Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Capital Markets

This report gives an update on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumble-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31309:1" rel="noopener">Bumble (BMBL US)</a>'s IPO valuations and upside potential, company's revenue drivers, risks and overview of online dating segment and its growth outlook. Pandemic-led social isolation has led singles (or the romantically alone) to increasingly resort to dating apps to find companionship. Online dating had become more popular over the last decade. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumble-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31309:1" rel="noopener">Bumble (BMBL US)</a>, that owns the second highest-grossing dating app globally, will list today (Feb 11th), just ahead of Valentine's day, the big day of love for couples worldwide. Interestingly, Bumble's IPO was so overwhelmingly wooed by investors that it had to upsize the offer twice!! It has now issued 50 million shares at USD43/share (raising around USD2.15 Bn and valuing the company at USD 8 Bn) as against earlier upsized issue size of 45 million shares at USD39/share (vs. original IPO offer of 34.5 million shares at a price range of $28 to $30 a share). <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumble-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31309:1" rel="noopener">Bumble (BMBL US)</a> 's eponymous dating app is noted for its first-of-the-kind 'women make the first move' feature that seeks to reset dating norms (and offer a better user experience) distinguishes it from other players by attracting more women users/subscribers to the platform. It has been favourably rated ahead of other dating apps when it comes to singles 'actually' seeking a relationship. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumble-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31309:1" rel="noopener">Bumble (BMBL US)</a> was founded by Whitney Wolfe, previously co-founder of Tinder, the bigger and widely known dating app for all occasions. Bumble stands out as one of the few US-based tech companies founded by a woman, with a predominantly women-led board and management team. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackstone-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27166:1" rel="noopener">Blackstone Group LP (BX US)</a> is a significant private investor in Bumble.

This report gives an update on Bumble (BMBL US)'s IPO valuations and upside potential, company's revenue drivers, risks and overview of online dating segment and its growth outlook. Pandemic-led social isolation has led singles (or the romantically alone) to increasingly resort to dating apps to find companionship. Online dating had become more popular over the last decade. Bumble (BMBL US), that owns the second highest-grossing dating app globally, will list today (Feb 11th), just ahead of Valentine's day, the big day of love for couples worldwide. Interestingly, Bumble's IPO was so overwhelmingly wooed by investors that it had to upsize the offer twice!! It has now issued 50 million shares at USD43/share (raising around USD2.15 Bn and valuing the company at USD 8 Bn) as against earlier upsized issue size of 45 million shares at USD39/share (vs. original IPO offer of 34.5 million shares at a price range of $28 to $30 a share). Bumble (BMBL US) 's eponymous dating app is noted for its first-of-the-kind 'women make the first move' feature that seeks to reset dating norms (and offer a better user experience) distinguishes it from other players by attracting more women users/subscribers to the platform. It has been favourably rated ahead of other dating apps when it comes to singles 'actually' seeking a relationship. Bumble (BMBL US) was founded by Whitney Wolfe, previously co-founder of Tinder, the bigger and widely known dating app for all occasions. Bumble stands out as one of the few US-based tech companies founded by a woman, with a predominantly women-led board and management team. Blackstone Group LP (BX US) is a significant private investor in Bumble. 

Bumble IPO: The Dating App Where Women Lead. Likely Pop on Listing Today

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

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On 9 February, it was announced that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/match-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25903:1" rel="noopener">Match Group Inc (MTCH US)</a> has agreed to acquire <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/hyperconnect-ma-match-grp/update-1-match-group-to-buy-s-korean-social-media-firm-hyperconnect-for-1-73-bln-idUSL4N2KF4T1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hyperconnect</a> for $1.7 billion. Match Group is the biggest global player in the online dating industry and the biggest competitor to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumble-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31309:1" rel="noopener">Bumble (BMBL US)</a> which is getting ready to complete its IPO this week. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/hyperconnect-ma-match-grp/update-1-match-group-to-buy-s-korean-social-media-firm-hyperconnect-for-1-73-bln-idUSL4N2KF4T1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters</a> has mentioned that Hyperconnect reported revenue of more than $200 million in 2020 and it was profitable last year. With the valuation of $1.7 billion, this would suggest a P/S multiple of 8.6x.
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On 9 February, it was announced that Match Group Inc (MTCH US) has agreed to acquire Hyperconnect for $1.7 billion. Match Group is the biggest global player in the online dating industry and the biggest competitor to Bumble (BMBL US) which is getting ready to complete its IPO this week. Reuters has mentioned that Hyperconnect reported revenue of more than $200 million in 2020 and it was profitable last year. With the valuation of $1.7 billion, this would suggest a P/S multiple of 8.6x.


Match Group Buys Hyperconnect for $1.7 Billion

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Our base case valuation for Bumble Inc is implied price per share of $72.3, representing a market cap of $13.9 billion and EV of $11.9 billion. Our target price represents an 85% upside to the high end of the IPO price range of $39 per share. Our valuation uses an EV/S (2021) multiple of 15.9x, which is in line with its main competitor Match Group. Our valuation sensitivity analysis suggests a value range of $60.5 to $85.3 per share. 
We believe that the market is willing to put valuation multiples that are at least in line with its biggest competitor the Match Group due to three main reasons: a) Bumble has higher sales growth rate than the Match Group, b) Strong management team led by Whitney Herd. c) improving profit margins. 
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Our base case valuation for Bumble Inc is implied price per share of $72.3, representing a market cap of $13.9 billion and EV of $11.9 billion. Our target price represents an 85% upside to the high end of the IPO price range of $39 per share. Our valuation uses an EV/S (2021) multiple of 15.9x, which is in line with its main competitor Match Group. Our valuation sensitivity analysis suggests a value range of $60.5 to $85.3 per share. 
We believe that the market is willing to put valuation multiples that are at least in line with its biggest competitor the Match Group due to three main reasons: a) Bumble has higher sales growth rate than the Match Group, b) Strong management team led by Whitney Herd. c) improving profit margins. 


Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumble-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31309:1" rel="noopener">Bumble (BMBL US)</a> a US-headquartered women-centric dating app is expected to complete its IPO shortly. IPO price and valuation are well covered by Insight provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/douglas-kim" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:342" rel="noopener">Douglas Kim</a> in his Insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bumble-inc-ipo-you-ve-got-mail-fast-forward-23-years" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47950" rel="noopener">Bumble Inc IPO - "You've Got Mail" Fast Forward 23 Years</a> .
In this Insight, we look at the less disclosed and understood Bumble's India operations along with exploring the revenue potential the market offers. Our on-ground surveillance suggests this is one market and region to watch out and can potentially be one of the key drivers of revenue growth in the future.

Bumble (BMBL US) a US-headquartered women-centric dating app is expected to complete its IPO shortly. IPO price and valuation are well covered by Insight provider Douglas Kim in his Insight Bumble Inc IPO - "You've Got Mail" Fast Forward 23 Years .
In this Insight, we look at the less disclosed and understood Bumble's India operations along with exploring the revenue potential the market offers. Our on-ground surveillance suggests this is one market and region to watch out and can potentially be one of the key drivers of revenue growth in the future.

Bumble (BMBL US) | Swipe Right to Access World's Second-Largest Market

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumble-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31309:1" rel="noopener">Bumble (BMBL US)</a> is one of the leading dating apps in the US. <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/08/with-a-higher-ipo-valuation-is-bumble-aiming-for-match-coms-revenue-multiple/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bumble</a> has an IPO price range of $37 to $39 per share price and at these prices, the company could raise $1.66 billion to $1.76 billion in this IPO. The IPO price range was recently raised from the previous IPO price range of $28 to $30 per share. The number of shares being offered in the IPO was raised from 34.5 million to 45 million (excluding the underwriters' option of 6.75 million shares). Including the underwriters' option of 6.75 million shares, the company could raise nearly $2 billion at the high end of the IPO price range.

Bumble (BMBL US) is one of the leading dating apps in the US. Bumble has an IPO price range of $37 to $39 per share price and at these prices, the company could raise $1.66 billion to $1.76 billion in this IPO. The IPO price range was recently raised from the previous IPO price range of $28 to $30 per share. The number of shares being offered in the IPO was raised from 34.5 million to 45 million (excluding the underwriters' option of 6.75 million shares). Including the underwriters' option of 6.75 million shares, the company could raise nearly $2 billion at the high end of the IPO price range. 

Bumble Inc IPO - "You've Got Mail" Fast Forward 23 Years

United States

Match Group, Inc. is a dating service provider. The Company offers diverse portfolio of apps and services which enables connections across the spectrum of age, race, gender, sexual orientation, and backgrounds. Match Group serves customers worldwide.

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Match Group (MTCH US)

Bumble IPO: The Dating App Where Women Lead. Likely Pop on Listing Today

Bumble's IPO has been upsized twice before listing today. Insight offers an update on IPO valuations and upside, company's revenue drivers, risks...

Devi Subhakesan

Match Group Buys Hyperconnect for $1.7 Billion

On 9 February, it was announced that Match Group Inc (MTCH US) has agreed to acquire Hyperconnect for $1.7 billion. Match Group is the biggest...

Douglas Kim

Bumble IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation for Bumble Inc is implied price per share of $72.3, which represents an 85% upside to the high end of the IPO price range...

Douglas Kim

Bumble (BMBL US) | Swipe Right to Access World's Second-Largest Market

In this Insight, we look at the less disclosed and understood Bumble's India operations along with exploring the revenue potential the market offers.

Pranav Bhavsar

Bumble Inc IPO - "You've Got Mail" Fast Forward 23 Years

Bumble (BMBL US) is one of the leading dating apps in the US. Bumble has an IPO price range of $37 to $39 per share price. The company could raise...

Douglas Kim

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