Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>After a rough week  - somewhat of an understatement - the Scheme Doc is now <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20250515/pdf/06js9q7r420csj.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a>.</li>
<li>The Court Meeting is the18th June; the last day of trading the 23rd June, and implementation 2nd July. The IE says fair with a valuation range of A$6.61-A$7.99/share.</li>
<li>This IE's valuation range doesn't factor in the pharma EO, given its ambiguity. Nor the FDA level. However, Mayne, ASIC AND Cosette have effectively signed off on the Doc's veracity. </li>
</ul>


After a rough week  - somewhat of an understatement - the Scheme Doc is now out.
The Court Meeting is the18th June; the last day of trading the 23rd June, and implementation 2nd July. The IE says fair with a valuation range of A$6.61-A$7.99/share.
This IE's valuation range doesn't factor in the pharma EO, given its ambiguity. Nor the FDA level. However, Mayne, ASIC AND Cosette have effectively signed off on the Doc's veracity. 


Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Scheme Booklet Dispatch Lends More Than A Veneer Of Support

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a> has released its scheme booklet regarding Cosette’s A$7.40 offer. The IE opines that the offer is fair and reasonable within its A$6.61-A$7.99 valuation range.</li>
<li>The high spread reflects concerns that recent events would trigger the MAC clause. Thankfully, the scheme booklet does not indicate that Cosette is contesting it.</li>
<li>Recent events should help quell retail opposition to the offer. At the last close and for a 2 July payment, the gross/annualised spread is 19.4%/262%. </li>
</ul>



Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) has released its scheme booklet regarding Cosette’s A$7.40 offer. The IE opines that the offer is fair and reasonable within its A$6.61-A$7.99 valuation range.
The high spread reflects concerns that recent events would trigger the MAC clause. Thankfully, the scheme booklet does not indicate that Cosette is contesting it.
Recent events should help quell retail opposition to the offer. At the last close and for a 2 July payment, the gross/annualised spread is 19.4%/262%. 


Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): The Scheme Booklet Should Calm Nerves

<ul>
<li>They say bad things come in threes. First, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a>announced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/therapeuticsmd-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18482:1" rel="noopener">TherapeuticsMD (TXMD US)</a>'s legal lawsuit. Then shares buckled in the wake of Trump’s executive order on pharma.</li>
<li>The final straw was the FDA accusing Mayne of giving misleading impression of the risks of its oral birth control pill. Shares are now a whopping 29% adrift of terms.</li>
<li>Mayne reckons the lawsuit and the FDA letter are not materially price sensitive; and it intends to move forward with the Scheme. A similar intention from Cosette would be welcome.</li>
</ul>


They say bad things come in threes. First, Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)announced TherapeuticsMD (TXMD US)'s legal lawsuit. Then shares buckled in the wake of Trump’s executive order on pharma.
The final straw was the FDA accusing Mayne of giving misleading impression of the risks of its oral birth control pill. Shares are now a whopping 29% adrift of terms.
Mayne reckons the lawsuit and the FDA letter are not materially price sensitive; and it intends to move forward with the Scheme. A similar intention from Cosette would be welcome.


Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Firm Support From Cosette Would Be Welcome About Now

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a> shares declined 15.76% after the public disclosure of an <a href="https://www.fda.gov/media/186470/download?attachment" target="_blank" rel="noopener">untitled FDA letter</a> relating to <a href="https://www.fda.gov/media/186471/download?attachment" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NEXTSTELLIS promotional materials</a>. </li>
<li>Mayne opines that the letter is not price sensitive as it does not prevent ongoing NEXTSTELLIS sales. Its response will likely withdraw the problematic presentation and adopt a compliance program. </li>
<li>The scheme is unlikely to be derailed, as I estimate that the MAC clause should not be triggered in the worst-case scenario of no NEXTSTELLIS sales. Risk/reward is attractive. </li>
</ul>



Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) shares declined 15.76% after the public disclosure of an untitled FDA letter relating to NEXTSTELLIS promotional materials. 
Mayne opines that the letter is not price sensitive as it does not prevent ongoing NEXTSTELLIS sales. Its response will likely withdraw the problematic presentation and adopt a compliance program. 
The scheme is unlikely to be derailed, as I estimate that the MAC clause should not be triggered in the worst-case scenario of no NEXTSTELLIS sales. Risk/reward is attractive. 


Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): High Risk/Reward as an FDA Letter Causes a Tailspin

<ul>
<li>On Monday, President Trump signed an executive order requiring drugmakers to start offering US patients the lowest price for a drug in a peer country (the Most Favoured Nation price).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a> is exposed as US accounts for 84% of revenue. I estimate that the average price reduction should be &lt;16% so that the MAC is not triggered.  </li>
<li>However, the MAC is not triggered if it arises "from any change in any law, regulation or rule of a Government Agency”, which should capture the Trump order.</li>
</ul>


On Monday, President Trump signed an executive order requiring drugmakers to start offering US patients the lowest price for a drug in a peer country (the Most Favoured Nation price).

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) is exposed as US accounts for 84% of revenue. I estimate that the average price reduction should be &lt;16% so that the MAC is not triggered.  
However, the MAC is not triggered if it arises "from any change in any law, regulation or rule of a Government Agency”, which should capture the Trump order.


Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Trump’s Executive Order Unlikely to Trigger the MAC Clause

Australia

Mayne Pharma Group Ltd. develops and manufactures oral pharmaceuticals.  The Company produces branded generics, specialty generics, and active pharmaceutical ingredients.

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Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)