Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). Bulls remain firmly in control</li>
<li>We want to buy pullbacks to the 20-day MA or 21-day EMA on the SPX, QQQ, and IWM, however infrequent they may be (expecting ~1 test per month)</li>
<li>We highlight several attractive semiconductors to buy on any pullbacks: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MU, AMD, INTC, TXN, ADI, MRVL, IFNNY, MPWR, NXPI, ASX, MCHP, STM, ON, UMC, LSCC, and SWKS</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). Bulls remain firmly in control
We want to buy pullbacks to the 20-day MA or 21-day EMA on the SPX, QQQ, and IWM, however infrequent they may be (expecting ~1 test per month)
We highlight several attractive semiconductors to buy on any pullbacks: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MU, AMD, INTC, TXN, ADI, MRVL, IFNNY, MPWR, NXPI, ASX, MCHP, STM, ON, UMC, LSCC, and SWKS


Downgrading Manufacturing to Market Weight; Semiconductor Buys: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MU, AMD, and More

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Co-Packaged optics delivers real power savings, but removing the DSP transfers signal integrity, thermal management, and yield risk from a correctable chip onto the physical assembly; a less forgiving environment.</li>
<li>CPO adds irreplacibility as another constraint, turning a $300 module swap into a potential scrap event on a high-value assembly. This makes yield (and testing) the defining economic constraint.</li>
<li>The $20 billion by 2036 CPO market is not in dispute. But the investment opportunities are not uniformly distributed, spread across packaging, thermal architecture, and test infrastructure.  </li>
</ul>


Co-Packaged optics delivers real power savings, but removing the DSP transfers signal integrity, thermal management, and yield risk from a correctable chip onto the physical assembly; a less forgiving environment.
CPO adds irreplacibility as another constraint, turning a $300 module swap into a potential scrap event on a high-value assembly. This makes yield (and testing) the defining economic constraint.
The $20 billion by 2036 CPO market is not in dispute. But the investment opportunities are not uniformly distributed, spread across packaging, thermal architecture, and test infrastructure.  


[Part 1] Co-Packaged Optics: The Case For, and the Fine Print

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

<ul><li>Broadcom had a strong quarter with strong guidance, including a doubling of AI revenue next year</li><li>CEO Hock Tan was in fine form, making fun of analysts and exuding confidence in the company's performance</li><li>CFO provided detailed explanations on margins and business strategies, showing a realistic and confident outlook for the future</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Broadcom had a strong quarter with strong guidance, including a doubling of AI revenue next yearCEO Hock Tan was in fine form, making fun of analysts and exuding confidence in the company's performanceCFO provided detailed explanations on margins and business strategies, showing a realistic and confident outlook for the futureThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Ep 155: Broadcom/Marvell Earnings, Copper to Fiber, and Apple News!

AI and Energy Infrastructure, Explained Plainly, The Physical Layer

The Physical Layer

AI and Energy Infrastructure, Explained Plainly

A journal on the physical constraints behind the AI buildout: power, grid connection, data centres, cooling and the supply chains that gate them. Written to be understood by anyone.

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul><li>Almost every advanced AI chip, whoever designs it, is made by one company, TSMC, mostly in Taiwan.</li><li>Its chief executive says those factories, not electricity, are what limits AI today, and the company's own numbers show why: a new chip factory takes years to build and more years to fill.</li><li>That is a fair point, and it changes how long I think the chip side of the shortage lasts.</li></ul>

Almost every advanced AI chip, whoever designs it, is made by one company, TSMC, mostly in Taiwan.Its chief executive says those factories, not electricity, are what limits AI today, and the company's own numbers show why: a new chip factory takes years to build and more years to fill.That is a fair point, and it changes how long I think the chip side of the shortage lasts.

TSMC's chief says the AI bottleneck is its factories, not the power grid

<ul><li>Broadcom makes the switch chips that let thousands of AI processors work as one machine, whoever made the processors.</li><li>It also designs the custom AI chips that Google, Meta, OpenAI and others are building to rely less on Nvidia.</li><li>So whichever way the biggest buyers turn, the work runs through Broadcom, and the risk sits with a handful of very powerful customers.</li></ul>

Broadcom makes the switch chips that let thousands of AI processors work as one machine, whoever made the processors.It also designs the custom AI chips that Google, Meta, OpenAI and others are building to rely less on Nvidia.So whichever way the biggest buyers turn, the work runs through Broadcom, and the risk sits with a handful of very powerful customers.

Broadcom is paid whether the cloud giants stay with Nvidia or leave

United States

Marvell Technology, Inc. develops and produces semiconductors and related technology. The Company offers security and networking platform, secure data processing, networking, and storage solutions. Marvell Technology serves customers worldwide.

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Marvell Technology (MRVL US)

Downgrading Manufacturing to Market Weight; Semiconductor Buys: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MU, AMD, and More

Downgrading Manufacturing $XLI to Market Weight; Buy $SPX and $QQQ Pullbacks to 20-Day MA. Semiconductor buy ideas on pullbacks (remain overweight)...

Vermilion Research

[Part 1] Co-Packaged Optics: The Case For, and the Fine Print

Co-Packaged optics offers power savings, but risks signal integrity and yield issues, making yield and testing the key economic constraints in the...

Mint Finance

Ep 155: Broadcom/Marvell Earnings, Copper to Fiber, and Apple News!

Overall, Hock Tan's optimistic and detailed presentation on Broadcom's strong quarterly results, future growth prospects, and focus on AI revenue...

The Circuit

TSMC's chief says the AI bottleneck is its factories, not the power grid

Almost every advanced AI chip, whoever designs it, is made by one company, TSMC, mostly in Taiwan. Its chief executive says those factories, not...

The Physical Layer

Broadcom is paid whether the cloud giants stay with Nvidia or leave

Broadcom makes the switch chips that let thousands of AI processors work as one machine, whoever made the processors. It also designs the custom...

The Physical Layer

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Downgrading Manufacturing to Market Weight; Semiconductor Buys: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MU, AMD, and More

Downgrading Manufacturing $XLI to Market Weight; Buy $SPX and $QQQ Pullbacks to 20-Day MA. Semiconductor buy ideas on pullbacks (remain overweight)...

Vermilion Research

[Part 1] Co-Packaged Optics: The Case For, and the Fine Print

​Co-Packaged optics offers power savings, but risks signal integrity and yield issues, making yield and testing the key economic constraints in the...

Mint Finance

Ep 155: Broadcom/Marvell Earnings, Copper to Fiber, and Apple News!

Overall, Hock Tan's optimistic and detailed presentation on Broadcom's strong quarterly results, future growth prospects, and focus on AI revenue...

The Circuit

TSMC's chief says the AI bottleneck is its factories, not the power grid

Almost every advanced AI chip, whoever designs it, is made by one company, TSMC, mostly in Taiwan. Its chief executive says those factories, not...

The Physical Layer

Broadcom is paid whether the cloud giants stay with Nvidia or leave

Broadcom makes the switch chips that let thousands of AI processors work as one machine, whoever made the processors. It also designs the custom...

The Physical Layer

Co-Packaged optics offers power savings, but risks signal integrity and yield issues, making yield and testing the key economic constraints in the...