Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Concerns over perceived U.S. central bank policy missteps have been <em>somewhat alleviated </em>following dovish takeaways from Fed Chair Powell’s comments this week. However, trade tensions remain a concern for global markets despite optimism surrounding the Trump/Xi meeting at the G20 summit this week. Therefore, our outlook remains cautious and we expect consolidation to continue as global equities enjoy a bounce off of recent lows. Ultimately, we will need to see more definitive signs of bottoming throughout Europe, Asia, and the U.S. before getting positive on global equities.  We provide a technical appraisal of major markets and highlight attractive set ups in global transportation, communications, and financial sectors</p>

Concerns over perceived U.S. central bank policy missteps have been somewhat alleviated following dovish takeaways from Fed Chair Powell’s comments this week. However, trade tensions remain a concern for global markets despite optimism surrounding the Trump/Xi meeting at the G20 summit this week. Therefore, our outlook remains cautious and we expect consolidation to continue as global equities enjoy a bounce off of recent lows. Ultimately, we will need to see more definitive signs of bottoming throughout Europe, Asia, and the U.S. before getting positive on global equities.  We provide a technical appraisal of major markets and highlight attractive set ups in global transportation, communications, and financial sectors

Global Equity Strategy: Bouncing off Lows, China Perking Up

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Recent global freight industry data points and peer commentary suggest more downside than upside risk to Mainfreight's (MFT) near-term outlook.</li><li>After a challenging start to FY26 (PBT was down -24% in the first 17 weeks), MFT is in catch-up mode, though its prior-year comparatives become more challenging for the remainder of the year.</li><li>Despite this backdrop, MFT's one-year forward PE has firmed to ~24x in recent weeks, while its closest global peers have de-rated.</li></ul>

Recent global freight industry data points and peer commentary suggest more downside than upside risk to Mainfreight's (MFT) near-term outlook.After a challenging start to FY26 (PBT was down -24% in the first 17 weeks), MFT is in catch-up mode, though its prior-year comparatives become more challenging for the remainder of the year.Despite this backdrop, MFT's one-year forward PE has firmed to ~24x in recent weeks, while its closest global peers have de-rated.

<ul><li>Mainfreight (MFT) reported a tough start to FY26 at its Annual Shareholder Meeting (ASM), with a material decline in year-to-date profitability relative to the prior year.</li><li>With revenue growth marginally positive year-to-date, the sharp drop in earnings stems from further margin pressure across all three products (Transport, Warehousing and Air &amp; Ocean).</li><li>Despite this unfavourable earnings backdrop and repeated downgrades over the past three years, MFT still offers long-term growth potential, as illustrated by further new customer wins.</li></ul>

Mainfreight (MFT) reported a tough start to FY26 at its Annual Shareholder Meeting (ASM), with a material decline in year-to-date profitability relative to the prior year.With revenue growth marginally positive year-to-date, the sharp drop in earnings stems from further margin pressure across all three products (Transport, Warehousing and Air &amp; Ocean).Despite this unfavourable earnings backdrop and repeated downgrades over the past three years, MFT still offers long-term growth potential, as illustrated by further new customer wins.

<ul><li>Mainfreight (MFT) reported a mixed FY25 result, with strong momentum in Australia offset by profit declines in New Zealand, the Americas, and Asia.</li><li>Underlying PBT fell marginally in FY25, but the second half showed sequential improvement, indicating potential earnings growth in FY26.</li><li>The target price for MFT has been lifted to NZ$77 from NZ$71, reflecting a strong re-rating of key peers over the past four weeks.</li></ul>

Mainfreight (MFT) reported a mixed FY25 result, with strong momentum in Australia offset by profit declines in New Zealand, the Americas, and Asia.Underlying PBT fell marginally in FY25, but the second half showed sequential improvement, indicating potential earnings growth in FY26.The target price for MFT has been lifted to NZ$77 from NZ$71, reflecting a strong re-rating of key peers over the past four weeks.

Mainfreight FY25 Result—Australia Takes the Lead

<ul><li>Mainfreight (MFT) is expected to report a mixed FY25 result on 29 May 2025, with stable consensus earnings outlook amidst an uncertain economic backdrop.</li><li>Key issues for FY25 include tariff negotiation implications, freight volumes, A&amp;O margins, regional performance, capex guidance, and bonus accruals.</li><li>FY25 earnings are expected to exceed the consensus of ~NZ$375m, although the quality of earnings remains to be determined, and the outlook for FY26 is uncertain.</li></ul>

Mainfreight (MFT) is expected to report a mixed FY25 result on 29 May 2025, with stable consensus earnings outlook amidst an uncertain economic backdrop.Key issues for FY25 include tariff negotiation implications, freight volumes, A&amp;O margins, regional performance, capex guidance, and bonus accruals.FY25 earnings are expected to exceed the consensus of ~NZ$375m, although the quality of earnings remains to be determined, and the outlook for FY26 is uncertain.

New Zealand

Mainfreight Limited provides and supplies freight, warehousing and logistics services throughout New Zealand and Australia.  The Company provides freight forwarding services by road, rail, sea and air along with providing international freight forwarding services, customs clearance services and specialized handling of hazardous substances.

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Mainfreight Ltd (MFT NZ)

Global Equity Strategy: Bouncing off Lows, China Perking Up

Concerns over perceived U.S. central bank policy missteps have been somewhat alleviated following dovish takeaways from Fed Chair Powell’s comments...

Vermilion Research

Mainfreight Freighting Re-Rating

Recent global freight industry data points and peer commentary suggest more downside than upside risk to Mainfreight's (MFT) near-term outlook.

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight - Margin Blues

Mainfreight (MFT) reported a tough start to FY26 at its Annual Shareholder Meeting (ASM), with a material decline in year-to-date profitability...

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight FY25 Result—Australia Takes the Lead

Mainfreight (MFT) reported a mixed FY25 result, with strong momentum in Australia offset by profit declines in New Zealand, the Americas, and Asia.

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight FY25 Preview—Mixed

Mainfreight (MFT) is expected to report a mixed FY25 result on 29 May 2025, with stable consensus earnings outlook amidst an uncertain economic...

Forsyth Barr

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