New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), a key international peer for Mainfreight (MFT) operating in the North American less-than-truckload (LTL) market, reported its 1Q26 result overnight with its share price down -~5% at the time of writing.</li><li>The key result read-through for MFT is modestly positive given a weak but sequentially improving volume backdrop in the North American LTL market.</li><li>Moreover, the pricing environment remains rational and is supported by significant yield increases in the truck-load (TL) market assisting a mix shift towards LTL.</li></ul>

Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), a key international peer for Mainfreight (MFT) operating in the North American less-than-truckload (LTL) market, reported its 1Q26 result overnight with its share price down -~5% at the time of writing.The key result read-through for MFT is modestly positive given a weak but sequentially improving volume backdrop in the North American LTL market.Moreover, the pricing environment remains rational and is supported by significant yield increases in the truck-load (TL) market assisting a mix shift towards LTL.

Mainfreight (MFT.NZ) - ODFL Q1 Read-through

<ul><li>DSV (DSV.CO), a key international peer for Mainfreight (MFT), reported its 1Q26 result overnight with its share price down ~-4% on the day.</li><li>The key result read-through for MFT is mixed.</li><li>Other key peer results to look out for this week include: DHL (30 April), and SAIA (30 April).</li></ul>

DSV (DSV.CO), a key international peer for Mainfreight (MFT), reported its 1Q26 result overnight with its share price down ~-4% on the day.The key result read-through for MFT is mixed.Other key peer results to look out for this week include: DHL (30 April), and SAIA (30 April).

Mainfreight (MFT.NZ) - DSV Q1 Read-Through

<ul><li>Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN.S), a key international peer for Mainfreight (MFT), reported its 1Q26 result on Friday.</li><li>Its share price declined -4% on the day.</li><li>Key peer results to look out for this week include DSV (29 April), ODFL (29 April), CH Robinson (29 April), DHL (30 April), and SAIA (30 April).</li></ul>

Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN.S), a key international peer for Mainfreight (MFT), reported its 1Q26 result on Friday.Its share price declined -4% on the day.Key peer results to look out for this week include DSV (29 April), ODFL (29 April), CH Robinson (29 April), DHL (30 April), and SAIA (30 April).

Mainfreight (MFT.NZ) - Kuehne & Nagel Q1 Read-through

<ul><li>Mainfreight’s (MFT) exposure to the fuel price shock is nuanced.</li><li>The pass-through lag has been reduced to one week in its global operations, similar to that in NZ, from one month previously.</li><li>Yet, near term MFT is potentially a modest volume beneficiary given the possible behavioural shift of customers to migrate to just-in-case from just-in-time models.</li></ul>

Mainfreight’s (MFT) exposure to the fuel price shock is nuanced.The pass-through lag has been reduced to one week in its global operations, similar to that in NZ, from one month previously.Yet, near term MFT is potentially a modest volume beneficiary given the possible behavioural shift of customers to migrate to just-in-case from just-in-time models.

Mainfreight Fuel: The Three Biggest Talking Points

<ul><li>We upgrade Mainfreight (MFT) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL, following a softer-than-expected 1H26 result, but one where management provided a more positive outlook, suggesting the company is now through an earnings-cycle inflection point.</li><li>This underlying business improvement is likely to continue into 2H26, driven predominantly by accelerating Australasian activity reflecting new business wins and cyclical green shoots.</li><li>MFT's ability to accelerate profit growth out of a down cycle is due to consistent customer acquisition—often at sub-optimal rates—that are subsequently reset as conditions improve.</li></ul>

We upgrade Mainfreight (MFT) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL, following a softer-than-expected 1H26 result, but one where management provided a more positive outlook, suggesting the company is now through an earnings-cycle inflection point.This underlying business improvement is likely to continue into 2H26, driven predominantly by accelerating Australasian activity reflecting new business wins and cyclical green shoots.MFT's ability to accelerate profit growth out of a down cycle is due to consistent customer acquisition—often at sub-optimal rates—that are subsequently reset as conditions improve.

Mainfreight 1H26—Accelerating Through the Camber

New Zealand

Mainfreight Limited provides and supplies freight, warehousing and logistics services throughout New Zealand and Australia.  The Company provides freight forwarding services by road, rail, sea and air along with providing international freight forwarding services, customs clearance services and specialized handling of hazardous substances.

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Mainfreight Ltd (MFT NZ)

Mainfreight (MFT.NZ) - ODFL Q1 Read-through

Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), a key international peer for Mainfreight (MFT) operating in the North American less-than-truckload (LTL) market,...

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight (MFT.NZ) - DSV Q1 Read-Through

DSV (DSV.CO), a key international peer for Mainfreight (MFT), reported its 1Q26 result overnight with its share price down ~-4% on the day. The...

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight (MFT.NZ) - Kuehne & Nagel Q1 Read-through

Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN.S), a key international peer for Mainfreight (MFT), reported its 1Q26 result on Friday. Its share price declined -4% on...

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight Fuel: The Three Biggest Talking Points

Mainfreight’s (MFT) exposure to the fuel price shock is nuanced. The pass-through lag has been reduced to one week in its global operations,...

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight 1H26—Accelerating Through the Camber

This underlying business improvement is likely to continue into 2H26, driven predominantly by accelerating Australasian activity reflecting new...

Forsyth Barr

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