Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>WTI swung daily as shifting U.S.-Iran signals repeatedly changed the risk premium, while a record inventory build briefly pressured prices before renewed sanctions fears.</li>
<li>WTI options volatility fell while managed money added longs and cut shorts, pointing to improving bullish conviction despite continued demand for downside protection.</li>
<li>Energy ETFs attracted broad inflows, while VLO offered the cleanest exposure to a distillate-led refining rally despite a sharp valuation re-rating.</li>
</ul>


WTI swung daily as shifting U.S.-Iran signals repeatedly changed the risk premium, while a record inventory build briefly pressured prices before renewed sanctions fears.
WTI options volatility fell while managed money added longs and cut shorts, pointing to improving bullish conviction despite continued demand for downside protection.
Energy ETFs attracted broad inflows, while VLO offered the cleanest exposure to a distillate-led refining rally despite a sharp valuation re-rating.


Energy Weekly (W/E 14/Aug): Hormuz Drives Oil Volatility, Positioning Improves, Valero Extends Rally

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) reported their third quarter 2025 financial results highlighting continued robust cash generation, strategic progress in refining operations, and supply-demand dynamics influencing their outlook.</li><li>The quarter saw MPC execute planned refinery turnarounds with a utilization rate of 95%, translating to a strong capture rate of 96% despite market-driven headwinds.</li><li>Year-to-date capture improved to 102% compared to 95% in the previous year, underscoring MPC's ability to achieve favorable outcomes in varying market conditions.</li></ul>

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) reported their third quarter 2025 financial results highlighting continued robust cash generation, strategic progress in refining operations, and supply-demand dynamics influencing their outlook.The quarter saw MPC execute planned refinery turnarounds with a utilization rate of 95%, translating to a strong capture rate of 96% despite market-driven headwinds.Year-to-date capture improved to 102% compared to 95% in the previous year, underscoring MPC's ability to achieve favorable outcomes in varying market conditions.

Marathon Petroleum: Growth of Midstream Operations & Contribution to Stable Cash Flows & Shareholder Returns!

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>50-Day MAs have held on SPX and QQQ, but we are concerned of a prolonged consolidation -- particularly as crude oil, gasoline (UGA), and Energy (XLE) appear to have bottomed.</li>
<li>QQQ/Technology remains our primary concern; we continue to believe a consolidation through mid-to-late-August is likely amid ongoing choppy price action for semiconductors (SOXX), memory (DRAM), and optical equipment/photonics (EUV) names</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).
50-Day MAs have held on SPX and QQQ, but we are concerned of a prolonged consolidation -- particularly as crude oil, gasoline (UGA), and Energy (XLE) appear to have bottomed.
QQQ/Technology remains our primary concern; we continue to believe a consolidation through mid-to-late-August is likely amid ongoing choppy price action for semiconductors (SOXX), memory (DRAM), and optical equipment/photonics (EUV) names


Energy (XLE), Crude Oil, and Gasoline Prices Climbing; A Bull Market Until Proven Otherwise

<ul>
<li>The Hormuz blockade turned a crude shock into a product crisis; jet fuel doubled, distillate crack spreads hit 2022 highs, and U.S. Gulf Coast refiners ran at record utilisation.</li>
<li>U.S. refiners capitalised on global disruption, ramping utilisation and exports while Asian and European peers cut runs due to crude shortages.</li>
<li>U.S. refiners’ revenue to rise but EPS faces near-term pressure as crude cost inflation, hedge losses, and timing mismatches mean true margin capture likely shifts to Q2–Q3 2026.</li>
</ul>


The Hormuz blockade turned a crude shock into a product crisis; jet fuel doubled, distillate crack spreads hit 2022 highs, and U.S. Gulf Coast refiners ran at record utilisation.
U.S. refiners capitalised on global disruption, ramping utilisation and exports while Asian and European peers cut runs due to crude shortages.
U.S. refiners’ revenue to rise but EPS faces near-term pressure as crude cost inflation, hedge losses, and timing mismatches mean true margin capture likely shifts to Q2–Q3 2026.


The Refiner's Edge: How the War in Iran Aids U.S. Refining

<ul>
<li>We are officially downgrading our outlook to bearish with the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) violating major support at 6480-6520, NQ violating 24,000, and Russell 2000 (IWM) breaking below crucial $245 support.</li>
<li>This comes after downgrading our outlook to neutral in our 3/3/26 Compass.</li>
<li>We view this latest rally as a selling opportunity at resistance at 6480-6520 and the 200-day MA</li>
</ul>


We are officially downgrading our outlook to bearish with the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) violating major support at 6480-6520, NQ violating 24,000, and Russell 2000 (IWM) breaking below crucial $245 support.
This comes after downgrading our outlook to neutral in our 3/3/26 Compass.
We view this latest rally as a selling opportunity at resistance at 6480-6520 and the 200-day MA


Downgrading Outlook to Bearish; Stay Defensive; $SPX Rally a Selling Opportunity?

United States

Marathon Petroleum Corporation refines, transports, and markets petroleum products. The Company sells its products to resellers and consumers in the mid-west, gulf coast, and southeast United States.

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Marathon Petroleum (MPC US)

Energy Weekly (W/E 14/Aug): Hormuz Drives Oil Volatility, Positioning Improves, Valero Extends Rally

WTI remains caught between a volatile geopolitical premium and improving speculative positioning, while strong distillate margins keep Valero’s...

Mint Finance

Marathon Petroleum: Growth of Midstream Operations & Contribution to Stable Cash Flows & Shareholder Returns!

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) reported their third quarter 2025 financial results highlighting continued robust cash generation, strategic...

Baptista Research

Energy (XLE), Crude Oil, and Gasoline Prices Climbing; A Bull Market Until Proven Otherwise

Energy $XLE, Crude Oil, and Gasoline Prices Climbing; A Bull Market Until Proven Otherwise; Tech remains a concern, and we believe consolidation...

Vermilion Research

The Refiner's Edge: How the War in Iran Aids U.S. Refining

The Hormuz blockade led to a product crisis, with U.S. refiners capitalizing on global disruption while facing near-term EPS pressure due to crude...

Mint Finance

Downgrading Outlook to Bearish; Stay Defensive; $SPX Rally a Selling Opportunity?

Downgrading Outlook to Bearish; Stay Defensive; Latest $SPX Rally Likely to Roll Over Here at 6480-6520 or 200-day MA resistance

Vermilion Research

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52-week Range

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Energy Weekly (W/E 14/Aug): Hormuz Drives Oil Volatility, Positioning Improves, Valero Extends Rally

WTI remains caught between a volatile geopolitical premium and improving speculative positioning, while strong distillate margins keep Valero’s...

Mint Finance

Marathon Petroleum: Growth of Midstream Operations & Contribution to Stable Cash Flows & Shareholder Returns!

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) reported their third quarter 2025 financial results highlighting continued robust cash generation, strategic...

Baptista Research

Energy (XLE), Crude Oil, and Gasoline Prices Climbing; A Bull Market Until Proven Otherwise

Energy $XLE, Crude Oil, and Gasoline Prices Climbing; A Bull Market Until Proven Otherwise; Tech remains a concern, and we believe consolidation...

Vermilion Research

The Refiner's Edge: How the War in Iran Aids U.S. Refining

​The Hormuz blockade led to a product crisis, with U.S. refiners capitalizing on global disruption while facing near-term EPS pressure due to crude...

Mint Finance

Downgrading Outlook to Bearish; Stay Defensive; $SPX Rally a Selling Opportunity?

Downgrading Outlook to Bearish; Stay Defensive; Latest $SPX Rally Likely to Roll Over Here at 6480-6520 or 200-day MA resistance

Vermilion Research

The Hormuz blockade led to a product crisis, with U.S. refiners capitalizing on global disruption while facing near-term EPS pressure due to crude...