Global Credit Insights

Sebastian Ashton, CFA

SAA Advisors

Event-Driven

Although Mallinckrodt’s bonds are trading at a significant discount to par, we recommend investors remain side-lined given our assessment of the probability of further price volatility. Although we acknowledge the equity cushion given a conservative EV/EBITDA valuation of ~6x vs. total debt/EBITDA of ~ 5x, we expect continued price volatility.Accordingly, we believe a more attractive entry point will present itself over the coming months at a lower price level. Despite this, we think that the business, or its individual segments, will remain a going concern with an eventual spin-off into separate entities as per management’s plan.However, the issue is timing and we expect further volatility due to legal/regulatory risk which is difficult to quantify

Although Mallinckrodt’s bonds are trading at a significant discount to par, we recommend investors remain side-lined given our assessment of the probability of further price volatility. Although we acknowledge the equity cushion given a conservative EV/EBITDA valuation of ~6x vs. total debt/EBITDA of ~ 5x, we expect continued price volatility.Accordingly, we believe a more attractive entry point will present itself over the coming months at a lower price level. Despite this, we think that the business, or its individual segments, will remain a going concern with an eventual spin-off into separate entities as per management’s plan.However, the issue is timing and we expect further volatility due to legal/regulatory risk which is difficult to quantify

Mallinckrodt – The Volatility Continues?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

As the S&amp;P 500 nears the 2,873 January high - a critical hurdle - short-term Sector leadership changes give us reason for pause. While we remain constructive overall, our expectations are tempered as the market finds itself a crossroad.  In today’s report we provide our U.S. equity strategy synopsis, and also highlight attractive stocks within the Health Care Sector.

As the S&amp;P 500 nears the 2,873 January high - a critical hurdle - short-term Sector leadership changes give us reason for pause. While we remain constructive overall, our expectations are tempered as the market finds itself a crossroad.  In today’s report we provide our U.S. equity strategy synopsis, and also highlight attractive stocks within the Health Care Sector.

S&P 500: Outlook Constructive but Concerns Remain

Public Relations and Social Media Manager, Dechert LLP

Peggy Heffner

Public Relations and Social Media Manager

Dechert is a global specialist law firm

Dechert LLP

Dechert is a global specialist law firm.
Focused on sectors with the greatest complexities, legal intricacies and highest regulatory demands, we excel in delivering practical commercial judgment and deep legal expertise for high-stakes matters.

Our work is widely recognized. We have 20 standout practices noted by Chambers Global, including global-wide rankings for arbitration, corporate investigations, anti-corruption, investment funds and life sciences. Named Antitrust Team of the Year, Chambers USA commends our “accomplished group” as “routinely sought after to handle some of the most significant litigation and transactions in the antitrust world.” 

In an increasingly challenging environment, clients look to us to serve them in ways that are faster, sharper and leaner without compromising excellence. We developed a first-of-its kind legal project management department, which uses technology, people and processes to drive efficiency and deliver value for our clients.

We are innovators. Dechert ranked #7 in the Financial Times’ Top North American Innovative Law Firms. Financial Times also recognizes us among the Top European Innovative Law Firms and highly commends World Compass, our marketing compliance service, which offers investment firms advice in more than 100 jurisdictions.

Non-Reportable ≠ Non-ReviewableAcquisitions of U.S. companies that fall below the $80.8 million Hart-Scott-Rodino (HSR) reporting threshold may pose unique risks to buyers. Unlike HSR reportable transactions, non-reportable transactions typically do not allow for contractual allocation of antitrust risk. The buyer is left shouldering the risk.A recent Federal Trade Commission (FTC) enforcement action confirms that the risk taken by buyers includes not only the possibility that the acquired assets will have to be divested, but also the possibility that the buyer will be forced to disgorge profits earned after the acquisition.For <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14765" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14765:1">Mallinckrodt Plc (MNK US)</a>, the subject of the most recent consummated merger challenge, the disgorgement remedy was $100 million, on top of divestiture of part of the acquired assets.

Non-Reportable ≠ Non-ReviewableAcquisitions of U.S. companies that fall below the $80.8 million Hart-Scott-Rodino (HSR) reporting threshold may pose unique risks to buyers. Unlike HSR reportable transactions, non-reportable transactions typically do not allow for contractual allocation of antitrust risk. The buyer is left shouldering the risk.A recent Federal Trade Commission (FTC) enforcement action confirms that the risk taken by buyers includes not only the possibility that the acquired assets will have to be divested, but also the possibility that the buyer will be forced to disgorge profits earned after the acquisition.For Mallinckrodt Plc (MNK US), the subject of the most recent consummated merger challenge, the disgorgement remedy was $100 million, on top of divestiture of part of the acquired assets.

Antitrust Insights for Smaller US Mergers

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

While the US consumer health industry will remain a strong centre for investment, development and technology innovation in 2017 and is expected to reach US$77 billion by 2021, the election of Donald Trump has created uncertainty among the industry, government agencies and consumers, especially around regulations, local production incentives, and changes to the Affordable Care Act.

While the US consumer health industry will remain a strong centre for investment, development and technology innovation in 2017 and is expected to reach US$77 billion by 2021, the election of Donald Trump has created uncertainty among the industry, government agencies and consumers, especially around regulations, local production incentives, and changes to the Affordable Care Act.

Trump Health Effect: What Is Next for the Consumer Health Industry Under Trump's Leadership?

Pharma/ Biotechnology Investments Specialist, Vasuda Capital Management

Dr. Bhavneesh Sharma, MD, MBA

Pharma/ Biotechnology Investments Specialist

Vasuda Capital Management

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17686" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17686:1">Ziopharm Oncology Inc (ZIOP US)</a> announced impressive survival data for its immune-boosting therapy AD-RTS-hIL-12 + veledimex in recurrent pediatric malignant glioma (a form of deadly brain cancer). Median overall survival almost doubled to 12.8 months vs. currently available therapies. In addition, any toxic effects were reversible on stopping veledimex (which thus acts as a control switch for the therapy). Griffin Securities reissued buy rating with price target of US$21 after the data was…

Ziopharm Oncology Inc (ZIOP US) announced impressive survival data for its immune-boosting therapy AD-RTS-hIL-12 + veledimex in recurrent pediatric malignant glioma (a form of deadly brain cancer). Median overall survival almost doubled to 12.8 months vs. currently available therapies. In addition, any toxic effects were reversible on stopping veledimex (which thus acts as a control switch for the therapy). Griffin Securities reissued buy rating with price target of US$21 after the data was…

Actionable Ideas in the Biotechnology and Pharmaceutical Sectors (Incl. Insider Buying): November 28

United States

Mallinckrodt PLC develops, manufactures and markets specialty pharmaceutical products and diagnostic imaging agents. The Company specializes in the manufacturing of pain management medications. Mallinckrodt offers its products to major wholesalers and retail drug store chains around the world.

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Mallinckrodt Plc (MNK US)

Mallinckrodt – The Volatility Continues?

Although Mallinckrodt’s bonds are trading at a significant discount to par, we recommend investors remain side-lined given our assessment of the...

Sebastian Ashton, CFA

S&P 500: Outlook Constructive but Concerns Remain

As the S&P 500 nears the 2,873 January high - a critical hurdle - short-term Sector leadership changes give us reason for pause. While we...

Vermilion Research

Antitrust Insights for Smaller US Mergers

Non-Reportable ≠ Non-ReviewableAcquisitions of U.S. companies that fall below the $80.8 million Hart-Scott-Rodino (HSR) reporting threshold may...

Dechert LLP

Trump Health Effect: What Is Next for the Consumer Health Industry Under Trump's Leadership?

While the US consumer health industry will remain a strong centre for investment, development and technology innovation in 2017 and is expected to...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Actionable Ideas in the Biotechnology and Pharmaceutical Sectors (Incl. Insider Buying): November 28

Ziopharm Oncology Inc (ZIOP US) announced impressive survival data for its immune-boosting therapy AD-RTS-hIL-12 + veledimex in recurrent pediatric...

Dr. Bhavneesh Sharma, MD, MBA

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