Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>These pages have been full of long and short ideas on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> over the past couple of years as activists got their way, then Aeon did.</li>
<li>Then Aeon didn't, and had to pay up for a partial tender. The partial tender offer was fair-ish, but the post-tender trading has taken the shares back to DIRT CHEAP.</li>
<li>The merger between Tsuruha should get synergies, and the FY-end balance sheet shows it is substantially under-levered. Forward EV/EBIT multiples are lowest in the industry. But there's passive selling soon.</li>
</ul>


These pages have been full of long and short ideas on Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) over the past couple of years as activists got their way, then Aeon did.
Then Aeon didn't, and had to pay up for a partial tender. The partial tender offer was fair-ish, but the post-tender trading has taken the shares back to DIRT CHEAP.
The merger between Tsuruha should get synergies, and the FY-end balance sheet shows it is substantially under-levered. Forward EV/EBIT multiples are lowest in the industry. But there's passive selling soon.


Tsuruha (3391 JP) - New Balance Sheet, New Growth, New Price (Cheap!), And Passive Selling To Come?

Fintech, Real-time Big-Data Analytics Provider, Nowcast, Inc.

Ryota Hayashi

Fintech, Real-time Big-Data Analytics Provider

Nowcast, Inc.

We at Nowcast develop "Big-Data Economic Analytics Platforms".  We aim to revolutionize the financial markets by providing "accurate" and "real-time" analytics based on economic indicators and corporate activity data procured worldwide. 

Our Main Services

(1) Real-time Analytics
With our Nikkei CPI Now Index at our core, we provide real time analytics of global economic indicators such as POS Data. By utilizing Big-Data technology, we also provide real-time analytics of micro level data such as corporate earnings. 

(2) Big-Data Application Consulting
We too provide business consultation and conduct joint research on initiatives that strive to use data, such as from the operation capacity of construction machinery to number of passengers on railroad trains, as economic indicators. We provide continuous support to Data Scientists specialized in economics in their proposal stage, product development and up till its business development. 

(3) Monetary Policy Insights
With the proactive involvement of and support from from academicians in macroeconomics & key figures in the financial industry, we produce reports, conduct seminars and meetings that discuss about the forecast of financial markets, provide intellectual suggestions on asset allocation, etc. 

Macroeconomics

<ul class="ember-tether-target ember-tether-element-attached-top ember-tether-element-attached-left ember-tether-target-attached-top ember-tether-target-attached-right"><li>"Nikkei CPINow" is a statistical database produced by Nowcast Inc. that provides real-time economic statistics using so-called “big data” gathered on a real-time basis; making it possible to “nowcast” economic developments, that is, to gauge them almost in real time.</li><li>Nikkei CPINow was launched in January 2016, disseminating the new “CPINow” price indeces, which succeeds and improves upon the Nikkei UTokyo Daily Price Index.</li><li>This December 2016 Review looks into analyzing the current developments in Japan's economy based on The Nikkei CPINow S index &amp; T index.</li></ul>

"Nikkei CPINow" is a statistical database produced by Nowcast Inc. that provides real-time economic statistics using so-called “big data” gathered on a real-time basis; making it possible to “nowcast” economic developments, that is, to gauge them almost in real time.Nikkei CPINow was launched in January 2016, disseminating the new “CPINow” price indeces, which succeeds and improves upon the Nikkei UTokyo Daily Price Index.This December 2016 Review looks into analyzing the current developments in Japan's economy based on The Nikkei CPINow S index &amp; T index.

December 2016 Review of Current Developments in Japan's Economy

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

While it is not a given that a switch from a high growth, high interest rate environment to a low growth, low interest rate environment is a good one for equities in general, it should be good for defensive stocks, because these are the most bond-like of equities and the switch almost defines a fixed income bull market. Japan may not have been particularly high growth or high interest rate in 2000, but it was certainly higher growth and higher interest rate than today, and it is no surprise that defensive sectors like foods (+210% relative to Topix since 1999) and pharmaceuticals (+160%) have done very well over this time. The question, now, is whether this is set to continue, or whether we might have hit a turning point.

While it is not a given that a switch from a high growth, high interest rate environment to a low growth, low interest rate environment is a good one for equities in general, it should be good for defensive stocks, because these are the most bond-like of equities and the switch almost defines a fixed income bull market. Japan may not have been particularly high growth or high interest rate in 2000, but it was certainly higher growth and higher interest rate than today, and it is no surprise that defensive sectors like foods (+210% relative to Topix since 1999) and pharmaceuticals (+160%) have done very well over this time.  The question, now, is whether this is set to continue, or whether we might have hit a turning point.

Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/boj-the-80-trillion-yen-question" target="_blank">forecast by Europacifica</a>, BOJ offered symbolic (modest) easing today.- Though it left overnight rates at -0.1%, the BOJ increased its <a href="https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2016/k160729a.pdf" target="_blank">ETF purchases</a> from JPY3.3trn to JPY6trn by a 7-2 majority vote.  - As anticipated, the BOJ refrained from extreme policies such as unlimited monetisation of government debt ("helicopter money").  - The BOJ also declined to further distort the measure of inflation expectations encapsulated in the JGBi market, or to pressure liquidity further by increasing the…

As forecast by Europacifica, BOJ offered symbolic (modest) easing today.- Though it left overnight rates at -0.1%, the BOJ increased its ETF purchases from JPY3.3trn to JPY6trn by a 7-2 majority vote.  - As anticipated, the BOJ refrained from extreme policies such as unlimited monetisation of government debt ("helicopter money").  - The BOJ also declined to further distort the measure of inflation expectations encapsulated in the JGBi market, or to pressure liquidity further by increasing the…

BOJ Outcome: Symbolic Stimulus (As We Predicted)

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a>'s Partial Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-partial-tender-aeon-8267-partial-offer-for-tsuruha-3391-announced-at-2-900-share" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:213005" rel="noopener">[Japan Partial Tender] AEON (8267) Partial Offer for TSURUHA (3391) Announced at ¥2,900/Share</a> is trading rich.</li>
<li>The Conclusions/Trade section was clear on the near-term risks. There was good short-term upside. There may be less with the stock trading 0.5% away from the tender price.</li>
<li>With the stock trading so close, it changes the calculus, in both directions.</li>
</ul>



Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)'s Partial Offer for Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) discussed in [Japan Partial Tender] AEON (8267) Partial Offer for TSURUHA (3391) Announced at ¥2,900/Share is trading rich.
The Conclusions/Trade section was clear on the near-term risks. There was good short-term upside. There may be less with the stock trading 0.5% away from the tender price.
With the stock trading so close, it changes the calculus, in both directions.


[Japan Partial Tender] AEON (8267) Tender for TSURUHA (3391) Trading Rich

Japan

MatsukiyoCocokara & Co. operates drug store chains. The Company retails medicines, cosmetics, health foods, beauty care products, and other products. MatsukiyoCocokara & also operates supermarkets and home centers.

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MatsukiyoCocokara (3088 JP)

Tsuruha (3391 JP) - New Balance Sheet, New Growth, New Price (Cheap!), And Passive Selling To Come?

Tsuruha is -30% since late Dec25 when the Tender Offer ended. Goodwill amortization has scared some investors off since. The stock is now very...

Travis Lundy

December 2016 Review of Current Developments in Japan's Economy

"Nikkei CPINow" is a statistical database produced by Nowcast Inc. that provides real-time economic statistics using so-called “big data”...

Nowcast, Inc.

Death Rattle for Defensives?

While it is not a given that a switch from a high growth, high interest rate environment to a low growth, low interest rate environment is a good...

Pelham Smithers Associates

BOJ Outcome: Symbolic Stimulus (As We Predicted)

As forecast by Europacifica, BOJ offered symbolic (modest) easing today.- Though it left overnight rates at -0.1%, the BOJ increased its ETF...

Naomi Fink

[Japan Partial Tender] AEON (8267) Tender for TSURUHA (3391) Trading Rich

Tsuruha trading rich again. Arb opportunities are options. One doesn't have to trade a certain way simply because one has a position (stock or...

Travis Lundy

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