New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Mainfreight's (MFT) 1H24 result appears weak, with profit before tax (PBT) down -42% against the prior year, but follows material overearning in FY23.</li><li>Management suggests the result reflects, "a more normalised trading environment".</li><li>We agree: with emphasis on the word more. We're not convinced that the global freight system has fully normalised yet, given supply chain de-stocking dampening volumes in the period and ocean freight contract rates still materially higher than spot rates. </li></ul>

Mainfreight's (MFT) 1H24 result appears weak, with profit before tax (PBT) down -42% against the prior year, but follows material overearning in FY23.Management suggests the result reflects, "a more normalised trading environment".We agree: with emphasis on the word more. We're not convinced that the global freight system has fully normalised yet, given supply chain de-stocking dampening volumes in the period and ocean freight contract rates still materially higher than spot rates. 

<ul><li>Mainfreight (MFT) is due to report a material decline in profitability in its 1H24 result on 9 November 2023, due to unfavourable trading conditions.</li><li>A weak global and domestic volume backdrop has compounded rates pressure in the sea and air freight markets.</li><li>Lower volumes reflects a weaker global consumer and supply chain destocking.</li></ul>

Mainfreight (MFT) is due to report a material decline in profitability in its 1H24 result on 9 November 2023, due to unfavourable trading conditions.A weak global and domestic volume backdrop has compounded rates pressure in the sea and air freight markets.Lower volumes reflects a weaker global consumer and supply chain destocking.

Mainfreight - 1H24 Preview — Destock O'clock

<ul><li>Mainfreight's (MFT) Annual Shareholder Meeting trading update was worse than feared.</li><li>The magnitude of the surprise leads us to revisit our investment case, yet our rating remains OUTPERFORM, underpinned by a number of truths.</li><li> <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Truth #1:</span> MFT is not losing customers, it is winning new customers, though volumes are down materially.</li></ul>

Mainfreight's (MFT) Annual Shareholder Meeting trading update was worse than feared.The magnitude of the surprise leads us to revisit our investment case, yet our rating remains OUTPERFORM, underpinned by a number of truths. Truth #1: MFT is not losing customers, it is winning new customers, though volumes are down materially.

<ul><li>Mainfreight’s (MFT) 68 page semi-annual employee newsletter highlights a heightened focus on quality, network expansion and sustainable growth within the business, but recognition that the year ahead will be more challenging.</li><li>Don Braid, CEO: “In the next 6 to 12 months, we will expect to encounter slowing economic growth in most of the regions where we are located. Some will recover quicker – others not so.</li><li>The next scheduled news flow from MFT will be its Annual Shareholder Meeting and a likely trading update on 27 July 2023</li></ul>

Mainfreight’s (MFT) 68 page semi-annual employee newsletter highlights a heightened focus on quality, network expansion and sustainable growth within the business, but recognition that the year ahead will be more challenging.Don Braid, CEO: “In the next 6 to 12 months, we will expect to encounter slowing economic growth in most of the regions where we are located. Some will recover quicker – others not so.The next scheduled news flow from MFT will be its Annual Shareholder Meeting and a likely trading update on 27 July 2023

Mainfreight: July 2023 Team Newsletter Insights

<ul><li>Mainfreight (MFT) has provided a short trading update in its FY23 Annual Report highlighting challenging trading conditions: “Trading, post result, has continued to show a weakness in volumes and activity.</li><li>Whilst management of overhead cost structures and the implementation of freight rate reviews have been successful, it is expected to be a challenging first six months of trading.</li><li>We currently forecast FY24 PBT to decline -18% against the prior year, broadly consistent with market consensus.</li></ul>

Mainfreight (MFT) has provided a short trading update in its FY23 Annual Report highlighting challenging trading conditions: “Trading, post result, has continued to show a weakness in volumes and activity.Whilst management of overhead cost structures and the implementation of freight rate reviews have been successful, it is expected to be a challenging first six months of trading.We currently forecast FY24 PBT to decline -18% against the prior year, broadly consistent with market consensus.

Mainfreight: Annual Report Trading Update

New Zealand

Mainfreight Limited provides and supplies freight, warehousing and logistics services throughout New Zealand and Australia.  The Company provides freight forwarding services by road, rail, sea and air along with providing international freight forwarding services, customs clearance services and specialized handling of hazardous substances.

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Mainfreight Ltd (MFT NZ)

Mainfreight - 1H24 — Rebasing

Mainfreight's (MFT) 1H24 result appears weak, with profit before tax (PBT) down -42% against the prior year, but follows material overearning in FY23.

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight - 1H24 Preview — Destock O'clock

Mainfreight (MFT) is due to report a material decline in profitability in its 1H24 result on 9 November 2023, due to unfavourable trading conditions.

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight - Bruising

Mainfreight's (MFT) Annual Shareholder Meeting trading update was worse than feared. The magnitude of the surprise leads us to revisit our...

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight: Annual Report Trading Update

Mainfreight (MFT) has provided a short trading update in its FY23 Annual Report highlighting challenging trading conditions: “Trading, post result,...

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Mainfreight - 1H24 — Rebasing

Mainfreight's (MFT) 1H24 result appears weak, with profit before tax (PBT) down -42% against the prior year, but follows material overearning in FY23.

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight - 1H24 Preview — Destock O'clock

Mainfreight (MFT) is due to report a material decline in profitability in its 1H24 result on 9 November 2023, due to unfavourable trading conditions.

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight - Bruising

Mainfreight's (MFT) Annual Shareholder Meeting trading update was worse than feared. The magnitude of the surprise leads us to revisit our...

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight: July 2023 Team Newsletter Insights

Mainfreight’s (MFT) 68 page semi-annual employee newsletter highlights a heightened focus on quality, network expansion and sustainable growth...

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight: Annual Report Trading Update

Mainfreight (MFT) has provided a short trading update in its FY23 Annual Report highlighting challenging trading conditions: “Trading, post result,...

Forsyth Barr