testing resistance, though near potential breakouts on the EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and STOXX Europe 50. Watch for false breakouts


Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE (Local Curr) Below Resistance

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Aug’24 Wholesale Volumes: The domestic 2W industry witnessed strong volume growth of ~9%/19% and total exports were up by 14%/2%% YoY/ MoM respectively.</li><li>The domestic PV sales (Exhibit-2) degrew by 1-4% YoY (up 3% MoM), largely due to weakness in MSIL/Tata Motors/Hyundai/ Honda partly offset by strong domestic SUV volumes by Toyota/ M&amp;M/ Kia/ MG.</li><li>The domestic CV industry sales degrew by ~11% YoY (marginally up 3% MoM) mainly due to lower MHCV truck volumes which were partly set off by high bus volumes). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aug’24 Wholesale Volumes: The domestic 2W industry witnessed strong volume growth of ~9%/19% and total exports were up by 14%/2%% YoY/ MoM respectively.The domestic PV sales (Exhibit-2) degrew by 1-4% YoY (up 3% MoM), largely due to weakness in MSIL/Tata Motors/Hyundai/ Honda partly offset by strong domestic SUV volumes by Toyota/ M&amp;M/ Kia/ MG.The domestic CV industry sales degrew by ~11% YoY (marginally up 3% MoM) mainly due to lower MHCV truck volumes which were partly set off by high bus volumes). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The aggregate performance of the Q1FY25 earnings season was largely on expected lines, with wide divergences across sectors and companies</li><li>Aggregate revenue/PAT grew by 7%/0% YoY and -2%/-8% QoQ across the HSIE coverage (~229 stocks)</li><li>Overall earnings were adversely skewed by the weak performance of OMCs, hence ex-OMCs, revenue/PAT grew by 9%/13% YoY and -2%/-5% QoQ.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The aggregate performance of the Q1FY25 earnings season was largely on expected lines, with wide divergences across sectors and companiesAggregate revenue/PAT grew by 7%/0% YoY and -2%/-8% QoQ across the HSIE coverage (~229 stocks)Overall earnings were adversely skewed by the weak performance of OMCs, hence ex-OMCs, revenue/PAT grew by 9%/13% YoY and -2%/-5% QoQ.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Quarterly Flipbook: Earnings growth moderates, demand pick-up holds the key

<ul><li>The auto sector has outperformed the Nifty Index in Q4, led largely by a sharp rally in some 2W and PV stocks</li><li>We continue to like Maruti Suzuki, and M&amp;M as we expect both of them to continue to outperform the UV segment, which would in turn help improve their performance</li><li>Within 2Ws, we continue to like TVS Motors. We have rolled over the valuation to the year-ended Jun-26.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The auto sector has outperformed the Nifty Index in Q4, led largely by a sharp rally in some 2W and PV stocksWe continue to like Maruti Suzuki, and M&amp;M as we expect both of them to continue to outperform the UV segment, which would in turn help improve their performanceWithin 2Ws, we continue to like TVS Motors. We have rolled over the valuation to the year-ended Jun-26.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Autos (Q1FY25 Results Preview): 2W to Drive Growth While PVs Ride Pillion

<ul><li>Auto OEMs: We expect Revenue/EBITDA/PAT for our OEM coverage universe to grow by ~10%/24%/21% YoY along with ~160bps improvement in EBITDA margin.</li><li>The growth will be driven by i) Double-digit volume growth in 2Ws, ii) Mid to high single-digit growth for PVs/CVs partially, which will be offset by iii) Single-digit YoY decline in the tractor volumes respectively.</li><li>The YoY EBITDA margin expansion will be led by a richer product mix, RM softening and price hikes undertaken over the last one year</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto OEMs: We expect Revenue/EBITDA/PAT for our OEM coverage universe to grow by ~10%/24%/21% YoY along with ~160bps improvement in EBITDA margin.The growth will be driven by i) Double-digit volume growth in 2Ws, ii) Mid to high single-digit growth for PVs/CVs partially, which will be offset by iii) Single-digit YoY decline in the tractor volumes respectively.The YoY EBITDA margin expansion will be led by a richer product mix, RM softening and price hikes undertaken over the last one yearContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

Mahindra & Mahindra is a prominent Indian multinational manufacturing corporation. It is a leading global manufacturer of tractors and a major producer of SUVs, commercial vehicles, and two-wheelers. Headquartered in Mumbai, India, the company was founded on October 2, 1945.

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Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN)

Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE (Local Curr) Below Resistance

Japan and Europe Holding Below Resistance; MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE (local currency) Also Below Resistance Though Testing Now; $EEM breakout...

Vermilion Research

Auto Monthly Volume August 2024

Aug’24 Wholesale Volumes: The domestic 2W industry witnessed strong volume growth of ~9%/19% and total exports were up by 14%/2%% YoY/ MoM...

Axis Direct

Quarterly Flipbook: Earnings growth moderates, demand pick-up holds the key

The aggregate performance of the Q1FY25 earnings season was largely on expected lines, with wide divergences across sectors and companies

HDFC Securities

Autos (Q1FY25 Results Preview): 2W to Drive Growth While PVs Ride Pillion

We continue to like Maruti Suzuki, and M&M as we expect both of them to continue to outperform the UV segment, which would in turn help improve...

HDFC Securities

Q1FY25 Earnings Preview - Automobile

Auto OEMs: We expect Revenue/EBITDA/PAT for our OEM coverage universe to grow by ~10%/24%/21% YoY along with ~160bps improvement in EBITDA margin.

Axis Direct

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