Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 2,000+ insights published on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>In this cut, we examine the windfall for brokers amid market volatility and other tailwinds, index rule changes to accommodate megacap IPOs, and the prospects in markets for physical AI.</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut - a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 2,000+ insights published on Smartkarma.
In this cut, we examine the windfall for brokers amid market volatility and other tailwinds, index rule changes to accommodate megacap IPOs, and the prospects in markets for physical AI.
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.


Curator's Cut: Brokering Records, Race to SpaceX & The Rise of Physical AI

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japan's domestic credit growth is now running at 4.2% YoY in the latest month in February 2024. </li>
<li>The slope of Japan's domestic credit growth is greater than all developed Asia Pacific peer countries.</li>
<li>Weaker JPY can further raise interest in tourism, and USD translation of earnings for megabanks.</li>
</ul>


Japan's domestic credit growth is now running at 4.2% YoY in the latest month in February 2024. 
The slope of Japan's domestic credit growth is greater than all developed Asia Pacific peer countries.
Weaker JPY can further raise interest in tourism, and USD translation of earnings for megabanks.


Japan - Domestic Credit Growth Acceleration Higher Than Developed Asian Countries

Insurance & Central Asia-focused Analyst, KT Capital Group

Alec Tseung

Insurance & Central Asia-focused Analyst

<p>This Original aims to identify the key investment opportunities among the listed brokers in the three major East Asian countries - China, Japan, and Korea. </p><p>By looking at the development of the brokerage sectors in these three countries, we observe a general trend where upstart online brokers first compete against the more established brokers based on their cost and technological advantages. This then pushes the more established brokers to either focus on more lucrative wholesale businesses or adopt and invest in tech initiatives in order to stay competitive in the retail market.</p><p>After further establishing themselves in the retail market, these upstart online brokers then also diversify and expand into the more lucrative wealth/asset management or even wholesale businesses.  By gauging at which phase the broker is in this cycle, investors can have a good understanding of its future outlook.</p><p>In our opinion, Korean brokers currently offer the best value, while the Chinese pure-play online brokers offer the highest growth potential. As such, our pecking order, in terms of investment attractiveness, is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kiwoom-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20418:1" rel="noopener">Kiwoom Securities (039490 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/east-money-information-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8075:1" rel="noopener">East Money Information Co A (300059 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/futu-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27858:1" rel="noopener">Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monex-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14211:1" rel="noopener">Monex Group Inc (8698 JP)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huatai-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:449:1" rel="noopener">Huatai Securities Co Ltd (H) (6886 HK)</a>.  </p><h2>What is Original?</h2><p>In this Original, we look into the competitive landscape of the brokerage sectors in China, Japan, and Korea. 55 listed brokers from these three countries are included in this Original as the company universe for regression analysis. </p><p>Among them, a total of 8 brokers are chosen, with their company profiles separately presented, to further showcase and contrast the impact of competition and technological disruption. Based on this, a pecking order is then developed, both on a country and a company basis.</p>

This Original aims to identify the key investment opportunities among the listed brokers in the three major East Asian countries - China, Japan, and Korea. By looking at the development of the brokerage sectors in these three countries, we observe a general trend where upstart online brokers first compete against the more established brokers based on their cost and technological advantages. This then pushes the more established brokers to either focus on more lucrative wholesale businesses or adopt and invest in tech initiatives in order to stay competitive in the retail market.After further establishing themselves in the retail market, these upstart online brokers then also diversify and expand into the more lucrative wealth/asset management or even wholesale businesses.  By gauging at which phase the broker is in this cycle, investors can have a good understanding of its future outlook.In our opinion, Korean brokers currently offer the best value, while the Chinese pure-play online brokers offer the highest growth potential. As such, our pecking order, in terms of investment attractiveness, is Kiwoom Securities (039490 KS), East Money Information Co A (300059 CH), Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US), Monex Group Inc (8698 JP) / Huatai Securities Co Ltd (H) (6886 HK).  What is Original?In this Original, we look into the competitive landscape of the brokerage sectors in China, Japan, and Korea. 55 listed brokers from these three countries are included in this Original as the company universe for regression analysis. Among them, a total of 8 brokers are chosen, with their company profiles separately presented, to further showcase and contrast the impact of competition and technological disruption. Based on this, a pecking order is then developed, both on a country and a company basis.

Asian Brokers: A Competition Between Value and Growth

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><p>Our best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimano-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3777:1" rel="noopener">Shimano (7309 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitsu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16968:1" rel="noopener">Fujitsu (6702 JP)</a>.</p><div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/167/904/original/2020-10-28_05-35-42.png?1603830956" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="167904"></figure></div><div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/167/905/original/2020-10-28_05-36-25.png?1603831001" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="167905"></figure></div><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>57 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 49% Positive / 9% Neutral / 42% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change</strong>: -1.7 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -6.4% Quarter YoY / -5.9% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.4ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 12%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>39 Annual • 36 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 36% Positive / 8% Neutral / 56% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 53% Positive / 6% Neutral / 42% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -1.1 points</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is Shimano (7309 JP) and Fujitsu (6702 JP).Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS57 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 49% Positive / 9% Neutral / 42% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -1.7 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -6.4% Quarter YoY / -5.9% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.4ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 12%
39 Annual • 36 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 36% Positive / 8% Neutral / 56% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 53% Positive / 6% Neutral / 42% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -1.1 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​27 Online Brokers, Hoya, Shin-Etsu, Fujitsu..

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/115/170/original/2020-01-28_05-14-43.png?1580156104" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="115170"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>TRACKING RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS</strong> - As the 'season' for quarterly results picks up again, this series of daily insights will summarise the announcements released over the previous twenty-four hours and highlight 'winners' and 'losers' using our scoring methodology for both Results and Revisions. Until the number of daily announcements becomes excessive, we shall focus on companies with a market capitalisation fo over ¥50 billion.</p><p><strong>SCORING METHODOLOGY</strong> - <strong>Results Scores</strong> are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of company data for Revenues, Operating Income and Operating Margin and, for each, measure the rate, degree and consistency of change. The score has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. The <strong>Forecast/Revision Score</strong> is based on both Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month (TTM) or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted. This score also has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period.  The combined<strong> Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS)</strong> is the average of the<strong> Results Score</strong> and the<strong> Forecasts/Revision Score</strong>. These scores are then cap-weight aggregated into Sector and Market Composite Scores for which the seventeen-year track record is shown above.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/115/171/original/2020-01-28_05-28-10.png?1580156919" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="115171"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics/Cabinet Office</div><p><strong>TRENDING LOWER</strong> - Although the<strong> Results Score</strong> has been moving sideways since November, the <strong>Forecast/Revision Score</strong> continues to make new ten-year lows. This downward trend is in accord with the <strong>Cabinet Office Business Conditions Leading Indicator</strong> which reached a new post-GFC low in November, before the impact of the Coronavirus.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>Note that our Scoring of both Results and Forecasts/Revisions has a strong momentum component which may lead reported earnings which tend to be a lagging indicator, hence the tighter correlations with the Leading Indicator and the market.</strong></p></div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsTRACKING RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS - As the 'season' for quarterly results picks up again, this series of daily insights will summarise the announcements released over the previous twenty-four hours and highlight 'winners' and 'losers' using our scoring methodology for both Results and Revisions. Until the number of daily announcements becomes excessive, we shall focus on companies with a market capitalisation fo over ¥50 billion.SCORING METHODOLOGY - Results Scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of company data for Revenues, Operating Income and Operating Margin and, for each, measure the rate, degree and consistency of change. The score has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. The Forecast/Revision Score is based on both Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month (TTM) or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted. This score also has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period.  The combined Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) is the average of the Results Score and the Forecasts/Revision Score. These scores are then cap-weight aggregated into Sector and Market Composite Scores for which the seventeen-year track record is shown above.Source • Japan Analytics/Cabinet OfficeTRENDING LOWER - Although the Results Score has been moving sideways since November, the Forecast/Revision Score continues to make new ten-year lows. This downward trend is in accord with the Cabinet Office Business Conditions Leading Indicator which reached a new post-GFC low in November, before the impact of the Coronavirus.Note that our Scoring of both Results and Forecasts/Revisions has a strong momentum component which may lead reported earnings which tend to be a lagging indicator, hence the tighter correlations with the Leading Indicator and the market.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 27th January - Too Early to Call a Bottom

Japan

MATSUI SECURITIES CO., LTD. provides online brokerage services through its website.  The Company offers investment news and educational services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Matsui Securities (8628 JP)

Curator's Cut: Brokering Records, Race to SpaceX & The Rise of Physical AI

This Curator’s Cut highlights windfall for brokers amidst market volatility, index rule changes for megacap IPOs, and prospects for physical AI....

Pranav Rao

Japan - Domestic Credit Growth Acceleration Higher Than Developed Asian Countries

Japan bank's domestic credit growth is stronger than most others in developed Asia, and the pace of growth is far stronger now compared with early...

Daniel Tabbush

Asian Brokers: A Competition Between Value and Growth

The Original looks into the current competitive landscape of the brokerage sectors in China, Japan, and Korea, with a view to developing a list of...

Alec Tseung

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/27 Online Brokers, Hoya, Shin-Etsu, Fujitsu..

• BEST & WORST • Our best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is Shimano (7309 JP) and Fujitsu (6702 JP).____________

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 27th January - Too Early to Call a Bottom

TRACKING RESULTS & REVISIONS - As the 'season' for quarterly results picks up again, this series of daily insights will summarise the...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Curator's Cut: Brokering Records, Race to SpaceX & The Rise of Physical AI

​This Curator’s Cut highlights windfall for brokers amidst market volatility, index rule changes for megacap IPOs, and prospects for physical AI....

Pranav Rao

Japan - Domestic Credit Growth Acceleration Higher Than Developed Asian Countries

Japan bank's domestic credit growth is stronger than most others in developed Asia, and the pace of growth is far stronger now compared with early...

Daniel Tabbush

Asian Brokers: A Competition Between Value and Growth

The Original looks into the current competitive landscape of the brokerage sectors in China, Japan, and Korea, with a view to developing a list of...

Alec Tseung

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​27 Online Brokers, Hoya, Shin-Etsu, Fujitsu..

• BEST & WORST • Our best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is Shimano (7309 JP) and Fujitsu (6702 JP).____________

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 27th January - Too Early to Call a Bottom

TRACKING RESULTS & REVISIONS - As the 'season' for quarterly results picks up again, this series of daily insights will summarise the...

Campbell Gunn

This Curator’s Cut highlights windfall for brokers amidst market volatility, index rule changes for megacap IPOs, and prospects for physical AI....

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/27 Online Brokers, Hoya, Shin-Etsu, Fujitsu..