Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

Marriott International / Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>This is our first report on hospitality behemoth, Marriott International, Inc., arguably one of the worst-affected companies by the Covid-19 pandemic.</li><li>The company’s business in its 3 biggest markets – the U.S., Canada, and China has been severely hit and the recovery process has been relatively slow.</li><li>The slow recovery in RevPAR and ADR in the recent results has brought about a correction in the stock price.</li></ul>

This is our first report on hospitality behemoth, Marriott International, Inc., arguably one of the worst-affected companies by the Covid-19 pandemic.The company’s business in its 3 biggest markets – the U.S., Canada, and China has been severely hit and the recovery process has been relatively slow.The slow recovery in RevPAR and ADR in the recent results has brought about a correction in the stock price.

Marriott International Inc. - Investment Thesis

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>The Kerry Group has been busy of late.</p>
<p>Back in December, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:367:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK)</a> IPO'ed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-express-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29253:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB)</a> as discussed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sumeet-singh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4" rel="noopener">Sumeet Singh</a> in <em><a href="https://skr.ma/uGPdd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kerry Express Thailand IPO - Time for Delivery</a></em>.</p>
<p>Last month <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3320:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Properties (683 HK)</a> ("KPL") and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-logistics-network-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:367:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK)</a> ("KLN") <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0210/2021021000043.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a pre-conditional Partial Offer from  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a>.  This is an ongoing transaction - see <em><a href="https://skr.ma/D9RK7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kerry Logistics (636 HK): SF Holdings' Pre-Conditional Partial Offer</a></em>. KLN announced last night the composite document has been <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0308/2021030801425.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">delayed</a> potentially up to the 16 August 201. </p>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shangri-la-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19690:1" rel="noopener">Shangri-La Asia (69 HK)</a>, majority-owned by the Kerry Group, is well up on its March 2020 COVID low, and up 9.5% YTD.  Around half of its hotels are in China, which have witnessed a strong uptick in local leisure and corporate traveling, generating positive EBITDA as early as June last year, the first time since the first outbreak of the pandemic.</div>
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<div>Currently trading at 0.6x P/B against a pre-COVID average multiple of 0.8x., this is worth a second look.</div>
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<div>More below the fold.</div>

The Kerry Group has been busy of late.
Back in December, Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) IPO'ed Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB) as discussed by Sumeet Singh in Kerry Express Thailand IPO - Time for Delivery.
Last month Kerry Properties (683 HK) ("KPL") and Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK) ("KLN") announced a pre-conditional Partial Offer from  S.F. Holding (002352 CH).  This is an ongoing transaction - see Kerry Logistics (636 HK): SF Holdings' Pre-Conditional Partial Offer. KLN announced last night the composite document has been delayed potentially up to the 16 August 201. 

Shangri-La Asia (69 HK), majority-owned by the Kerry Group, is well up on its March 2020 COVID low, and up 9.5% YTD.  Around half of its hotels are in China, which have witnessed a strong uptick in local leisure and corporate traveling, generating positive EBITDA as early as June last year, the first time since the first outbreak of the pandemic.

Currently trading at 0.6x P/B against a pre-COVID average multiple of 0.8x., this is worth a second look.

More below the fold.

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<div><p>So much for a slow week...lot of online advertising newsflow we wanted to comment on.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div></div></div>

So much for a slow week...lot of online advertising newsflow we wanted to comment on.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

TMT (Mid) Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out: Twitter, FB>Google, and TikTok

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<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<p>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-hldgs-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Hldgs (JM SP)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-strategic-hldgs-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15081:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Strategic Hldgs (JS SP)</a> ratio is back down to its long-term average - yet JM has ample room for more buybacks; and JS may still privatise <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-intl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental Intl (MAND SP)</a>.</p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on Jardine and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a> are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...



The Jardine Matheson Hldgs (JM SP) / Jardine Strategic Hldgs (JS SP) ratio is back down to its long-term average - yet JM has ample room for more buybacks; and JS may still privatise Mandarin Oriental Intl (MAND SP).



Preceding my comments on Jardine and Naspers (NPN SJ) / Prosus (PRX NA) are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.


These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.





StubWorld: The Jardine Maths Over Strategic

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Marriott International / Technical Analysis

<p>We first began highlighting Group CD-20 Hotels &amp; Resorts, Large/Mid-Cap in our 2/20/19 <em>Compass</em>, noting that the Group displayed bottoming price and RS and that it was a timely opportunity to add exposure. The Group has only improved since and, with this sustained price and RS improvement, we have been waiting for an attractive pullback opportunity in order to take advantage of what we believe is just the beginning of a much larger upside move. We believe that attractive pullback opportunity is now. In today’s report we highlight four of our favorite setups within the Group -- add exposure. Stocks highlighted include: Marriott International (<strong>MAR</strong>), Hilton Worldwide (<strong>HLT</strong>), Wyndham Hotels &amp; Resorts (<strong>WH</strong>), and Choice Hotels (<strong>CHH</strong>).</p>

We first began highlighting Group CD-20 Hotels &amp; Resorts, Large/Mid-Cap in our 2/20/19 Compass, noting that the Group displayed bottoming price and RS and that it was a timely opportunity to add exposure. The Group has only improved since and, with this sustained price and RS improvement, we have been waiting for an attractive pullback opportunity in order to take advantage of what we believe is just the beginning of a much larger upside move. We believe that attractive pullback opportunity is now. In today’s report we highlight four of our favorite setups within the Group -- add exposure. Stocks highlighted include: Marriott International (MAR), Hilton Worldwide (HLT), Wyndham Hotels &amp; Resorts (WH), and Choice Hotels (CHH).

Actionable Pullback Opportunities Within Hotels & Resorts; It’s Time to Check In.

United States

Marriott International Inc. is a worldwide operator and franchisor of hotels. The Company franchises lodging facilities and vacation timesharing resorts under various brand names. Marriott also provides services to home and condominium owner associations for projects associated with several of its brands.

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Marriott International (MAR US)

Marriott International Inc. - Investment Thesis

This is our first report on hospitality behemoth, Marriott International, Inc., arguably one of the worst-affected companies by the Covid-19...

Baptista Research

Shangri-La Asia (69 HK): Stay Safe

Based on the average price to book - pre-COVID - I would expect around 33% upside from here, or HK$10.80/share, where it traded as recently as May...

David Blennerhassett

TMT (Mid) Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out: Twitter, FB>Google, and TikTok

So much for a slow week...lot of online advertising newsflow we wanted to comment on.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular...

Aaron Gabin

StubWorld: The Jardine Maths Over Strategic

This week in StubWorld ... The Jardine Matheson Hldgs (JM SP) / Jardine Strategic Hldgs (JS SP) ratio is back down to its long-term average -...

David Blennerhassett

Actionable Pullback Opportunities Within Hotels & Resorts; It’s Time to Check In.

We first began highlighting Group CD-20 Hotels & Resorts, Large/Mid-Cap in our 2/20/19 Compass, noting that the Group displayed bottoming price...

Vermilion Research

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