IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a> shares declined 15.76% after the public disclosure of an <a href="https://www.fda.gov/media/186470/download?attachment" target="_blank" rel="noopener">untitled FDA letter</a> relating to <a href="https://www.fda.gov/media/186471/download?attachment" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NEXTSTELLIS promotional materials</a>. </li>
<li>Mayne opines that the letter is not price sensitive as it does not prevent ongoing NEXTSTELLIS sales. Its response will likely withdraw the problematic presentation and adopt a compliance program. </li>
<li>The scheme is unlikely to be derailed, as I estimate that the MAC clause should not be triggered in the worst-case scenario of no NEXTSTELLIS sales. Risk/reward is attractive. </li>
</ul>



Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) shares declined 15.76% after the public disclosure of an untitled FDA letter relating to NEXTSTELLIS promotional materials. 
Mayne opines that the letter is not price sensitive as it does not prevent ongoing NEXTSTELLIS sales. Its response will likely withdraw the problematic presentation and adopt a compliance program. 
The scheme is unlikely to be derailed, as I estimate that the MAC clause should not be triggered in the worst-case scenario of no NEXTSTELLIS sales. Risk/reward is attractive. 


Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): High Risk/Reward as an FDA Letter Causes a Tailspin

<ul>
<li>On Monday, President Trump signed an executive order requiring drugmakers to start offering US patients the lowest price for a drug in a peer country (the Most Favoured Nation price).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a> is exposed as US accounts for 84% of revenue. I estimate that the average price reduction should be &lt;16% so that the MAC is not triggered.  </li>
<li>However, the MAC is not triggered if it arises "from any change in any law, regulation or rule of a Government Agency”, which should capture the Trump order.</li>
</ul>


On Monday, President Trump signed an executive order requiring drugmakers to start offering US patients the lowest price for a drug in a peer country (the Most Favoured Nation price).

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) is exposed as US accounts for 84% of revenue. I estimate that the average price reduction should be &lt;16% so that the MAC is not triggered.  
However, the MAC is not triggered if it arises "from any change in any law, regulation or rule of a Government Agency”, which should capture the Trump order.


Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Trump’s Executive Order Unlikely to Trigger the MAC Clause

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Back on the 21st Feb 2025, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a>, a leader in dermatology and women’s health, <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20250221/pdf/06frs9hcfc6v05.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">entered into a Scheme</a> with US-based pharmaceutical outfit, Cosette Pharmaceuticals, at A$7.40/share. </li>
<li>The transaction is progressing - the HSR Act condition was <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20250507/pdf/06jhjxtpqyjtm5.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">satisfied</a> last week. A Scheme Booklet should be issued shortly, with an expected vote mid-June and late-June/early-July implementation. </li>
<li>Shares declined 3.1% yesterday over concerns a MAC could be triggered on the back of the Trump’s executive order on pharma. The impact is likely mixed, but leans neutral.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 21st Feb 2025, Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), a leader in dermatology and women’s health, entered into a Scheme with US-based pharmaceutical outfit, Cosette Pharmaceuticals, at A$7.40/share. 
The transaction is progressing - the HSR Act condition was satisfied last week. A Scheme Booklet should be issued shortly, with an expected vote mid-June and late-June/early-July implementation. 
Shares declined 3.1% yesterday over concerns a MAC could be triggered on the back of the Trump’s executive order on pharma. The impact is likely mixed, but leans neutral.


<ul>
<li>On the 21st Feb 2025, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a>, a leader in dermatology and women’s health, <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20250221/pdf/06frs9hcfc6v05.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed</a> with US-based pharmaceutical outfit, Cosette Pharmaceuticals.</li>
<li>Cosette is offering A$7.40/share, a 37% premium to last close. The Offer has the backing of Mayne's two largest shareholder, Viburnum and Bruce Mathieson, collectively holding 14.1%.</li>
<li>Mayne has now revised the Scheme timeline, with completion targeted late June, early July. This is done. </li>
</ul>


On the 21st Feb 2025, Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), a leader in dermatology and women’s health, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with US-based pharmaceutical outfit, Cosette Pharmaceuticals.
Cosette is offering A$7.40/share, a 37% premium to last close. The Offer has the backing of Mayne's two largest shareholder, Viburnum and Bruce Mathieson, collectively holding 14.1%.
Mayne has now revised the Scheme timeline, with completion targeted late June, early July. This is done. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a> entered a scheme implementation deed with Cosette Pharma at A$7.40 per share, a 36.8% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The offer is conditional on shareholder and FIRB approval. The vote is low-risk as the two largest shareholders are supportive.  </li>
<li>The offer is reasonable but not a knockout bid. At the last close and for an end-of-May payment, the gross/annualised spread was 2.8%/11.0%. </li>
</ul>



Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with Cosette Pharma at A$7.40 per share, a 36.8% premium to the undisturbed price.
The offer is conditional on shareholder and FIRB approval. The vote is low-risk as the two largest shareholders are supportive.  
The offer is reasonable but not a knockout bid. At the last close and for an end-of-May payment, the gross/annualised spread was 2.8%/11.0%. 


Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Cosette Pharma’s Binding Offer at A$7.40

Australia

Mayne Pharma Group Ltd. develops and manufactures oral pharmaceuticals.  The Company produces branded generics, specialty generics, and active pharmaceutical ingredients.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)