Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>As we head into Q4 earnings season we remain bullish on the broad market. Our bullish outlook is supported by the themes highlighted in this report.  In addition, we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Discretionary and Technology: Casinos &amp; Gaming, Large-Cap, Semiconductors, Mid-Cap, Semiconductors, Small-Cap, Software, Design Solutions.</p>

As we head into Q4 earnings season we remain bullish on the broad market. Our bullish outlook is supported by the themes highlighted in this report.  In addition, we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Discretionary and Technology: Casinos &amp; Gaming, Large-Cap, Semiconductors, Mid-Cap, Semiconductors, Small-Cap, Software, Design Solutions.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Growth Surging Relative to Value

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Taiwan and US chips rebounded from the prior week's record selloff, but unevenly: semiconductor-equipment makers led while the server assemblers that led the prior leg fell.</li>
<li>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)</a>'s 3nm and packaging lines full, Google moved to split its next AI chips across Intel, Samsung<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener"></a>, Marvell, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener"></a>Broadcom, and Mediatek.</li>
<li>Memory stayed tight: SK Hynix will triple capacity by 2034, NVIDIA trimmed its Vera Rubin specs to fit supply, and Taiwan's listed firms posted a record revenure growth in May.</li>
</ul>


Taiwan and US chips rebounded from the prior week's record selloff, but unevenly: semiconductor-equipment makers led while the server assemblers that led the prior leg fell.
With TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)'s 3nm and packaging lines full, Google moved to split its next AI chips across Intel, Samsung, Marvell, Broadcom, and Mediatek.
Memory stayed tight: SK Hynix will triple capacity by 2034, NVIDIA trimmed its Vera Rubin specs to fit supply, and Taiwan's listed firms posted a record revenure growth in May.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Chips Rebound After Record Selloff; Rotation Out of Servers Into Semi Equipment

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in June but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 8.65% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$12.5bn. There are 4 stocks with over a yard and a half to trade.</li>
<li>The largest flows will be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/micron-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13382:1" rel="noopener">Micron Technology (MU US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-micro-devices-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19009:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">TSMC - ADR (TSM US)</a>. </li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in June but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 8.65% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$12.5bn. There are 4 stocks with over a yard and a half to trade.
The largest flows will be in NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US), Intel Corp (INTC US), Micron Technology (MU US), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) and TSMC - ADR (TSM US). 


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$12.5bn Trade

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage, Quiddity Advisors

Anjana Amarasuriya

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The ADDs/DELs for SP500, SP MidCap400, and SP SmallCap600 indices for the June 2026 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 5 June 2026.</li>
<li>There are 2 ADD/DELs for the SP 500, all of which will also be added to and deleted from the SP 500 Equal Weight and their corresponding Select Sector indices.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for each of these confirmed index changes. We see over $52bn of flows, one-way.</li>
</ul>


The ADDs/DELs for SP500, SP MidCap400, and SP SmallCap600 indices for the June 2026 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 5 June 2026.
There are 2 ADD/DELs for the SP 500, all of which will also be added to and deleted from the SP 500 Equal Weight and their corresponding Select Sector indices.
In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for each of these confirmed index changes. We see over $52bn of flows, one-way.


Quiddity SP 500 Jun26 Results: 100% Hit Rate On ADDs; Over US$52bn Combined One-Way Flow

<ul>
<li>COMPUTEX and GTC Taipei drove TSMC and the TAIEX to records, before a US$1.3tn AI selloff in the U.S. sent Taiwan index futures down a record 6.65%.</li>
<li>The trigger was expectations, not fundamentals: Broadcom beat but held rather than raised its long-term AI target, and a hot US jobs report killed Fed rate-cut hopes.</li>
<li>Yet demand kept accelerating through the rout: Winbond, Foxconn and Aspeed posted record sales, and Apollo and Blackstone closed US$35bn to buy AI chips for Anthropic.</li>
</ul>


COMPUTEX and GTC Taipei drove TSMC and the TAIEX to records, before a US$1.3tn AI selloff in the U.S. sent Taiwan index futures down a record 6.65%.
The trigger was expectations, not fundamentals: Broadcom beat but held rather than raised its long-term AI target, and a hot US jobs report killed Fed rate-cut hopes.
Yet demand kept accelerating through the rout: Winbond, Foxconn and Aspeed posted record sales, and Apollo and Blackstone closed US$35bn to buy AI chips for Anthropic.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: COMPUTEX Drives TSMC to Records, Then a US$1.3tn AI Selloff

United States

Marvell Technology, Inc. develops and produces semiconductors and related technology. The Company offers security and networking platform, secure data processing, networking, and storage solutions. Marvell Technology serves customers worldwide.

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Marvell Technology (MRVL US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Growth Surging Relative to Value

As we head into Q4 earnings season we remain bullish on the broad market. Our bullish outlook is supported by the themes highlighted in this...

Vermilion Research

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Chips Rebound After Record Selloff; Rotation Out of Servers Into Semi Equipment

Taiwan and US chips rebounded unevenly, with semiconductor-equipment makers leading while server assemblers fell. TSMC's full capacity led Google...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$12.5bn Trade

There are no constituent changes for the index in June but there are float and capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.65% resulting in a...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity SP 500 Jun26 Results: 100% Hit Rate On ADDs; Over US$52bn Combined One-Way Flow

100% hit rate on our June 2026 SP 500 ADDs. Over US$52bn in combined one way flows across the SP 500 family for the June index rebalance, plus a...

Anjana Amarasuriya

Taiwan Tech Weekly: COMPUTEX Drives TSMC to Records, Then a US$1.3tn AI Selloff

COMPUTEX and GTC Taipei drove TSMC & TAIEX to records, but a US$1.3tn U.S. AI selloff caused Taiwan index futures to drop 6.65%. Nevertheless,...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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U.S. Equity Strategy: Growth Surging Relative to Value

As we head into Q4 earnings season we remain bullish on the broad market. Our bullish outlook is supported by the themes highlighted in this...

Vermilion Research

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Chips Rebound After Record Selloff; Rotation Out of Servers Into Semi Equipment

​Taiwan and US chips rebounded unevenly, with semiconductor-equipment makers leading while server assemblers fell. TSMC's full capacity led Google...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$12.5bn Trade

There are no constituent changes for the index in June but there are float and capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.65% resulting in a...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity SP 500 Jun26 Results: 100% Hit Rate On ADDs; Over US$52bn Combined One-Way Flow

100% hit rate on our June 2026 SP 500 ADDs. Over US$52bn in combined one way flows across the SP 500 family for the June index rebalance, plus a...

Anjana Amarasuriya

Taiwan Tech Weekly: COMPUTEX Drives TSMC to Records, Then a US$1.3tn AI Selloff

​COMPUTEX and GTC Taipei drove TSMC & TAIEX to records, but a US$1.3tn U.S. AI selloff caused Taiwan index futures to drop 6.65%. Nevertheless,...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan and US chips rebounded unevenly, with semiconductor-equipment makers leading while server assemblers fell. TSMC's full capacity led Google...

COMPUTEX and GTC Taipei drove TSMC & TAIEX to records, but a US$1.3tn U.S. AI selloff caused Taiwan index futures to drop 6.65%. Nevertheless,...