Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage, Quiddity Advisors

Anjana Amarasuriya

Index Rebalance and Special Situations Coverage

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SP 500 index tracks the 500 largest US-listed names and is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world. </li>
<li>We expect two changes during the March 2026 regular rebalance. One intra-review index change is possible but unlikely before the regular rebalance is announced.</li>
<li>One name stands out as more interesting than the others.</li>
</ul>


The SP 500 index tracks the 500 largest US-listed names and is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world. 
We expect two changes during the March 2026 regular rebalance. One intra-review index change is possible but unlikely before the regular rebalance is announced.
One name stands out as more interesting than the others.


Quiddity Leaderboard SP500/600 Mar26 Rebal: Base Date Is Less Than A Month Away

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The AI buildout is evolving into a capital cycle; financing conditions and infrastructure activation now shape deployment pace.</li>
<li>Nvidia is moving upstream by anchoring infrastructure capacity, while companies like Supermicro, Vertiv, and Eaton play critical roles in converting shipped GPUs into operational compute.</li>
<li>Infrastructure integrators, power providers, and custom silicon firms are emerging as key parallel beneficiaries of the AI expansion.</li>
</ul>


The AI buildout is evolving into a capital cycle; financing conditions and infrastructure activation now shape deployment pace.
Nvidia is moving upstream by anchoring infrastructure capacity, while companies like Supermicro, Vertiv, and Eaton play critical roles in converting shipped GPUs into operational compute.
Infrastructure integrators, power providers, and custom silicon firms are emerging as key parallel beneficiaries of the AI expansion.


Nvidia Is Becoming a Capacity Anchor as the AI Buildout Turns Into a Capital Cycle

<ul>
<li>The SP Select Sector indices are a family of 11 sector-specific indices derived from the SP 500 index based on GICS (Global Industry Classification Standard) classifications.</li>
<li>They rebalance with SP500 name changes and capping mechanisms when the SP500 index is rebalanced. Here we present expected flows for the March 2026 rebal.  </li>
<li>We expect one-way flow of ~US$7.4bn in March 2026 for the Select Sector indices in total. There is of course an additional US$9.7bn for the SP500, $7.8bn for Equal Weight.</li>
</ul>


The SP Select Sector indices are a family of 11 sector-specific indices derived from the SP 500 index based on GICS (Global Industry Classification Standard) classifications.
They rebalance with SP500 name changes and capping mechanisms when the SP500 index is rebalanced. Here we present expected flows for the March 2026 rebal.  
We expect one-way flow of ~US$7.4bn in March 2026 for the Select Sector indices in total. There is of course an additional US$9.7bn for the SP500, $7.8bn for Equal Weight.


Quiddity Leaderboard SP Select Sector Mar26 Rebal: Still Over US$7bn One-Way Flow Expected

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

<ul>
<li>The $12.3bn acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dayforce-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27122:1" rel="noopener">Dayforce (DAY US)</a> by Thoma Bravo was completed today, 4 Feb.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ciena-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15442:1" rel="noopener">Ciena Corp (CIEN US)</a> is forecasted to be the primary replacement candidate of DAY in S&amp;P500 following a price surge of more than 170% over the past 6 months.</li>
<li>Other replacement candidates include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alnylam-pharmaceuticals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2191:1" rel="noopener">Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cheniere-energy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16683:1" rel="noopener">Cheniere Energy (LNG US)</a> due to sector balance, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coherent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10180:1" rel="noopener">Coherent (COHR US)</a> due to market cap.</li>
</ul>


The $12.3bn acquisition of Dayforce (DAY US) by Thoma Bravo was completed today, 4 Feb.

Ciena Corp (CIEN US) is forecasted to be the primary replacement candidate of DAY in S&amp;P500 following a price surge of more than 170% over the past 6 months.
Other replacement candidates include Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US) and Cheniere Energy (LNG US) due to sector balance, and Coherent (COHR US) due to market cap.


Ciena Corp (CIEN US): Poised for S&P500 Inclusion Amid Price Surge and Dayforce Acquisition

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

Montage Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>As a global leader in fabless IC design, focusing on interconnect solutions for cloud computing and AI infrastructure, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/montage-technology-co-ltd-c827a672-7027-4114-b744-0fc66a5d1d98" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46333:1" rel="noopener">Montage Technology (6809 HK)</a>'s 3-year EPS CAGR will reach 43.2%.</li>
<li>We assess a fair price at HK$147.4, or 45.8x FY26 PER, a 20% premium over <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rambus-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7214:1" rel="noopener">Rambus (RMBS US)</a>, the third-largest player globally. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/montage-technology-co-ltd-c827a672-7027-4114-b744-0fc66a5d1d98" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46333:1" rel="noopener"></a>
</li>
<li>This represents a 37.9% upside, also putting it in line with the average of 28% discount of the H-share IPOs to A-shares since 2025.</li>
</ul>


As a global leader in fabless IC design, focusing on interconnect solutions for cloud computing and AI infrastructure, Montage Technology (6809 HK)'s 3-year EPS CAGR will reach 43.2%.
We assess a fair price at HK$147.4, or 45.8x FY26 PER, a 20% premium over Rambus (RMBS US), the third-largest player globally. 

This represents a 37.9% upside, also putting it in line with the average of 28% discount of the H-share IPOs to A-shares since 2025.


Montage Technology (6809 HK) IPO: Decent Upside Potential

United States

Marvell Technology, Inc. develops and produces semiconductors and related technology. The Company offers security and networking platform, secure data processing, networking, and storage solutions. Marvell Technology serves customers worldwide.

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Marvell Technology (MRVL US)

Quiddity Leaderboard SP500/600 Mar26 Rebal: Base Date Is Less Than A Month Away

The base date is approaching next week and this is a good time to revisit the insight. Lamb Weston has replaced Molina Healthcare in our top...

Anjana Amarasuriya

Nvidia Is Becoming a Capacity Anchor as the AI Buildout Turns Into a Capital Cycle

The AI buildout is now a capital cycle; Nvidia and others are key players in converting GPUs into operational compute, while infra integrators and...

Mint Finance

Quiddity Leaderboard SP Select Sector Mar26 Rebal: Still Over US$7bn One-Way Flow Expected

The SP Sector Select indices get rebalanced at the same time with the SP500/EW indices and add more one-way flow. Across the three of them, we see...

Anjana Amarasuriya

Ciena Corp (CIEN US): Poised for S&P500 Inclusion Amid Price Surge and Dayforce Acquisition

CIEN replaced DAY in S&P500 migrating from MidCap at the close of 6 February with total passive fund volume of 30m shares and estimated net demand...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Montage Technology (6809 HK) IPO: Decent Upside Potential

Montage Technology's 3-year EPS CAGR is projected to be 43.2%, with a fair price estimated at HK$147.4, a 20% premium over Rambus. This offers a...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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Quiddity Leaderboard SP500/600 Mar26 Rebal: Base Date Is Less Than A Month Away

The base date is approaching next week and this is a good time to revisit the insight. Lamb Weston has replaced Molina Healthcare in our top...

Anjana Amarasuriya

Nvidia Is Becoming a Capacity Anchor as the AI Buildout Turns Into a Capital Cycle

​The AI buildout is now a capital cycle; Nvidia and others are key players in converting GPUs into operational compute, while infra integrators and...

Mint Finance

Quiddity Leaderboard SP Select Sector Mar26 Rebal: Still Over US$7bn One-Way Flow Expected

The SP Sector Select indices get rebalanced at the same time with the SP500/EW indices and add more one-way flow. Across the three of them, we see...

Anjana Amarasuriya

Ciena Corp (CIEN US): Poised for S&P500 Inclusion Amid Price Surge and Dayforce Acquisition

CIEN replaced DAY in S&P500 migrating from MidCap at the close of 6 February with total passive fund volume of 30m shares and estimated net demand...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Montage Technology (6809 HK) IPO: Decent Upside Potential

​Montage Technology's 3-year EPS CAGR is projected to be 43.2%, with a fair price estimated at HK$147.4, a 20% premium over Rambus. This offers a...

Osbert Tang, CFA

The AI buildout is now a capital cycle; Nvidia and others are key players in converting GPUs into operational compute, while infra integrators and...

Montage Technology's 3-year EPS CAGR is projected to be 43.2%, with a fair price estimated at HK$147.4, a 20% premium over Rambus. This offers a...