Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/first-pacific-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:173:1" rel="noopener">First Pacific Co (142 HK)</a></strong>'s 49.9%-held MPIC is spinning off Maynilad, a distributor of potable water and provider of sewage services, on the Philippine exchange.</li>
<li>The IPO has been priced at PHP 15/share, down 25% from earlier expectations. Proceeds <em>may</em> reach PHP 34bn (~US$580mn), in the largest Filipino IPO since 2021. </li>
<li>First Pac's NAV discount has drifted off a recent multi-year narrowing, but remains elevated for a multiple cross-border, difficult to short holdco.</li>
</ul>



First Pacific Co (142 HK)'s 49.9%-held MPIC is spinning off Maynilad, a distributor of potable water and provider of sewage services, on the Philippine exchange.
The IPO has been priced at PHP 15/share, down 25% from earlier expectations. Proceeds may reach PHP 34bn (~US$580mn), in the largest Filipino IPO since 2021. 
First Pac's NAV discount has drifted off a recent multi-year narrowing, but remains elevated for a multiple cross-border, difficult to short holdco.


First Pacific (142 HK): Maynilad's IPO Price Firmed

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Maynilad Water Services / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maynilad-water-services-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44852:1" rel="noopener">Maynilad Water Services (MYNLD PH)</a> (MWS) is looking to raise around US$450m in its upcoming Philippines IPO.</li>
<li>MWS is a leading global water utility player operating the largest concession by population served within a single concession area in the Philippines and Southeast Asia (SEA), as per GlobalData.</li>
<li>We have looked at the past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing</li>
</ul>



Maynilad Water Services (MYNLD PH) (MWS) is looking to raise around US$450m in its upcoming Philippines IPO.
MWS is a leading global water utility player operating the largest concession by population served within a single concession area in the Philippines and Southeast Asia (SEA), as per GlobalData.
We have looked at the past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing


Maynilad Water Services IPO - Recent Updates, Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Grasberg shock: Force majeure after mudflow cuts ~3% global supply; 50–60kt/month at risk; copper jumped to $10,300/t, near 2024 highs.</li>
<li>Asian impact: Indonesia’s downstream push stalls; Chinese smelters squeezed by collapsing TCs; Japanese/Korean smelters face higher costs; miners and traders gain leverage.</li>
<li>Winners: +$1,000/t adds ~6–8% EBITDA for Zijin, ~5–7% for Jiangxi; Japanese majors 15–45% exposed; Mitsui/Marubeni gain 0.5–2% via mine stakes/trading.</li>
</ul>


Grasberg shock: Force majeure after mudflow cuts ~3% global supply; 50–60kt/month at risk; copper jumped to $10,300/t, near 2024 highs.
Asian impact: Indonesia’s downstream push stalls; Chinese smelters squeezed by collapsing TCs; Japanese/Korean smelters face higher costs; miners and traders gain leverage.
Winners: +$1,000/t adds ~6–8% EBITDA for Zijin, ~5–7% for Jiangxi; Japanese majors 15–45% exposed; Mitsui/Marubeni gain 0.5–2% via mine stakes/trading.


Copper Tightens: Grasberg Disruption Pushes Market Toward $11k–13k/T

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Earnings Growth: Non-resource engines (Food, FamilyMart, ICT, Textiles) compounding at double-digit rates; mid- to high-single-digit EPS growth outlook.</li>
<li>Valuation: Trades at ~13× FY2026E P/E, in line with peers, offering steady TSR without a valuation premium.</li>
<li>Capital Returns: ¥200/share dividend + ¥150 bn buybacks underpin 40–50% payout; EPS uplift from share reduction.</li>
</ul>


Earnings Growth: Non-resource engines (Food, FamilyMart, ICT, Textiles) compounding at double-digit rates; mid- to high-single-digit EPS growth outlook.
Valuation: Trades at ~13× FY2026E P/E, in line with peers, offering steady TSR without a valuation premium.
Capital Returns: ¥200/share dividend + ¥150 bn buybacks underpin 40–50% payout; EPS uplift from share reduction.


Itochu (8001 JP) — Structural Growth, Fair Valuation, Solid TSR

<ul>
<li>Copper earnings leverage: Equity-method stakes in Collahuasi and Anglo Sur mean every +10% copper move adds ~¥25–30 bn net income (~3% EPS), giving Mitsui underappreciated upside torque.</li>
<li>LNG stability &amp; cash flows: Long-term contracts in Mozambique, Cameron, Qatar, and Sakhalin underpin resilient earnings and support ¥400 bn annual buybacks (~5% equity).</li>
<li>Valuation: P/B discount vs Itochu has closed (~1.1× each), but Berkshire’s ≥10% stake enforces capital discipline; TSR outlook is 6–9% CAGR through FY28, with copper strength providing double-digit upside.</li>
</ul>


Copper earnings leverage: Equity-method stakes in Collahuasi and Anglo Sur mean every +10% copper move adds ~¥25–30 bn net income (~3% EPS), giving Mitsui underappreciated upside torque.
LNG stability &amp; cash flows: Long-term contracts in Mozambique, Cameron, Qatar, and Sakhalin underpin resilient earnings and support ¥400 bn annual buybacks (~5% equity).
Valuation: P/B discount vs Itochu has closed (~1.1× each), but Berkshire’s ≥10% stake enforces capital discipline; TSR outlook is 6–9% CAGR through FY28, with copper strength providing double-digit upside.


Mitsui & Co. (8031.T): Copper-LNG Torque Driving a Rerating

Japan

Marubeni Corporation is a trading company with business divisions in iron & steel, information technology, utility & infrastructure, energy, food, metals & mineral resources, development & construction, and chemicals.  The Company markets its products globally through a network of sales offices and representative firms.

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Marubeni Corp (8002 JP)

First Pacific (142 HK): Maynilad's IPO Price Firmed

First Pac's NAV discount is elevated for a multiple cross-border, difficult to short holdco. Maynilad's IPO was priced below expectations. Plus the...

David Blennerhassett

Maynilad Water Services IPO - Recent Updates, Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation

Maynilad Water Services (MYNLD PH) (MWS) is looking to raise around US$450m in its upcoming Philippines IPO. In this note, we talk about the IPO...

Sumeet Singh

Copper Tightens: Grasberg Disruption Pushes Market Toward $11k–13k/T

Grasberg mudflow cuts global copper supply, prices soar, Asian downstream industry impacted, winners include Zijin and Jiangxi.

Rahul Jain

Itochu (8001 JP) — Structural Growth, Fair Valuation, Solid TSR

Article highlights strong earnings growth in non-resource sectors, steady valuation in line with peers, and significant capital returns through...

Rahul Jain

Mitsui & Co. (8031.T): Copper-LNG Torque Driving a Rerating

Mitsui's copper earnings leverage and LNG stability drive underappreciated upside potential, supported by resilient cash flows and strong...

Rahul Jain

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

First Pacific (142 HK): Maynilad's IPO Price Firmed

First Pac's NAV discount is elevated for a multiple cross-border, difficult to short holdco. Maynilad's IPO was priced below expectations. Plus the...

David Blennerhassett

Maynilad Water Services IPO - Recent Updates, Peer Comparison and Thoughts on Valuation

Maynilad Water Services (MYNLD PH) (MWS) is looking to raise around US$450m in its upcoming Philippines IPO. In this note, we talk about the IPO...

Sumeet Singh

Copper Tightens: Grasberg Disruption Pushes Market Toward $11k–13k/T

​Grasberg mudflow cuts global copper supply, prices soar, Asian downstream industry impacted, winners include Zijin and Jiangxi.

Rahul Jain

Itochu (8001 JP) — Structural Growth, Fair Valuation, Solid TSR

​Article highlights strong earnings growth in non-resource sectors, steady valuation in line with peers, and significant capital returns through...

Rahul Jain

Mitsui & Co. (8031.T): Copper-LNG Torque Driving a Rerating

​Mitsui's copper earnings leverage and LNG stability drive underappreciated upside potential, supported by resilient cash flows and strong...

Rahul Jain

Grasberg mudflow cuts global copper supply, prices soar, Asian downstream industry impacted, winners include Zijin and Jiangxi.

Article highlights strong earnings growth in non-resource sectors, steady valuation in line with peers, and significant capital returns through...

Mitsui's copper earnings leverage and LNG stability drive underappreciated upside potential, supported by resilient cash flows and strong...