Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gentrack-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2752:1" rel="noopener">Gentrack (GTK NZ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dorchester-pacific-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1854:1" rel="noopener">Turners Automotive (TRA NZ)</a> will be added to the S&amp;P/NZX 50 Index while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/synlait-milk-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16298:1" rel="noopener">Synlait Milk (SML NZ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-edge-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20261:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Edge (PEB NZ)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>There is a lot to trade on the stocks. The impact in terms of days of ADV appears high but historically there has been volume on implementation date.</li>
<li>The adds have jumped recently and there will be pre-positioning on the stocks. Not so much on the deletes.</li>
</ul>



Gentrack (GTK NZ) and Turners Automotive (TRA NZ) will be added to the S&amp;P/NZX 50 Index while Synlait Milk (SML NZ) and Pacific Edge (PEB NZ) will be deleted.
There is a lot to trade on the stocks. The impact in terms of days of ADV appears high but historically there has been volume on implementation date.
The adds have jumped recently and there will be pre-positioning on the stocks. Not so much on the deletes.


S&P/NZX 50 Index Rebalance: Two High Impact Changes Coming Up

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Mainfreight's (MFT) 1H24 result appears weak, with profit before tax (PBT) down -42% against the prior year, but follows material overearning in FY23.</li><li>Management suggests the result reflects, "a more normalised trading environment".</li><li>We agree: with emphasis on the word more. We're not convinced that the global freight system has fully normalised yet, given supply chain de-stocking dampening volumes in the period and ocean freight contract rates still materially higher than spot rates. </li></ul>

Mainfreight's (MFT) 1H24 result appears weak, with profit before tax (PBT) down -42% against the prior year, but follows material overearning in FY23.Management suggests the result reflects, "a more normalised trading environment".We agree: with emphasis on the word more. We're not convinced that the global freight system has fully normalised yet, given supply chain de-stocking dampening volumes in the period and ocean freight contract rates still materially higher than spot rates. 

<ul><li>Mainfreight (MFT) is due to report a material decline in profitability in its 1H24 result on 9 November 2023, due to unfavourable trading conditions.</li><li>A weak global and domestic volume backdrop has compounded rates pressure in the sea and air freight markets.</li><li>Lower volumes reflects a weaker global consumer and supply chain destocking.</li></ul>

Mainfreight (MFT) is due to report a material decline in profitability in its 1H24 result on 9 November 2023, due to unfavourable trading conditions.A weak global and domestic volume backdrop has compounded rates pressure in the sea and air freight markets.Lower volumes reflects a weaker global consumer and supply chain destocking.

Mainfreight - 1H24 Preview — Destock O'clock

<ul><li>Mainfreight's (MFT) Annual Shareholder Meeting trading update was worse than feared.</li><li>The magnitude of the surprise leads us to revisit our investment case, yet our rating remains OUTPERFORM, underpinned by a number of truths.</li><li> <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Truth #1:</span> MFT is not losing customers, it is winning new customers, though volumes are down materially.</li></ul>

Mainfreight's (MFT) Annual Shareholder Meeting trading update was worse than feared.The magnitude of the surprise leads us to revisit our investment case, yet our rating remains OUTPERFORM, underpinned by a number of truths. Truth #1: MFT is not losing customers, it is winning new customers, though volumes are down materially.

<ul><li>Mainfreight’s (MFT) 68 page semi-annual employee newsletter highlights a heightened focus on quality, network expansion and sustainable growth within the business, but recognition that the year ahead will be more challenging.</li><li>Don Braid, CEO: “In the next 6 to 12 months, we will expect to encounter slowing economic growth in most of the regions where we are located. Some will recover quicker – others not so.</li><li>The next scheduled news flow from MFT will be its Annual Shareholder Meeting and a likely trading update on 27 July 2023</li></ul>

Mainfreight’s (MFT) 68 page semi-annual employee newsletter highlights a heightened focus on quality, network expansion and sustainable growth within the business, but recognition that the year ahead will be more challenging.Don Braid, CEO: “In the next 6 to 12 months, we will expect to encounter slowing economic growth in most of the regions where we are located. Some will recover quicker – others not so.The next scheduled news flow from MFT will be its Annual Shareholder Meeting and a likely trading update on 27 July 2023

Mainfreight: July 2023 Team Newsletter Insights

New Zealand

Mainfreight Limited provides and supplies freight, warehousing and logistics services throughout New Zealand and Australia.  The Company provides freight forwarding services by road, rail, sea and air along with providing international freight forwarding services, customs clearance services and specialized handling of hazardous substances.

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Mainfreight Ltd (MFT NZ)

S&P/NZX 50 Index Rebalance: Two High Impact Changes Coming Up

As expected, Gentrack and Turners Auto will replace Synlait Milk and Pacific Edge in the NZX50 Index. The adds have jumped recently and there...

Brian Freitas

Mainfreight - 1H24 — Rebasing

Mainfreight's (MFT) 1H24 result appears weak, with profit before tax (PBT) down -42% against the prior year, but follows material overearning in FY23.

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight - 1H24 Preview — Destock O'clock

Mainfreight (MFT) is due to report a material decline in profitability in its 1H24 result on 9 November 2023, due to unfavourable trading conditions.

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight - Bruising

Mainfreight's (MFT) Annual Shareholder Meeting trading update was worse than feared. The magnitude of the surprise leads us to revisit our...

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

S&P/NZX 50 Index Rebalance: Two High Impact Changes Coming Up

As expected, Gentrack and Turners Auto will replace Synlait Milk and Pacific Edge in the NZX50 Index. The adds have jumped recently and there...

Brian Freitas

Mainfreight - 1H24 — Rebasing

Mainfreight's (MFT) 1H24 result appears weak, with profit before tax (PBT) down -42% against the prior year, but follows material overearning in FY23.

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight - 1H24 Preview — Destock O'clock

Mainfreight (MFT) is due to report a material decline in profitability in its 1H24 result on 9 November 2023, due to unfavourable trading conditions.

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight - Bruising

Mainfreight's (MFT) Annual Shareholder Meeting trading update was worse than feared. The magnitude of the surprise leads us to revisit our...

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight: July 2023 Team Newsletter Insights

Mainfreight’s (MFT) 68 page semi-annual employee newsletter highlights a heightened focus on quality, network expansion and sustainable growth...

Forsyth Barr