Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>RBI's MPC cut 25bp as expected, but it remains behind the curve, with the real policy rate now excessively high at +5%. RBI inflation forecasts were and remain too high. </li>
<li>Food deflation is likely to be shortlived, with vegetable prices rising MoM since May'25. But all other food and non-food inflation components are moderating, and GST cuts impart further disinflation. </li>
<li>We expect inflation to be 1.8%YoY in Q4FY26 (vs RBI's 2.9%YoY forecast), 2.3% and 2.5% in Q1 and Q2FY27, so expect another 75bp reduction in repo rate by Aug'26. </li>
</ul>


RBI's MPC cut 25bp as expected, but it remains behind the curve, with the real policy rate now excessively high at +5%. RBI inflation forecasts were and remain too high. 
Food deflation is likely to be shortlived, with vegetable prices rising MoM since May'25. But all other food and non-food inflation components are moderating, and GST cuts impart further disinflation. 
We expect inflation to be 1.8%YoY in Q4FY26 (vs RBI's 2.9%YoY forecast), 2.3% and 2.5% in Q1 and Q2FY27, so expect another 75bp reduction in repo rate by Aug'26. 


India: RBI Cuts 25bp but the Real Policy Rate Is Still Too High at +5%

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Over Apr–Nov’26, Cumulative 2W domestic sales grew by 7% YoY to 1.7 Cr units, supported by strong performances from TVS (+15%), RE (+25%), and Hero (+30%), which more than offset a marginal decline in Bajaj (-1%).</li><li>In contrast, 2W exports reflected improved traction across global markets.</li><li>On a YTD basis, 3W domestic wholesales rose 16% YoY to 5.5 Lc units, led by TVS (+57%) and M&amp;M (+28%), while Bajaj reported modest 3% growth. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Over Apr–Nov’26, Cumulative 2W domestic sales grew by 7% YoY to 1.7 Cr units, supported by strong performances from TVS (+15%), RE (+25%), and Hero (+30%), which more than offset a marginal decline in Bajaj (-1%).In contrast, 2W exports reflected improved traction across global markets.On a YTD basis, 3W domestic wholesales rose 16% YoY to 5.5 Lc units, led by TVS (+57%) and M&amp;M (+28%), while Bajaj reported modest 3% growth. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto Monthly Sales Volume - November 2025

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Indian Oil Corporation: Our REDUCE rating on Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL) with a target price of INR 150 is premised on margin pressure due to increasing petchem supplies/capacity and moderation in auto fuel marketing margins</li><li>IOCL’s Q2FY26 reported EBITDA at INR 146bn (+286.6% YoY, +15.7% QoQ) and APAT at INR76bn (+41.2x YoY, +33.8% QoQ) came in below our estimates due to lower-than-expected refining margin and marketing volumes</li><li>Reported GRMs came in at USD 10.66/bbl (+5.7x YoY, +3.9x QoQ)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indian Oil Corporation: Our REDUCE rating on Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL) with a target price of INR 150 is premised on margin pressure due to increasing petchem supplies/capacity and moderation in auto fuel marketing marginsIOCL’s Q2FY26 reported EBITDA at INR 146bn (+286.6% YoY, +15.7% QoQ) and APAT at INR76bn (+41.2x YoY, +33.8% QoQ) came in below our estimates due to lower-than-expected refining margin and marketing volumesReported GRMs came in at USD 10.66/bbl (+5.7x YoY, +3.9x QoQ)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Indian Oil Corporation, TVS Motor, SRF...

<ul><li>While domestic focussed auto companies should get a fillip post the GST rate rationalization, leading to revival of growth rates, we will only see it play out meaningfully from Q3FY25</li><li>The shortage of truck trailers for vehicle transport has led to deferment of some wholesales from September to October, thus capping the wholesale volumes in Q2FY25</li><li>The key auto ancillary companies continue to face global headwinds on softer demand, partial tariff-related cost absorption.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

While domestic focussed auto companies should get a fillip post the GST rate rationalization, leading to revival of growth rates, we will only see it play out meaningfully from Q3FY25The shortage of truck trailers for vehicle transport has led to deferment of some wholesales from September to October, thus capping the wholesale volumes in Q2FY25The key auto ancillary companies continue to face global headwinds on softer demand, partial tariff-related cost absorption.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Autos (Q2FY26 Results Preview): Indian market well-poised amid global softness

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

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Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>The Indian automobile industry experienced a significant boost in sales in September 2025, driven by delayed purchases and the positive effects of GST reductions.</li>
<li>The increase in retail sales highlights a strong recovery in the sector, which is expected to continue into October as the full impact of the GST cuts becomes clear.</li>
<li>The sector’s strong performance and high consumer demand suggest a positive outlook for the coming months, with several key OEMs set for sustained growth.</li>
</ul>


The Indian automobile industry experienced a significant boost in sales in September 2025, driven by delayed purchases and the positive effects of GST reductions.
The increase in retail sales highlights a strong recovery in the sector, which is expected to continue into October as the full impact of the GST cuts becomes clear.
The sector’s strong performance and high consumer demand suggest a positive outlook for the coming months, with several key OEMs set for sustained growth.


The Beat Ideas: Indian Auto Industry: GST Cuts Power Record Festive Sales Surge

India

Mahindra & Mahindra is a prominent Indian multinational manufacturing corporation. It is a leading global manufacturer of tractors and a major producer of SUVs, commercial vehicles, and two-wheelers. Headquartered in Mumbai, India, the company was founded on October 2, 1945.

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Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN)

India: RBI Cuts 25bp but the Real Policy Rate Is Still Too High at +5%

RBI cut rates 25bp but remains behind the curve, as its inflation forecasts were and remain too high. We expect another 75bp of rate cuts by...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Auto Monthly Sales Volume - November 2025

Over Apr–Nov’26, Cumulative 2W domestic sales grew by 7% YoY to 1.7 Cr units, supported by strong performances from TVS (+15%), RE (+25%), and Hero...

Axis Direct

HSIE Results Daily: Indian Oil Corporation, TVS Motor, SRF...

Our REDUCE rating on Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL) with a target price of INR 150 is premised on margin pressure due to increasing petchem supplies...

HDFC Securities

Autos (Q2FY26 Results Preview): Indian market well-poised amid global softness

While domestic focussed auto companies should get a fillip post the GST rate rationalization, leading to revival of growth rates, we will only see...

HDFC Securities

The Beat Ideas: Indian Auto Industry: GST Cuts Power Record Festive Sales Surge

Indian auto industry sees surge in September 2025 sales due to delayed purchases and GST reductions, with strong recovery expected to continue...

Sudarshan Bhandari

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India: RBI Cuts 25bp but the Real Policy Rate Is Still Too High at +5%

​RBI cut rates 25bp but remains behind the curve, as its inflation forecasts were and remain too high. We expect another 75bp of rate cuts by...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Auto Monthly Sales Volume - November 2025

Over Apr–Nov’26, Cumulative 2W domestic sales grew by 7% YoY to 1.7 Cr units, supported by strong performances from TVS (+15%), RE (+25%), and Hero...

Axis Direct

HSIE Results Daily: Indian Oil Corporation, TVS Motor, SRF...

Our REDUCE rating on Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL) with a target price of INR 150 is premised on margin pressure due to increasing petchem supplies...

HDFC Securities

Autos (Q2FY26 Results Preview): Indian market well-poised amid global softness

While domestic focussed auto companies should get a fillip post the GST rate rationalization, leading to revival of growth rates, we will only see...

HDFC Securities

The Beat Ideas: Indian Auto Industry: GST Cuts Power Record Festive Sales Surge

​Indian auto industry sees surge in September 2025 sales due to delayed purchases and GST reductions, with strong recovery expected to continue...

Sudarshan Bhandari

RBI cut rates 25bp but remains behind the curve, as its inflation forecasts were and remain too high. We expect another 75bp of rate cuts by...

Indian auto industry sees surge in September 2025 sales due to delayed purchases and GST reductions, with strong recovery expected to continue...