Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On Friday after the close, after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marumae-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16671:1" rel="noopener">Marumae Co Ltd (6264 JP)</a> shares rose 11% to a record high, the company announced a large primary and secondary offering.</li>
<li>The company and the CEO will sell up to 4.14mm shares including greenshoe against 25.4mm shares out now and 11+mm shares of Max Real World Float.</li>
<li>The company is growing this year after last year's mid-year acquisition of KMAC from JIP. The goal is ¥25bn of sales at 22-23% OPM in Aug28. But it's big.</li>
</ul>


On Friday after the close, after Marumae Co Ltd (6264 JP) shares rose 11% to a record high, the company announced a large primary and secondary offering.
The company and the CEO will sell up to 4.14mm shares including greenshoe against 25.4mm shares out now and 11+mm shares of Max Real World Float.
The company is growing this year after last year's mid-year acquisition of KMAC from JIP. The goal is ¥25bn of sales at 22-23% OPM in Aug28. But it's big.


[Japan Offering] Marumae (6264 JP) - A Big Opportunistic Offering to Sell Shares at 3+x Revs

Research Coverage of Japanese Listed Companies, Shared Research Inc

Shared Research

Research Coverage of Japanese Listed Companies

Shared Research Inc

Pioneering research coverage of Japanese listed companies. Now customizable and interactive for global institutional investors. Corporate access reimagined.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The company reported sales of JPY7.3bn, operating profit of JPY1.5bn, and net income of JPY940mn, with no YoY data.</li><li>Transitioned to consolidated financial reporting in Q3 FY08/25, adding a Functional Materials segment, primarily operated by KMAC.</li><li>Announced consolidated earnings forecast for FY08/25: sales JPY11.3bn, operating profit JPY1.9bn, and net income JPY1.3bn.</li></ul>

The company reported sales of JPY7.3bn, operating profit of JPY1.5bn, and net income of JPY940mn, with no YoY data.Transitioned to consolidated financial reporting in Q3 FY08/25, adding a Functional Materials segment, primarily operated by KMAC.Announced consolidated earnings forecast for FY08/25: sales JPY11.3bn, operating profit JPY1.9bn, and net income JPY1.3bn.

Marumae Co Ltd (6264 JP): Q3 FY08/25 flash update

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/143/669/original/2020-07-01_05-28-36.png?1593548938" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="143669"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/143/673/original/2020-07-01_06-01-59.png?1593550949" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="143673"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>WASTE NOT.</strong>.- Waste treatment company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiseki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2330:1" rel="noopener">Daiseki (9793 JP)</a>'s first-quarter results saw Net Income decline by 17% on a 1% decline in sales. However, the 19% and 24% cuts to both Operating and Net Income for the first half and full-year highlight the current decline in industrial activity in Japan is likely to be prolonged and, possibly, similar to that seen in 2009. The outlook for Daiseki's listed subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiseki-eco-solution-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13776:1" rel="noopener">Daiseki Eco. Solution (1712 JP)</a> is equally subdued.  Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-display-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8280:1" rel="noopener">Japan Display (6740 JP)</a> annual losses 'improved' to only ¥101 billion at the net level on ¥504 billion in sales, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pasona-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15778:1" rel="noopener">Pasona (2168 JP)</a> revised down the soon-to-be-declared FY2020 Net Income by 66% relative to TTM on further Anime theme park write-offs. LCD/SPE specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marumae-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16671:1" rel="noopener">Marumae (6264 JP)</a> produced the best results of the day driven by a 38% year-on-year increase in quarterly sales.</p>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
<hr>
</div><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>21 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 6 Positive / 3 Neutral / 12 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong>-3.2</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> +0.2% Quarter YoY / -5.9% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change</strong>: 0.0ppt</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>13 Annual • 8 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 4 Positive / 2 Neutral / 7 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 2 Positive / 1 Neutral / 5 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -5.6</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Japan Analytics
WASTE NOT..- Waste treatment company Daiseki (9793 JP)'s first-quarter results saw Net Income decline by 17% on a 1% decline in sales. However, the 19% and 24% cuts to both Operating and Net Income for the first half and full-year highlight the current decline in industrial activity in Japan is likely to be prolonged and, possibly, similar to that seen in 2009. The outlook for Daiseki's listed subsidiary Daiseki Eco. Solution (1712 JP) is equally subdued.  Meanwhile, Japan Display (6740 JP) annual losses 'improved' to only ¥101 billion at the net level on ¥504 billion in sales, while Pasona (2168 JP) revised down the soon-to-be-declared FY2020 Net Income by 66% relative to TTM on further Anime theme park write-offs. LCD/SPE specialist Marumae (6264 JP) produced the best results of the day driven by a 38% year-on-year increase in quarterly sales.

DAILY STATS

21 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 6 Positive / 3 Neutral / 12 Negative

Average Results Score Change:-3.2

Average % Change in Revenue: +0.2% Quarter YoY / -5.9% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: 0.0ppt
 13 Annual • 8 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 4 Positive / 2 Neutral / 7 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 2 Positive / 1 Neutral / 5 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -5.6


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 30th June - Waste Not..

Event-Driven

<p>There are seven stocks which were promoted/reassigned from TSE2, MOTHERS, and JASDAQ in November 2018 leading to the same seven stocks being included in TOPIX at the end of December. </p>
<p>A couple are decently largecap. Most are smaller.</p>
<p>A good question to ask when looking at these stocks might be... W<em>hat Really Happens Around TOPIX Inclusions?</em></p>
<p>Having traded them for much of the last 20yrs, I had my hypotheses, and had done studies over the years for my own purposes, but I had not done a study recently.  To check my personal hypotheses I tested 340+ TOPIX inclusions over the past five years. </p>
<p>There are patterns to the history of trading these events which are worth a look. Some of the patterns are reasonably interesting.</p>

There are seven stocks which were promoted/reassigned from TSE2, MOTHERS, and JASDAQ in November 2018 leading to the same seven stocks being included in TOPIX at the end of December. 
A couple are decently largecap. Most are smaller.
A good question to ask when looking at these stocks might be... What Really Happens Around TOPIX Inclusions?
Having traded them for much of the last 20yrs, I had my hypotheses, and had done studies over the years for my own purposes, but I had not done a study recently.  To check my personal hypotheses I tested 340+ TOPIX inclusions over the past five years. 
There are patterns to the history of trading these events which are worth a look. Some of the patterns are reasonably interesting.

Historical TOPIX Inclusions:  How Do They Do Around Inclusion Date?

Japan

Marumae Co.,Ltd. manufactures and markets parts for liquid crystal display (LCD) manufacturing machines.  The Company also manufactures parts for equipment used to produce semiconductors and solar batteries.

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Marumae Co Ltd (6264 JP)

[Japan Offering] Marumae (6264 JP) - A Big Opportunistic Offering to Sell Shares at 3+x Revs

Small-cap SPE supplier (products for etch, sputtering, CVD, FPDs) Marumae bought aluminum specialist KMAC in early 2025 with debt. The stock is way...

Travis Lundy