Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Marvell Technology Inc.'s first-quarter fiscal 2026 results reveal a mixed bag of impressive growth, strategic maneuvers, and cautious optimism amid ongoing global economic uncertainties.</li><li>The company achieved record revenues of $1.895 billion, reflecting a robust 63% year-over-year growth and surpassing the midpoint of their guidance.</li><li>This growth was primarily driven by the data center end market, which accounted for 76% of total revenue, fueled by heightened demand for AI-driven solutions.</li></ul>

Marvell Technology Inc.'s first-quarter fiscal 2026 results reveal a mixed bag of impressive growth, strategic maneuvers, and cautious optimism amid ongoing global economic uncertainties.The company achieved record revenues of $1.895 billion, reflecting a robust 63% year-over-year growth and surpassing the midpoint of their guidance.This growth was primarily driven by the data center end market, which accounted for 76% of total revenue, fueled by heightened demand for AI-driven solutions.

Marvell Technology: How Is The Management Leveraging AI & Data Center Market Growth?

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>2025 AI revenue ~US$19bn, up 55-60% YoY. Similar growth in 2026 or $~30bn. Mngt declined to update 2027 addressable market (SAM), previously stated at $60-90bn. That looks too high.</li>
<li>Risk of disappointment for 2027? No, Consensus is too low. Our estimate for 2026 revenue is $79bn versus consensus at $73bn, $95bn in ’27 vs Consensus $83.</li>
<li>Consensus for AI stocks is too low. But AVGO is expensive at 33x FY26 Consensus, most likely ~30x and ~25x 2027 if I’m correct. That’s more expensive than NVDA.</li>
</ul>


2025 AI revenue ~US$19bn, up 55-60% YoY. Similar growth in 2026 or $~30bn. Mngt declined to update 2027 addressable market (SAM), previously stated at $60-90bn. That looks too high.
Risk of disappointment for 2027? No, Consensus is too low. Our estimate for 2026 revenue is $79bn versus consensus at $73bn, $95bn in ’27 vs Consensus $83.
Consensus for AI stocks is too low. But AVGO is expensive at 33x FY26 Consensus, most likely ~30x and ~25x 2027 if I’m correct. That’s more expensive than NVDA.


AVGO Results Good. 55-60% AI Growth in 2025, Same in 26. Consensus Is ~10% Too Low, Stock Expensive

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Under the US tariffs, we have to seriously consider whether <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> can achieve 25% growth in 2025.  </li>
<li>We have conducted two scenario analyses and anticipate a likely loss of above 8.5% in 2025 revenue for TSMC, especially related to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a>.  </li>
<li>The stock price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is expected to be somewhat reshuffled in the current US-China tariff environment.  </li>
</ul>


Under the US tariffs, we have to seriously consider whether Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) can achieve 25% growth in 2025.  
We have conducted two scenario analyses and anticipate a likely loss of above 8.5% in 2025 revenue for TSMC, especially related to Apple (AAPL US).  
The stock price of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is expected to be somewhat reshuffled in the current US-China tariff environment.  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for US Tariff! (II)

<ul><li>Marvell Technology, Inc. recently reported robust performance in its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025, driven by exceptional growth in its data center segment, which was boosted by strong AI demand and effective execution.</li><li>The company registered record revenues of $1.817 billion for the quarter, representing a 20% sequential and 27% year-over-year increase.</li><li>Impressively, the data center end market accounted for 75% of Marvell's total revenue in the quarter, fueled primarily by custom AI silicon programs and strong shipments of electro-optics products.</li></ul>

Marvell Technology, Inc. recently reported robust performance in its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025, driven by exceptional growth in its data center segment, which was boosted by strong AI demand and effective execution.The company registered record revenues of $1.817 billion for the quarter, representing a 20% sequential and 27% year-over-year increase.Impressively, the data center end market accounted for 75% of Marvell's total revenue in the quarter, fueled primarily by custom AI silicon programs and strong shipments of electro-optics products.

Marvell Technology Inc.: Expansion Into Custom Silicon As A Vital Factor Driving Growth!

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>TSMC's Latest Global Expansion Plans, Visualized; Taiwan Manufacturing Will Continue to Remain One Generation Ahead of Overseas</li>
<li>TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Invest Further in US up to 100bn; Intel Foundry Service Gets Direct Clients.</li>
<li>Memory Monitor: Nanya Tech Soared on DRAM Recovery and Custom HBM News </li>
</ul>


TSMC's Latest Global Expansion Plans, Visualized; Taiwan Manufacturing Will Continue to Remain One Generation Ahead of Overseas
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Invest Further in US up to 100bn; Intel Foundry Service Gets Direct Clients.
Memory Monitor: Nanya Tech Soared on DRAM Recovery and Custom HBM News 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's Expansion Visualized; Implications of New U.S. Investment; New HBM Memory

United States

Marvell Technology, Inc. develops and produces semiconductors and related technology. The Company offers security and networking platform, secure data processing, networking, and storage solutions. Marvell Technology serves customers worldwide.

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Marvell Technology (MRVL US)

Marvell Technology: How Is The Management Leveraging AI & Data Center Market Growth?

Marvell Technology Inc.'s first-quarter fiscal 2026 results reveal a mixed bag of impressive growth, strategic maneuvers, and cautious optimism...

Baptista Research

AVGO Results Good. 55-60% AI Growth in 2025, Same in 26. Consensus Is ~10% Too Low, Stock Expensive

AI revenue projected to reach $19bn in 2025, $30bn in 2026. Consensus estimates for Broadcom revenues are too low, but AVGO is more expensive than...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for US Tariff! (II)

US tariffs may hinder Taiwan Semiconductor's growth, with potential revenue loss in 2025, particularly from Apple, impacting stock price reshuffling.

Patrick Liao

Marvell Technology Inc.: Expansion Into Custom Silicon As A Vital Factor Driving Growth!

Marvell Technology, Inc. recently reported robust performance in its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025, driven by exceptional growth in its data...

Baptista Research

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's Expansion Visualized; Implications of New U.S. Investment; New HBM Memory

TSMC plans additional $100bn for the U.S., but Taiwan will remain one generation ahead of overseas manufacturing; Nanya targeting new custom High...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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Marvell Technology: How Is The Management Leveraging AI & Data Center Market Growth?

Marvell Technology Inc.'s first-quarter fiscal 2026 results reveal a mixed bag of impressive growth, strategic maneuvers, and cautious optimism...

Baptista Research

AVGO Results Good. 55-60% AI Growth in 2025, Same in 26. Consensus Is ~10% Too Low, Stock Expensive

​AI revenue projected to reach $19bn in 2025, $30bn in 2026. Consensus estimates for Broadcom revenues are too low, but AVGO is more expensive than...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for US Tariff! (II)

​US tariffs may hinder Taiwan Semiconductor's growth, with potential revenue loss in 2025, particularly from Apple, impacting stock price reshuffling.

Patrick Liao

Marvell Technology Inc.: Expansion Into Custom Silicon As A Vital Factor Driving Growth!

Marvell Technology, Inc. recently reported robust performance in its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025, driven by exceptional growth in its data...

Baptista Research

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's Expansion Visualized; Implications of New U.S. Investment; New HBM Memory

​TSMC plans additional $100bn for the U.S., but Taiwan will remain one generation ahead of overseas manufacturing; Nanya targeting new custom High...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

AI revenue projected to reach $19bn in 2025, $30bn in 2026. Consensus estimates for Broadcom revenues are too low, but AVGO is more expensive than...

US tariffs may hinder Taiwan Semiconductor's growth, with potential revenue loss in 2025, particularly from Apple, impacting stock price reshuffling.

TSMC plans additional $100bn for the U.S., but Taiwan will remain one generation ahead of overseas manufacturing; Nanya targeting new custom High...