New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Manawa Energy (MNW) has had a weak start to FY25, with 1Q25 hydro generation and acquired wind generation volumes tracking below average.</li><li>All hydro generators are facing challenging conditions, resulting in material increases in the wholesale electricity price outlook.</li><li>We have lowered our FY25 EBITDAF forecast on a lower hydro generation assumption, but lifted later earnings on the stronger wholesale electricity price outlook. OUTPERFORM.</li></ul>

Manawa Energy (MNW) has had a weak start to FY25, with 1Q25 hydro generation and acquired wind generation volumes tracking below average.All hydro generators are facing challenging conditions, resulting in material increases in the wholesale electricity price outlook.We have lowered our FY25 EBITDAF forecast on a lower hydro generation assumption, but lifted later earnings on the stronger wholesale electricity price outlook. OUTPERFORM.

Manawa Energy - Generation Drying Up — 1Q25 Operating Stats

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/electric-power-development-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:292:1" rel="noopener">Electric Power Development C (9513 JP)</a>’s scheme (A$0.275) and off-market takeover offer (A$0.270) fair and reasonable. </li>
<li>The offer is conditional on FIRB and shareholder approval. Skip Capital, which can block the scheme, has not declared its intention regarding J-Power's offer or launched a competing offer.</li>
<li>Skip’s silence suggests a greater probability of accepting the scheme offer. If the scheme fails, the takeover offer, due to its structure and price, caps the downside.</li>
</ul>


The Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU) IE considers Electric Power Development C (9513 JP)’s scheme (A$0.275) and off-market takeover offer (A$0.270) fair and reasonable. 
The offer is conditional on FIRB and shareholder approval. Skip Capital, which can block the scheme, has not declared its intention regarding J-Power's offer or launched a competing offer.
Skip’s silence suggests a greater probability of accepting the scheme offer. If the scheme fails, the takeover offer, due to its structure and price, caps the downside.


Genex Power (GNX AU): Scheme Vote on 16 July as Skip Remains Silent

<ul><li>Manawa Energy (MNW) reported a FY24 EBITDAF result in-line with expectations, but surprised with a final dividend +29% (+2.5cps) ahead of expectations.</li><li>Whilst MNW has not released a new dividend policy, it is evident that it is comfortable holding more debt going forward and believes it can still execute on its development options.</li><li>FY25 guidance below expectations has been offset by our assumption that long-term wholesale electricity prices will be higher, such that we lift our target price +13cps (+2.7%) to NZ$4.93. </li></ul>

Manawa Energy (MNW) reported a FY24 EBITDAF result in-line with expectations, but surprised with a final dividend +29% (+2.5cps) ahead of expectations.Whilst MNW has not released a new dividend policy, it is evident that it is comfortable holding more debt going forward and believes it can still execute on its development options.FY25 guidance below expectations has been offset by our assumption that long-term wholesale electricity prices will be higher, such that we lift our target price +13cps (+2.7%) to NZ$4.93. 

Manawa Energy - Dividend Surprisingly Energised — FY24 Result

<ul><li>Manawa Energy's (MNW) FY24 EBITDAF guidance upgrade (+11% at the midpoint) is encouraging, notwithstanding three of the four factors cited for the upgrade are more one-off in nature and come from favourable 2H24 operating conditions.</li><li>The most positive aspect of the upgrade is the indication MNW has been able to reduce operating costs, which is particularly encouraging given the current inflationary environment.</li><li>We have increased our target price +25cps (+6.7%) to NZ$3.95 with the earnings upgrades also enabling a dividend increase. </li></ul>

Manawa Energy's (MNW) FY24 EBITDAF guidance upgrade (+11% at the midpoint) is encouraging, notwithstanding three of the four factors cited for the upgrade are more one-off in nature and come from favourable 2H24 operating conditions.The most positive aspect of the upgrade is the indication MNW has been able to reduce operating costs, which is particularly encouraging given the current inflationary environment.We have increased our target price +25cps (+6.7%) to NZ$3.95 with the earnings upgrades also enabling a dividend increase. 

Manawa Energy - Trading Energises Earnings

<ul><li>Capex guidance cuts and more projects were the main features of Manawa Energy's (MNW) 1H24 result.</li><li>Revised capex guidance effectively reversed the capex increases from six months ago, enabling us to reverse our divided reductions and lift our target price +13cps (+3.7%) to NZ$3.60.</li><li>The result itself was a moderate miss with revenue lower than estimated. </li></ul>

Capex guidance cuts and more projects were the main features of Manawa Energy's (MNW) 1H24 result.Revised capex guidance effectively reversed the capex increases from six months ago, enabling us to reverse our divided reductions and lift our target price +13cps (+3.7%) to NZ$3.60.The result itself was a moderate miss with revenue lower than estimated. 

Manawa Energy - Capex Reversal — 1H24 Result

New Zealand

Manawa Energy Limited is a renewable energy company. The Company generate powers through hydro power stations and wind farms throughout Australasia. Manawa Energy is also engaged in electricity distribution.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Manawa Energy Ltd (MNW NZ)

Manawa Energy - Generation Drying Up — 1Q25 Operating Stats

Manawa Energy (MNW) has had a weak start to FY25, with 1Q25 hydro generation and acquired wind generation volumes tracking below average.

Forsyth Barr

Genex Power (GNX AU): Scheme Vote on 16 July as Skip Remains Silent

Skip’s silence suggests a greater probability of accepting the scheme. The takeover offer caps the downside due to structure and price. The gross...

Arun George

Manawa Energy - Dividend Surprisingly Energised — FY24 Result

Manawa Energy (MNW) reported a FY24 EBITDAF result in-line with expectations, but surprised with a final dividend +29% (+2.5cps) ahead of...

Forsyth Barr

Manawa Energy - Trading Energises Earnings

Nevertheless, we still view MNW as expensive relative to most of its peers and it is still some way off reaching a final investment decision on its...

Forsyth Barr

Manawa Energy - Capex Reversal — 1H24 Result

Capex guidance cuts and more projects were the main features of Manawa Energy's (MNW) 1H24 result. Revised capex guidance effectively reversed...

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)